National Situation Update: Tuesday, August 1, 2006
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Heat Wave Settles in the East
Northeast: On Tuesday the area from New York City southward through eastern Virginia will experience temperatures in the 100s. Northern New England and northern New York state will be spared from the heat wave as the highs in those areas will be in the 70s and 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
South: The South will experience high heat and humidity on Tuesday with scattered or isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be mainly in the 90s with parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia and the Carolinas experiencing temperatures in the 100s.
Midwest: The northern Plains and Upper Midwest will experience cooler temperatures on Tuesday as the heat wave moves eastward. Heat and humidity will extend from southern Wisconsin and Lower Michigan southward through the Ohio Valley and southwestward through the central Plains. The upper Great Lakes to the western High Plains will experience scattered showers and storms, some severe. High temperatures will range from the 70s in much of the Dakotas and western Minnesota to the 90s and 100s in the Plains.
West: The West will continue to enjoy cooler weather on Tuesday, with highs in the 50s in some Rocky Mountain areas and the 60s along the Pacific Northwest coast. The Desert Southwest will however continue to see hot weather with highs around 100. (NWS, Media Sources)
U.S. Drought Conditions Not Likely to Improve Soon
The seasonal assessment released on July 20 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Climate Prediction Center (Camp Springs, Maryland) indicates the drought conditions will continue to affect large sections of the mid-section of the U.S. The July heat and dryness rapidly worsened conditions across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, resulting in drought expansion across much of the region. The NOAA Drought Outlook indicates that drought conditions will most likely continue in this region and also southward into Texas as well.
In contrast, the summer monsoon rains are likely to offer short-term relief to the Southwest, Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Relief for water supplies will likely need to wait until next winter's snow season, at the earliest, since snow melt is the major source for water in the West. Some improvement is also expected in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri, as well as the interior South. The best odds for improvement extend along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to northern Florida and into the southern Appalachians, as well as parts of southern Texas.
In a separate report, the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln indicates similar findings that more than 60 percent of the U. S. now has abnormally dry or drought conditions, stretching from Georgia to Arizona and across the north through the Dakotas, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin.
NOAA's National Weather Service provides the following drought update by region for the week of July 24-30:
The Midwest and Plains: Drought conditions worsened in Minnesota expanding into North Dakota's northeastern corner. In Iowa and South Dakota drought areas continued to expand in all directions. Along the border of South Dakota and Nebraska, the two areas of severe drought were connected. The Governor of South Dakota has declared a state of emergency to better handle the fires and drought-ravaged counties. In Nebraska severe drought conditions at the Kansas border were expanded to cover the remainder of south-central Nebraska.
The South: Severe drought conditions in Georgia were expanded into the southeastern corner of Tennessee and all of the Cumberland Plateau. In Alabama and Mississippi drought conditions have also worsened. In Louisiana year-to-date rainfall deficits are still large for New Orleans with 19.90 inches below normal and Baton Rouge 19.92 inches below normal. In Oklahoma, extreme drought conditions were expanded to cover the majority of the state forcing several towns to enforce immediate watering bans. In Texas the two separate areas of extreme drought located in the north-central region of the state were connected and expanded into the Dallas area.
The Rockies and the West: In Montana, the abnormally dry conditions were expanded to cover the remainder of the state. In Wyoming, abnormally dry and moderate conditions expanded further into the southwestern portions of the state. In addition, Washington and Oregon coastlines are beginning to show signs of dryness.
The heat wave during the past two weeks has increased the risk of wildfires over much of California, the Great Basin, the northern half of the Rockies and the High Plains Areas. Weather forecasts currently indicate that severe drought conditions will persist across large sections of the Southwest, Great Plains, Rio Grande Valley, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the South. (NOAA/NWS, media sources)
Tropical Activity
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea: At 5:00 am EDT August 1, Tropical Storm Chris (formerly Tropical Depression 03) with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph was located near latitude 16.6 north longitude 59.2 west or about 175 miles east of Antigua. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Chris is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general heading is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track Chris is expected to move over or near the Leeward Islands Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system today.
At 5:00 am EDT, A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands and for the British Virgin Islands.
Eastern Pacific: At 5:00 am EDT August 1, Tropical Storm Fabio was located near 14.8 north 124.6 west moving towards the west-northwest at 14 mph. Fabio has sustained winds near 40 mph. During the next 24-36 hours Fabio will move through a favorable environment for development, however after that period, the storm is expected to lose strength and become a remnant low.
At 5:00 am EDT August 1, Tropical Depression 08-E with wind speeds near 35 mph was located near 13.6 north 104.6 west or about 400 miles southwest of Acapulco Mexico moving toward the west at 8 mph.
Western Pacific: At 5:00 am EDT August 1, Tropical Storm 07-W with wind speeds near 50 mph was located near 17.4 north 117.6 east or approximately 300 miles north of Manila Philippines.(USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
Public Assistance PDAs for four counties in Colorado are scheduled to begin August 1, 2006.
Individual Assistance PDA started July 31 in Ohio. Public Assistance PDAs will begin on August 2 in Ohio and Illinois. (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
The National Preparedness Level continues at Level 5 (the highest level). Preparedness Level 5 means that multiple geographic areas are experiencing major incidents.
Initial attack activity was light throughout the nation with 159 new fires reported. Seven new large fires were reported: one each in Idaho, Montana, and Utah; and two each in Texas and Kansas.
Twelve large fires reached containment yesterday: one each in South Dakota, Kansas, Arizona, California, Nevada, and Montana; and two each in Idaho, Oregon, and Utah.
Dry and windy conditions are expected for portions of northern California, the Great Basin, Northwest, and Montana. Isolated, dry thunderstorms are predicted further south. Dry and windy conditions will continue in the Plains. (National Interagency Fire Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Tuesday, 01-Aug-2006 08:13:58 EDT