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National Situation Update: Monday, April 17, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Outlook

South:  A cold front pushing southward through the Carolinas Monday will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms there and in northeastern Tennessee. Some of the Carolina storms could grow severe. Elsewhere in the South, generally sunny and warm to hot weather will prevail with temperatures well above average for this time of year.  A stiff breeze will prevail in many areas. The fire danger will be especially high in the Southeast. 

West:  Showers will continue in much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, northern Rockies and eastern Montana Monday, while California (except for the northeastern portion) gets a chance to dry out. The heaviest precipitation, in the form of snow, will be reserved for the mountains of southwest Montana, Wyoming and Utah where final snow totals could be as high as 2 feet.

Northeast:  Most of the Northeast will be dry Monday, although there will be a couple of notable exceptions. Showers and thunderstorms will push through West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware during the day. There could be some localized one-inch downpours in Virginia.  Mixed rain and snow showers are predicted for parts of northern Maine, and isolated light showers are predicted for other parts of northern New England and eastern Massachusetts.

Midwest:  Except for a few lingering showers and thundershowers over the Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky Monday, the Midwest and Plains should be pretty much dry to start the workweek. A few big thunderstorms, however, could pop up by evening on the High Plains of western South Dakota and western Nebraska. Gusty winds will whip over many areas during the day. (National Weather Service, media sources)

California Flooding and Levees

A cold Pacific frontal system will continue to affect northern California into Monday morning.  Drier weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday.  River levels will remain high.  Another weather system will bring a chance of rain and mountain snow to the region beginning Thursday night.

The National Weather Service (NWS) reports a Flood Warning is cancelled for the lower San Joaquin River at Vernalis.  Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon.  A Flood Warning continues for the Sacramento River at Tehama Bridge.  Runoff from rainfall the past 24 hours has produced a renewed rise on the upper Sacramento River.  Overflow will continue at Moulton, Colusa and Tisdale weirs for the next several days.

The San Joaquin River at Vernalis has dropped below flood stage and should continue dropping over the next several days.  Monitor stage is still expected all along the San Joaquin River from Newman to Mossdale.  High flows continue to elevate concerns in the Chowchilla Bypass and upstream as well as around the town of Firebaugh.  The entire lower San Joaquin River and southern Delta channels continues to warrant close scrutiny. High Tides and moderately gusty winds are expected in the Delta this weekend.

The State Geologist noted they are concerned about the 500-foot cliff face above La Conchita because it shows signs of leaking at various locations from top to bottom.  Due to the recent and future rain conditions in the area, La Conchita continues to be unstable and should be monitored closely.

Stanislaus County reported that six businesses and 15-20 homes were flooded with up to 20-inches of water.  Tulare, Oakland, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Santa Cruz Counties also reported affected housing units.  Shelters were opened but minimal activity was reported.  Long term housing is being located with the assistance of the American Red Cross.

California Department of Water Resources reports that DWR has completed their current objectives and will continue to monitor the situation with levees and related potential of flooding.

Sixteen counties are now included in the California Governor's State Proclamation of Emergency.  The State Operations Center (SOC) remains activated and Regional EOCs (REOC) remain activated at Duty Officer level.  The CA Department of Water Resources (DWR) Flood Ops Center remains activated 24 hours a day with reduced staff.  The San Joaquin County EOC remains activated 24 hours a day, and all other affected counties have reduced to, or are maintaining, duty officer monitoring.

No request for Federal Stafford Act assistance is requested at this time.  FEMA Region IX RRCC remains at Level III (watch level) during daytime hours. USACE San Francisco Division duty officer continues to monitor.  The USACE Sacramento District Office remains activated and providing technical assistance to DWR. (FEMA Region IX)

Climate-Monitoring Satellites in Orbit

Six new weather satellites successfully reached orbit.  Signals from all six have been received, and are now ready to begin their five-year mission to track hurricanes, monitor climate change and study space weather.

The satellites will take about 2,500 daily measurements by using global positioning receivers to track radio signals passing through the atmosphere, scientists said.

The information gathered will be used to enhance research and improve weather forecasting. Scientists hope the data will help better track storms and monitor long-term climate change.

The $100-million mission was funded by Taiwan and several U.S. agencies including the National Science Foundation.

The mission is known as COSMIC in the United States and FORMOSAT-3 in Taiwan. COSMIC stands for Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. (Media sources)

National Guard helps fight Virginia Wildfire

Members of the Virginia National Guard joined firefighters Sunday to battle the Bull Mountain Fire, a Patrick County forest fire that had spread to more than 750 acres and forced the evacuation of 40 homes, state forestry officials said.

Five or sx structures, including two homes, have been destroyed.  Local emergency management officials asked residents of another 35 homes to evacuate Bull Mountain. No one has been injured by the blaze.

About 200 firefighters, including the Guard members, continued to battle the blaze that started Friday when lightning struck the wooded mountain.

The fire is only 10 percent to 15 percent contained and it could continue for days. A spokesman for the forestry agency said it will probably burn between 1,200 and 1,500 acres before it is contained

A Fire Management Assistance Grant was requested and approved for the Bull Mountain Fire on April 15, 2006. (Media sources)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its Territories. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity for Sunday was moderate nationally with 288 new fires reported. Twelve new large fires were reported, ten in the Southern Area, and one each in the Southwest and Rocky Mountain Areas. Eleven large fires were contained, six in the Southern Area, three in the Eastern Area, and one each in the Southwest and Rocky Mountain Areas.

No critical fire weather areas have been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Monday. (National Interagency Fire Center, NWS, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)