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National Situation Update: Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Outlook

West: High pressure centered over Idaho will produce fair weather along the West Coast and much of Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico. The storm system moving out into the plains will produce a wintry mix of rain and snow in far eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming, especially the Big Horn Mountains.

Midwest: The frontal system extending from the Canadian/North Dakota boarder south to Texas will produce wet snow over western Dakotas and showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska. The showers and thunderstorms may eventually push into adjacent areas of the Midwest, then grow severe this evening as they move through southern Iowa, Missouri and western Illinois. Mostly sunny, dry weather is forecast for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be above average in most of the Midwest, but below on the Plains. Highs should range from the 30s or 40s in the western Dakotas to the 80s in southeast Kansas and southern Missouri.

South: Monday saw unprecedented heat across parts of the South. Record high temperatures were set from the Rockies to the Southeast.  Cities that set or tied records (Degrees F) Were Dallas (101), Austin (100), Oklahoma City (98), Little Rock (92), Houston (92), Memphis (91), Shreveport (91) Wilmington, N.C. (89) and Asheville NC (85). Today expect more record high temperatures under mostly sunny skies across the Southern Plains. In addition to the heat gusty winds and low humidity will lead to critical wildfire conditions in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
 
Northeast: High pressure will produce generally dry conditions over much of the northeast with only isolated precipitation over eastern New England. Winds will be gusting over 30 mph particularly across coastal locations. (National Weather Service, media sources)

The Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake

At almost precisely 5:12 a.m. on April 18, 1906, a foreshock occurred with sufficient force to be felt widely throughout the San Francisco Bay area. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake broke loose some 20 to 25 seconds later, with an epicenter near San Francisco. Violent shocks punctuated the strong shaking which lasted some 45 to 60 seconds.

The earthquake was felt from southern Oregon to south of Los Angeles and inland as far as central Nevada, rupturing the northernmost 296 miles of the San Andreas fault from northwest of San Juan Bautista to Cape Mendocino.

Areas situated in sediment-filled valleys sustained stronger shaking than nearby bedrock sites, and the strongest shaking occurred in areas where ground reclaimed from San Francisco Bay failed in the earthquake. Modern seismic-zonation practice accounts for the differences in seismic hazard posed by varying geologic conditions.

Casualties and Damage:

• Early estimates were of 700-800 dead. More recent research estimates that over 3000 deaths were caused directly or indirectly by the catastrophe. The population of San Francisco at the time was about 400,000.
  
• Buildings Destroyed - 28,188.  The 3-day conflagration following the earthquake caused substantially more damage than did the earthquake. The area of the burned district covered 4.7 square mile. The damaged or destroyed homes rendered some 225,000 people homeless.
  
• Estimated property damage $400,000,000 in 1906 dollars from earthquake and fire, $80,000,000 from the earthquake alone.

The 1906 Earthquake Centennial Alliance (http://1906centennial.org/ ) has been formed to help coordinate and promote efforts and activities among organizations throughout Northern California planning to commemorate the earthquake.
The 100th anniversary provides a unique opportunity to:

• Increase public awareness of seismic hazard and promote earthquake preparedness and mitigation.
  
• Explore the ways in which this major natural disaster affected the personal lives, culture, economy and development of Northern California.

On the basis of research conducted since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Staff of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists conclude that there is a 62% probability of at least one magnitude 6.7 or greater quake, capable of causing widespread damage, striking the San Francisco Bay region before 2032. Major quakes may occur in any part of this rapidly growing region. This emphasizes the urgency for all communities in the Bay region to continue preparing for earthquakes. A USGS Earthquake Preparedness Handbook is available for download from http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/ (excerpts from USGS Earthquake Hazards Program - Northern California http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/info/1906/index.html )

California Flooding and Levees

Drier weather is expected Today through Thursday.  River levels will remain high.  Another weather system will bring a chance of rain and mountain snow to the north region beginning Thursday night.  Daytime temperatures are not expected to cause unusually high snow melt and subsequent runoff. 

A Flood Watch  for the lower San Joaquin River at Vernalis remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon.  A Flood Warning continues for the Sacramento River at Tehama Bridge.

In Stanislaus County approximately 50 people are being sheltered. Long term housing is being located with the assistance of the American Red Cross.

State/Local Response: The State Operations Center (SOC) remains activated and Regional EOCs (REOC) remain activated at the Duty Officer level.  The CA Department of Water Resources (DWR) Flood Ops Center remains activated 24 hours a day with reduced staff.  The San Joaquin County EOC remains activated 24 hours/day and all other affected counties have reduced to, or are maintaining, duty officer monitoring.
Potential Federal Involvement:  A request has been received from the State of California for a joint Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) for the counties affected by the most recent storm and levee conditions.  FEMA Region IX RRCC remains at Level III (watch level) during daytime hours. USACE San Francisco Division duty officer continues to monitor.  The USACE Sacramento District Office remains activated and providing technical assistance to DWR. (FEMA Region IX)

Utah Spring Flooding and Landslides

Forecast snow melt conditions raise flood concerns throughout Utah.  Peak flow forecast indicates the following rivers need to be monitored for increased flows: Logan River, Blacksmith Fork, in Cache County, Weber River near Oakley, in Summit County, Ogden River and Weber River in Weber County, and Parleys Creek and City Creek, in Salt Lake County.  Normal time of peak flows occur beginning approximately April 24, 2006 through June 15, 2006.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a heavy snow warning for the entire Wasatch Range and Wasatch Mountain valleys as well as the western Uinta Mountains until 11:00 am EDT, today.  Total accumulations of eight to 15 inches are expected for the Wasatch Range with up to two feet in the Cottonwoods area to Farmington Peak.  Ten to 14 inches are expected for the western Uinta Mountains.  The mountain valleys will receive four to eight of snow with locally one foot near and south of I-80.

The Utah Geological Survey (UGS) - Landslide Outlook and Activity Summary - 04/12/06 indicates that moderate to high landslide potential exists in various parts of the state. Active landsliding (13 documented landslides) is occurring in Morgan, Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah Counties, but there are no structures threatened at this time.

Spring climate will dictate runoff. Soil moisture in the north is near saturation.  A warm wet spring will allow for higher saturation levels and increase the potential for higher runoff in those areas of concerns.  A cool and drier spring will reduce water volumes and lessen the flood potential.  A significant rain event during peak flows will also contribute to flood potential

State Activities:  The Utah Department of Public Safety (DPS), Division of Homeland Security (DHS), Office of Emergency Services OES) Operations staff and Liaison Officers continue to monitor the situation.
Potential Federal Involvement:  FEMA Region VIII is monitoring the situation and coordinating with UT OES as necessary.  There has been no request for federal assistance at this time. (Region VIII)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity during the last 24 hours in the Unites States or its territories.

Internationally, a Strong earthquake occurred Monday, April 17, 2006 at 07:50 pm (EDT)  The magnitude 6.0 event was located in the Santa Cruz Islands 1320 miles Northeast of Brisbane, Queensland Australia at a depth of 44 miles. No Tsunami was generated. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5).

Initial attack activity was light across the United States with 173 new fires reported. Three new large fires started yesterday, one each in Missouri, New Mexico and Virginia. Firefighters contained four large fires, two in Kentucky, and one each in North Carolina and Texas. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment 4 to FEMA-1624-DR for Texas: Added Potter County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance Category B (emergency protective measures), subject to subsequent designation by FEMA for reimbursement.)

Amendment 3 to FEMA-1634-DR-Tennessee: Added Benton, Cannon, Carroll, Cheatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Dickson, Maury, Sumner, Warren, and Weakley Counties for Individual Assistance. Fayette County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance.) Haywood County for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance.

Amendment 1 to FEMA-1635-DR-Missouri: Butler, Dunklin, St. Francois, and Stoddard Counties for Individual Assistance. Andrew and Pettis Counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for debris removal and emergency protective measures [Categories A and B] under the Public Assistance program.). Pemiscot County for Public Assistance [Categories C-G] (already designated for debris removal and emergency protective measures [Categories A and B] under the Public Assistance program.). (FEMA HQ)