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National Situation Update: Saturday, April 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Another Rainy Weekend in California

West: Moderate rain on Saturday and locally heavy 1-to-4-inch rains on Sunday will create more deadly mudslides and raging river flooding in northern California while the Sierra pick up another several feet of snow with snow levels dropping down to the valley floors. A storm will hit the Pacific Northwest Saturday. Snow levels will drop to 2000 feet in the Cascades by Easter as 1 to 2 feet of additional snow make the slopes dangerously vulnerable to avalanches. The lower elevations of western Washington and western Oregon could be doused with as much as 1 to 4 inches of rain.  On Sunday locally heavy rain and higher mountain snow will fall just north of the front from eastern Montana to northern and central Nevada. The West Coast will quiet down Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Midwest: A vigorous upper-level low front from out of the Southwest will trigger severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, hail and damaging winds. The areas for severe weather Saturday include southeast South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. The outbreak will continue across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Sunday. Rainfall could exceed 2 or 3 inches in spots as thunderstorms move over the same areas, sparking flash flooding. Western South Dakota could have a blizzard Tuesday into Wednesday. Heavy rain could create more flooding problems in the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. 

Northeast: Showers will linger in northern New England while more thunderstorms advance across West Virginia and Virginia from out of the Ohio Valley during the morning hours or just pop up across the southern Mid-Atlantic later in the day. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe especially during the afternoon and evening hours. The same scenario will occur Sunday. With successive bouts of rain, rainfall in the mountains of West Virginia could total several inches by late Monday.

South: The South will be basically summery warm and dry through Monday with a scattering of record highs possible each day. (National Weather Service, media sources)

California Flooding and Levees

The latest forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) indicates periods of light rain through the weekend with a three-to-four day drying period beginning Monday in the Northern and Central Coastal Regions.  Further south rain expected but less chance of damaging amounts.  A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms forming continues.  

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) reports that the high stage in the San Joaquin River and Delta channels is forecast to continue.  The entire lower San Joaquin River continues to warrant close scrutiny.  High flows continue to elevate concerns in the Chowchilla Bypass and up stream as well as around the town of Firebaugh.  Flood Stage is occurring at Vernails but should slowly drop over the weekend.  High tides and moderately gusty winds are expected in the Delta this weekend.

DWR also states that river levels and levees are slowly receding at approximately 6" per 24 hour period.   Four out of eight flood fight incident command teams (ICT) remain active as conditions stabilize.

The State Geologist states that hillsides that have been sliding remain saturated and will continue to experience slide activity.

The California Governor's office has issued a State Proclamation of Emergency for nine additional counties for damage and activities related to the March/April storms.  There are now a total of 16 counties included in the proclamations. 

The State Operations Center (SOC) will remain activated with minimal staff over the weekend to monitor the situation.  The California OES Regional Operations Centers (REOCs) will remain activated at Duty Officer level. The DWR Flood Ops Center remains activated 24 hours a day with a reduced staff.   The San Joaquin County EOC will remain activated.

No Federal Stafford Act assistance is requested at this time.  FEMA Region IX RRCC remains at Level III (watch level) and during daytime hours until further notice. USACE San Francisco Division duty officer continues to monitor event status.  The USACE Sacramento District Office remains activated and providing technical assistance to DWR. (FEMA Region IX)

Utah Spring Flooding and Landslides Assessment

Forecast snow melt conditions raise flood concerns throughout Utah.  Currently, there are no areas of imminent concern for flooding. 

Peak flow forecast indicates the following rivers need to be monitored for increased flows: Logan River, Blacksmith Fork, in Cache County, Weber River near Oakley, in Summit County, Ogden River and Weber River in Weber County, and Parleys Creek and City Creek, in Salt Lake County.  Normal time of peak flows occur beginning approximately April 24, 2006 through June 15, 2006

The Utah Geological Survey (UGS) Landslide Outlook and Activity Summary dated April 12, 2006, reports:

• A moderate to high landslide potential exists:
  • Along the east bench of Utah Valley and in Provo and Spanish Fork Canyons.
  • In Cache County; western Morgan County; Weber County including the Ogden area; northeastern Salt Lake County including Parleys and Emigration Canyons; eastern Summit County; and Davis County.
• A moderate landslide potential exists in the remainder of the Wasatch Front urban corridor (Provo-Brigham City). 
• Active landsliding (13 documented landslides) is occurring in Morgan, Davis, Salt Lake, and Utah Counties. There are no structures threatened at this time.  Most UGS monitored landslides remain covered by snow.

The NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) hydrologic outlook is for Utah waterways to increase their volumes and rise due to warm temperatures on April 14 to 16, 2006.  A cold front will move through the area on April 17, 2006, and reduce the snowmelt input to the rivers and streams, resulting in decreased flows early in the week.  However, rivers fed by major upstream reservoirs will maintain high flows as reservoir operators make room for spring snowmelt runoff.  Flooding is not anticipated at this time.

Spring weather will dictate runoff. Soil moisture in the north is near saturation.  A cool wet spring will allow for higher saturation levels and increase the potential for higher runoff in those areas of concerns.  A warmer and drier spring will reduce water volumes and lessen the flood potential.  A significant rain event during peak flows will also contribute to flood potential

The Utah Department of Public Safety (DPS), Division of Homeland Security (DHS), Office of Emergency Services OES) Operations staff and Liaison Officers continue to monitor the situation.  DHS/OES continues to work with local emergency managers in preparation for an increase in landslide movement.  County and city public works work directly with the UGS in monitoring moderate to high landslides in their County.

FEMA Region VIII is monitoring the situation and coordinating with UT OES as necessary.  There has been no request for federal assistance at this time. (FEMA Region VII)

• Iowa Severe Storms and Tornadoes Update

Severe storms and tornadoes caused damages in several eastern and southeastern Iowa counties on Thursday evening, April 13, 2006.

Extensive damage occurred in downtown Iowa City. Nine people reported to the University of Iowa Hospital with storm associated injuries, and twelve individuals were taken to Mercy Hospital in Iowa City. Downtown Iowa City has shut off electricity until all gas leaks are controlled. Power will be restored according to priority, with the first restoration to be the fire station. Local officials report approximately 20 homes affected near the City of Anamosa.  There is one confirmed fatality, when a mobile home was destroyed in the City of Muscatine.

The Iowa Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (HLSEM) has activated the Emergency Operations Center and is coordinating and responding to local requests for assistance. The Governor declared an emergency declaration for Johnson, Jones and Muscatine Counties.

FEMA Region VII is in contact with HLSEM for incident updates and briefings and is deploying a State Liaison Officer to the State EOC. A Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) request has been received from the State and preparations are made to begin Individual and Public Joint PDAs Saturday, April 15, 2006. (FEMA Region VII)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its Territories. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

In Iowa, PDAs for Individual and Public Assistance will begin in Johnson, Jones, and Muscatine Counties beginning April 15, 2006. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level remains at Level 2. Initial attack activity was heavy nationally with 373 new fires reported. Eight new large fires were reported, five in the Southern Area and three in the Eastern Area. Four large fires were contained, two in the Eastern area and one each in the Southern and Rocky Mountain Areas. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma.

The Ojo Feliz Fire in New Mexico continued to grow and has burned an estimated 17,000 acres of grassland and ponderosa pine in Mora County. The Fire was threatening the small community of Los Hueros, some residents of the Coyote area and a number of surrounding ranches. The human-caused fire, burning on private land, has charred one trailer home and four outbuildings. Coyote Creek and Morphy Lake state parks were closed because of the Fire. Four hundred forty five firefighters are battling the blaze, which began Wednesday.

There is an Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for southwestern Kansas, southeastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico, western Oklahoma and northwest and west Texas. There is a Critical Fire Area for eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, southern Nebraska, southern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma, and western and north central Texas.

Very strong winds will create extreme fire weather conditions on Saturday as sustained values are expected to range from 25-40 mph with higher gusts likely. High temperatures will be in the 90s except over the higher terrain of eastern new Mexico and western Texas. West of the dryline relative humidity values will drop into the 5-15 percent range with temperature/dewpoint spreads of 50-60 degrees likely.   (National Interagency Fire Center, NWS, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)