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National Situation Update: Thursday, April 20, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Outlook

West:  Most of the West will be dry today under high pressure. There will be a few light showers over western Washington and Oregon from a frontal system moving ashore.

Midwest:  The upper-air low which produced blizzard conditions over parts of Montana and the Dakotas yesterday will produce rain showers in the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Isolated showers are forecast for Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. Kentucky will see widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

South:  A slow-moving front will produce rain and thunderstorms from southern Oklahoma and northern Texas eastward to the Carolinas. Isolated tornadoes are forecast for central Texas producing large hail and gusty winds. Tonight locally heavy downpours (2 or 3 inches) will fall from northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas bringing some relief to the long term drought.

Northeast:  A nice spring day is in forecast for the Northeast with temperatures above average for mid-April. (National Weather Service, media sources)
 

California Flooding and Levees

Mostly sunny with areas of low clouds.  River levels will remain high due to reservoir relief along the systems.  Another weather system will bring a chance of rain and mountain snow to the north region beginning tonight.  Although daytime temperatures are heating up, they are not expected to cause unusually high snow melt or runoff. 

A flash flood watch is posted through Saturday afternoon for west central San Joaquin Valley along the Chowchilla Bypass.  A Flood Warning continues for the Yolo bypass at Lisbon.    Overflow will continue at Moulton, Colusa and Tisdale weirs for the next several days.  A Flood Watch also continues for the Chowchilla Bypass and a contingency plan has been developed should levee failure occur.  The communities included in this plan are Firebaugh, East Side Acres, and Dos Palos in Fresno and Madera counties.

Levee boils and seepage continue to plague the Chowchilla Bypass.   Department of Water Resources (DWR) and the Incident Command Team (ICT) continue aggressive preventive measures to prevent levee failure.  High tides are expected in the Delta.

Due to the recent wet conditions in the area, La Conchita continues to be unstable and will be monitored closely at the local level.  Approximately 70 homes in Marin, Alameda, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Santa Cruz counties are either destroyed, damaged, or yellow tagged restricting occupancy from hillside movement. 

State/Local Response:  Sixteen counties are now included in the California Governor's State Proclamation of Emergency.  The State Operations Center (SOC) remains activated through Friday and Regional EOCs (REOC) remain activated at the Duty Officer level.  The CA Department of Water Resources (DWR) Flood Ops Center remains activated 24 hours a day with reduced staff.  The San Joaquin County EOC remains activated 24 hours/day and all other affected counties have reduced to, or are maintaining, duty officer monitoring.

Potential Federal Involvement:  FEMA Region IX RROC remains at Level III (watch level) during daytime hours. USACE San Francisco Division duty officer continues to monitor.  The USACE Sacramento District Office remains activated and providing technical assistance to DWR. (FEMA Region IX)

NOAA Launches First Set Of Atlantic Basin Tsunami Buoy Stations

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finished installation of five Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) buoy stations off the East and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean as part of the expansion of the U.S. tsunami warning system. The latest buoy station, off New Orleans, joins stations off Charleston, S.C.; Miami, and two off San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Completing a three-week deployment mission aboard the University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System ship SEWARD JOHNSON, the fifth station was deployed Saturday (April 15).

"These buoys are a first line of defense in providing citizens of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions with a comprehensive tsunami warning system." said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The DART stations are an advanced technology that will help to protect densely populated, highly attractive tourist destinations in these regions as well as protect their significant economic resources."

The DART system was designed and built by NOAA to provide real-time tsunami detection as the waves travel across the open ocean. The newly installed stations are a more robust DART II, equipped with advanced two-way satellite communications that allow forecasters to receive and retrieve critical data. NOAA expects the network to total 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008 (32 in the Pacific and seven in the Atlantic Basin).

NOAA received $17.2 million in supplemental funding in Fiscal Year 2005 and $9.67 million in Fiscal Year 2006 to expand the U.S. tsunami warning system. Since receiving this funding, NOAA's tsunami warning centers have expanded their services to provide tsunami watches and warnings to the entire U.S. Atlantic Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Canada. These regions can now receive tsunami warnings and watches through NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards and the Emergency Alert System, just as they would be notified of tornadoes, flooding or other hazards.

"The DART network is one component in a comprehensive system to detect and warn the public of a tsunami threat," said Lautenbacher. "We have made important strides in enhancing our communication networks so East Coast residents and visitors can receive tsunami watches and warnings, upgrading our network of tide stations, working to staff our tsunami warning centers around the clock, producing forecast models for at-risk communities, transferring technology from research to operations and providing public education."

In the President's Fiscal Year 2007 budget, the administration is requesting approximately $21 million to complete its commitment to strengthen the nation's tsunami warning program. (NOAA  Magazine)

Utah Spring Flooding and Landslides

Forecast snow melt conditions continue to raise flood concerns throughout Utah.  However, the National Weather Service short term forecast for northern Utah is conducive to reducing mid level snow-pack slowly and reduce the potential for flooding.

There were no NWS Flood Watches or Warnings in the State as of 3:00 p.m. EDT yesterday.
Moderate to high landslide potential continues to exist in areas of the State.

State and local actions:  State and local agencies are working together and with the NWS and the US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring stream gauges and landslide activity.  On April 21, State and local officials will conduct a helicopter tour of areas of potential flooding concern along the Weber and Bear Rivers.

Potential Federal involvement:  FEMA Region VIII is monitoring the situation and coordinating with the Utah Office of Emergency Services as necessary.  There has been no request for Federal assistance at this time.  (USGS, NWS, Region VIII)

Augustine Volcano

Current Level of Concern Color Code: ORANGE

Alaska's Augustine Volcano (171 miles southwest of Anchorage) has decreased to a low level of activity over the past week. Seismic activity has diminished but is still slightly above background and the frequency of rock falls and avalanche events has decreased over the past week. However, low-level eruptive activity, consisting of slow effusion of lava at the summit, accompanied by small rock fall and avalanche events on the flanks of the volcano is still occurring. (Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO))

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5).

Wildland fire activity was heavy throughout the nation with 317 new fires reported. Six new large fires were reported: one each in Georgia and Missouri and two each in North Carolina and Tennessee. Nine large fires were contained: one each in Arkansas, Georgia, and New Mexico and two each in Missouri, North Carolina, and Tennessee.(National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)