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National Situation Update: Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Outlook

West: Most of the West will be sunny and dry under high pressure. The frontal system over the Dakotas will produce rain and snow over eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. A Pacific front moving into northwest Washington will produce a few showers.

Midwest: A stalled low pressure center and associated frontal system over the Dakotas will produce wet snow especially over South Dakota's Black Hills. Scattered showers along the slow-moving and weakening front will extend southward from Minnesota and Wisconsin into parts of Illinois and Indiana. Kentucky will see a scattering of showers and thunderstorms.

South: Ahead of the frontal system showers and thunderstorms will hit central and eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and northern Mississippi. Florida may see isolated thunderstorms.
A few of the thunderstorms in Tennessee, Georgia, northern Alabama, and northern Mississippi could become severe. This evening isolated severe storms could develop along the tail end of the cold front in northern Louisiana and eastern and southern Texas.

Northeast: Except for a few showers in eastern Maine and Cape Cod from a low off the Atlantic coast, sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures will dominate the Northeast. Gusty winds will continue in New England and New Jersey. (National Weather Service, media sources)

California Flooding and Levees

Drier weather is expected through Thursday.  River levels will remain high due to reservoir relief along the systems.  Another weather system will bring a chance of rain and mountain snow to the north region beginning Thursday night.  Daytime temperatures though are heating, up are not expected to cause unusually high snow melt and subsequent runoff. 

A flash flood watch is posted through Saturday afternoon for west central San Joaquin Valley along the Chowchilla Bypass. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon resulting mostly from reservoir releases for the northern San Joaquin Valley.  A Flood Warning continues for the Sacramento River at Tehama Bridge. A Flood Watch also continues for the Chowchilla Bypass and a contingency plan has been developed should levee failure occur.

Levee boils and seepage continue to plague the Chowchilla Bypass.   Department of Water Resources (DWR) and the Incident Command Team (ICT) continue aggressive preventive measures to prevent levee failure. They have constructed a ½ mile land berm along the left bank in an area where boils, seepage and sink holes have developed.  High flows continue to elevate concerns in the Chowchilla Bypass and upstream as well as around the town of Firebaugh.  The entire lower San Joaquin River and southern Delta channels continue to warrant close scrutiny. High Tides are expected in the Delta. 

The State Geologist noted they are concerned about the 500-foot cliff face above La Conchita because it is "weeping," leaking at various locations from top to bottom.  Due to the recent and future rain conditions in the area, La Conchita continues to be unstable and needs to be monitored closely.

State/local response:  Sixteen counties are currently included in the California Governor's State Proclamation of Emergency.  The State Operations Center (SOC) remains activated and Regional EOCs (REOC) remain activated at the Duty Officer level.  The CA Department of Water Resources (DWR) Flood Ops Center remains activated 24 hours a day with reduced staff.  The San Joaquin County EOC remains activated 24 hours/day and all other affected counties have reduced to, or are maintaining, duty officer monitoring.

Potential Federal Involvement: FEMA Region IX RROC remains at Level III (watch level) during daytime hours. USACE San Francisco Division duty officer continues to monitor.  The USACE Sacramento District Office remains activated and providing technical assistance to DWR. (FEMA Region IX)

Utah Spring Flooding and Landslides

Forecast snow melt conditions raise flood concerns throughout Utah and numerous rivers need to be monitored for increased flows. Peak flows typically occur from April 24 through June 15.

A strong Pacific storm system dumped snow in northern and central UT on April 17.  Snow depths range from four to 21 inches in the northern Wasatch Mountains; five to ten inches in the Uinta Mountains; five to 17 inches in Wasatch Plateau and Pahvant Range; and three to 11 inches in the valley areas.

An upper level ridge will bring a drying and warming trend to the region in the early part of the weekend but another Pacific storm system is expected to bring the chance of rain and snow to northern Utah by Sunday April 23.

There were no NWS flood watches, warnings or statements in effect as of 3:00 pm EDT yesterday.
A moderate to high landslide potential exists in various areas of the State. (USGS, NWS, Region VIII)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 effective April 18, 2006 to FEMA-1636-DR- Arkansas adds Cross, Greene, and Randolph Counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance.)

Amendment #4 effective April 18, 2006 FEMA-1634-DR- Tennessee adds Benton, Cannon, Cheatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Dickson, Sumner, and Warren Counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance.) (FEMA HQ)