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National Situation Update: Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West

A frontal system moving in off the Pacific will bring additional precipitation to Oregon and California. The San Joaquin river basin is expected to miss the brunt of the storm. Only minor rises are expected on small streams and inflows into reservoirs. Rain and snow showers will spread eastward across northern Nevada into Idaho and western Montana and northward through Washington. Snow levels will range from around 4000 feet in the Washington Cascades to about 7000 feet in the Sierras near Lake Tahoe. From one to two inches of rainfall is forecast for the northern Sacramento Valley by the end of the day. Sunny skies are forecast for southern California, Arizona and New Mexico.

Midwest

A cold front extending from a low over the Great Lakes to Texas will produce precipitation from the Ohio Valley northward through the Great Lakes. There may be a few isolated thunderstorms over parts of Ohio and Indiana. Highs are expected to range from the 50s near the Canadian border to the 80s in Kansas and southern Missouri.

South

High pressure will produce mostly clear skies over much of the South. Along the leading edge of the cold front, western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Arkansas will see showers and thunderstorms.

Northeast

Showers associated with the front moving in from the Midwest will be felt in western sections of New York and Pennsylvania late in the day.(NWS, Media sources)
 

California Flooding and Levee Control Update

Three floodwalls are being constructed for Firebaugh, CA as flows into the San Joaquin River Channel may exceed design capacity, threatening the city.  The situation is being monitored closely by numerous agencies. Flows into the Chowchilla Bypass continue to exceed design capacity.  The San Joaquin River at Vernalis is no longer at Danger Stage; however it should remain at or near Flood Stage.  Numerous California Department of Forestry (CDF) and Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) crews remain on scene continuing the flood control effort or are in staging.

Flood Watches are in effect as follows:

• Through Friday afternoon April 14 for the lower San Joaquin River.
• Through this morning for a portion of Northern California including Shasta County to the Oregon border and the Northern Sacramento Valley.
• Through this morning for portions of Lake County.<
• Through this morning for portions of the area from the North Bay Area to the Santa Cruz mountains.

State/local response:  On Monday April 10, the Governor of California declared a State of Emergency for the Counties of Amador, Calaveras, Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin, San Mateo, and Stanislaus. State activations include the State Operations Center, OES Inland Regional Operations Center, DWR Flood Operations Center, as well as county EOCs.  Hand crews from the California Dept of Forestry and California Conservation Corps are conducting floodfighting operations along with local crews.

Potential Federal Involvement:  There is no request for Federal Stafford Act assistance at this time.  The joint State/Federal Team (San Joaquin Advance Planning Project - SJAPP) is working with local agencies to identify critical vulnerabilities and to develop response contingencies.  The FEMA Region IX RRCC is at Level III (watch level) during daytime hours.  The USACE Southwest Division duty officer is monitoring, and the USACE Sacramento District office is activated and providing technical assistance to DWR. (FEMA Region VIII, ND Department of Emergency Services (DES), National Weather Service (NWS), media reports)

Record Breaking Number of Tornadoes

Usually, the United States sees about 70 tornadoes between January and March. So far this year, we've had preliminary reports of 472, including 228 reports of tornadoes in March.

Last year, the U.S. had 54 reported twisters in March, and 43 the year before. What's more, June is always the most active month, with 281 tornadoes last year alone.

When asked about the upsurge, Dan McCarthy, a warning coordination meteorologist for the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, said, "I think what's happened is we had a very abnormally warm and very dry winter across the south central and southwestern U.S.  We faced much of the winter with fires, wildfires across this area. And when spring systems finally started to move in from California into these areas, we were able to pull up Gulf (of Mexico) moisture and that brings on the violent storms." (Storm Prediction Center, Various Media)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The country is currently at National Preparedness Level 2 for wildland fires, on a scale from 1 to 5.   (One region of the country experiencing high fire danger, wildland fire activity occurring, and a potential for escapes to larger fires.)

Wildland fire activity was heavy throughout the nation yesterday with 389 new fires reported. There were eight large fires reported; six of them were contained as of yesterday (two in Texas, one in North Carolina, two in Florida, and one in Mississippi), and two fires were not yet contained (in Wyoming and Minnesota).

Fire Weather Watches: Northern and eastern New Mexico east of the central mountain chain and the Texas panhandle for strong winds and low relative humidity. In southeast Colorado for increasing winds and low relative humidity. (NIFC, NICC, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)