National Situation Update: Saturday, April 22, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Severe Weather Forecast for the South on Saturday

South: Severe weather is forecast for many parts of the South on Saturday as a cold front moves eastward. Severe thunderstorms are expected along the Atlantic coast in a wide area extending from Virginia to northern Florida. The storm systems will likely produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail. A few tornadoes are possible in the region. As the storm front moves out of the region, the South will be mainly dry and hot by Sunday.

West: The Pacific Northwest is expected to see warm temperatures in the 60s and sunny weather during the weekend. In other parts of the West, a cold front will produce some rain showers and mountain snow in the area extending from Montana to central California on Saturday.

Midwest: A new front will move into the Plains area during the weekend bringing very warm temperatures on Saturday, but conditions will change as the weekend progresses. The Great Lakes will see showers this weekend.

Northeast: Rain is forecast for New York and the Mid-Atlantic area on Saturday and Sunday with the possibility of several inches. Daytime highs will be in the 40s and 50s during the day over eastern New York and much of New England. (National Weather Service, media sources)

Spring Snow Storm in South Dakota

A spring snow storm with deep, wet snow and high winds moved across SD on April 19.  Snow depths of up to 46 inches with drifts of five to six feet were reported in the northern Black Hills. 

FEMA Region VIII reports that warm temperatures during Saturday and Sunday are expected to melt much of the snow cover from the Bear Lodge Mountains and northern Black Hills into far west South Dakota where stream levels have been steady or slowly rising.

The largest increase has occurred on the Belle Fourche River at the WY-SD border, where the river level has increased four feet.  Even with the large rises on the Belle Fourche River, gauging stations are still six to ten feet below flood stage. 

The Little Missouri River at Camp Crook has risen about two feet since April 20, 2006, but is currently six feet below flood stage.  With sunny skies and much warmer temperatures on April 21, 2006, the snow will melt rapidly.  The warm temperatures will cause most streams and rivers to run very high during the next few days. Lowland flooding is possible along most streams and rivers.  Plugged culverts and debris in the streams will cause additional flooding problems. 

State, county and local jurisdictions are responding as required and are conducting damage assessments in preparation for a Joint State/FEMA Public Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) scheduled for April 25 - 28, 2006. (Region VIII)

Potential Flooding in North Dakota

The rapid snowmelt of heavy winter snow accumulations compounded by spring rains and sudden warm temperatures is causing spring flooding in the Red River Valley.

As of April 21, 2006, flood warnings remained in effect for the northern Red and Pembina Rivers. Meteorologists for the Grand Forks Office of the National Weather Service (NWS) indicated river levels are steadily falling. Rainfall earlier in the week amounted to an average of one-quarter of one inch.

During the past week, the County Commissions for Cavalier, Ransom, Rolette and Towner Counties signed emergency declarations.  On April 21, 2006, the City of Neche submitted a Disaster Declaration to the State Operations Center (SOC).

The Governor's office, State Water Commission, North Dakota Highway Patrol, North Dakota Department of Transportation, North Dakota Department of Health, North Dakota Department of Human Services, North Dakota National Guard, North Dakota Air National Guard, and the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services are monitoring the situation.  The State continues to gather damage information from county and local governments.

An April 18-20, 2006, spring blizzard produced up to 18 inches of snow and peak winds of 53 miles per hour (mph).  A low-pressure system, stalled along the North Dakota -- South Dakota line, produced a band of heavy snow from the Black Hills to Williston ND.

On April 20, as temperatures increased, the Little Missouri River at Marmarth rose almost six feet, from 3.9 feet to 9.5 feet; flood stage is 18 feet.  Hydrologists at the NWS River Forecast Center do not expect the river to rise above flood stage.  NWS will continue to monitor the runoff and its impact on the river hydrology.

Potential Federal Involvement:  Region VIII continues to coordinate closely with state officials.  A Region VIII representative has been on site throughout the flooding event.  The State has requested a Joint State/FEMA Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) to be conducted the week of May 01, 2006.  (FEMA Region VIII)

Utah Spring Flooding and Landslides

Forecast snow melt conditions continue to raise flood concerns throughout Utah.  There were no NWS flood watches, warnings or statements in effect as of 1:00 pm EDT yesterday.

A moderate to high landslide potential continues to exist in various areas of the State.

The Utah Department of Public Safety (DPS), Division of Homeland Security (DHS), Office of Emergency Services (OES) Operations staff and Liaison Officers continue to monitor the situation.  DHS/OES continues to work with local emergency managers in preparation for an increase in landslide movement.  County and city public works work directly with the USGS in monitoring moderate to high landslides in their County.

On April 21, the Director of the Division of Homeland Security and local officials from Weber and Box Elder Counties conducted a helicopter tour of areas of concern along the Weber and Bear Rivers, especially areas impacted by the release flows from Cutler Reservoir.

Potential Federal Involvement:  FEMA Region VIII is monitoring the situation and coordinating with UT OES as necessary.  There has been no request for federal assistance at this time. (Region VIII)

California Flooding & Levees

Forecast weather is not expected to exacerbate conditions for California's inland waterways. The National Weather Service reports mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of showers through Sunday with drier weather expected on Monday. River levels will remain high due to reservoir relief along the system. Daytime temperatures are not expected to cause unusually high snow melt and subsequent runoff.

Monitor stage is still expected all along the San Joaquin River from Newman to Vernalis. High flows continue to elevate concerns in the Chowchilla Bypass and upstream as well as around the town of Firebaugh.  The entire lower San Joaquin River and southern Delta channels continue to warrant close scrutiny.
 
State/Local Response:  Sixteen counties are currently included in the California Governor's State Proclamation of Emergency.  Madera County has requested inclusion in the governor's proclamation. The State Operations Center is on duty officer status. Initial damage estimates reported by affected counties total $55 million to date. 

Potential Federal Involvement: FEMA Region IX RRCC deactivated at 4:30 pm PDT on Friday April 21. The State of California has requested a joint Preliminary Damage Assessment for the counties involved, which will begin on Monday April 24. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Sacramento District Office remains activated to provide technical assistance to the California Department of Water Resources.  (FEMA Region IX)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its territories.  There have been at least 25 significant aftershocks (measuring 4.4 to 6.1 magnitude) in the Koryakia, Russia region since the 7.7 major earthquake occurred on Thursday, April 20, 2006 at 07:25 pm (EDT). No Tsunami was generated.(Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs will begin on Monday April 24 in the California counties affected by heavy rain storms and flooding during the past several days.

Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will begin in South Dakota on Tuesday April 25.

PDAs are scheduled to begin on Monday, May 1 in the North Dakota counties affected by recent flooding.   (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 24-Apr-2006 08:20:05 EDT