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National Situation Update: Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West

Weather will continue to be cool and wet along the West Coast. Significant rainfall is forecast across Northern California, with showers northward to Oregon and Washington. Rain with snow showers in the higher elevations is forecast for the northern and central Rockies.

Midwest

A frontal system extending southward from a low pressure area on the border of North Dakota and Manitoba will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across an area from Wisconsin to Kansas. Severe weather will be limited to a few strong thunderstorms in an area from eastern Kansas to central Iowa. The southerly flow of air will produce temperatures to the 80s in the Central Plains.

South

A ridge of high pressure will result in mostly clear skies over the South. It will be windy across parts of the southern Plains and Texas where the fire danger remains high. There is also a high fire danger across parts of the Florida Panhandle. High temperatures will range from the 70s from the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas to the 80s across most of Texas, the Gulf Coast and southern Florida. Temperatures will continue upward through the week across the region.

Northeast

High pressure moving off the East Coast will result in mostly clear skies over the Northeast with winds shifting more to the south. (NWS, Media sources)

California Flooding and Levee Control Update

The National Weather Service forecasts approximately 3 inches of precipitation over the next 7 - 10 days for the San Joaquin levee system area. The California Dept of Water Resources (DWR) continues the shifting of water storage to alleviate pressure on the lower (northern) San Joaquin River.  DWR cautions that the Sacramento and San Joaquin levee systems will be stressed for an additional 2 to 3 months from continued rain and snowmelt.

A levee break was reported approximately one mile northwest of Woodbridge, CA, but there are no structures currently threatened.

The entire lower San Joaquin River continues to warrant close scrutiny in the days to come. Flows into the Chowchilla Bypass continue to exceed design capacity. Flows into the San Joaquin River channel will likely exceed design capacity threatening the town of Firebaugh. Monitor stage is being exceeded in the Merced River at Stevenson and is expected all along the San Joaquin River from Newman to Mossdale. The Calaveras River is running very high - although within design capacity, record releases from New Hogan Dam are warranting close monitoring on the river through Stockton.

The joint State/Federal Team (San Joaquin Advance Planning Project - SJAPP) is working with State agencies to identify potential inundation areas and the critical facilities and special needs populations which might be affected along the San Joaquin watershed. Advance Planning Team members have identified priority concerns as rural communities in the following counties:  Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Merced and Fresno.
State/Local Response:  The California Governor's office is preparing a State Proclamation of Emergency identifying 4 to 5 counties affected; however, no request for a Stafford Act declaration is anticipated with this proclamation.

Potential Federal Involvement:   FEMA Region IX RRCC remains at Level III (watch level) during daytime hours. (Region IX, California Office of Emergency Services, California Department of Water Resources, National Weather Service, California State Warning Center, USACE, and media sources)

North Dakota Spring Flooding Update

Spring riverine flood conditions continue in parts of North Dakota, with local responses ongoing in Cavalier, Grand Forks, Pembina, Towner, and Walsh Counties.

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast isolated to scattered thunderstorms for Monday evening April 10 over eastern North Dakota, but the precipitation is not expected to have much impact on river crest levels.  However, according to the NWS, there are approximately two to ten inches of snow pack in the Pembina River gorge that may have an impact the levels of the Pembina River.

State agencies are monitoring the situation, and damage assessments are expected to begin today.
FEMA Region VIII remains in contact with the State, and a FEMA RVIII representative has been on site throughout the flooding event.  Other than assistance from the US Army Corps of Engineers, there has been no request for Federal assistance. (FEMA Region VIII, ND Department of Emergency Services (DES), National Weather Service (NWS), media reports)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

A Minor earthquake occurred at 11:29 (EDT) on April 10, 2006. The magnitude 3.3 event was located 9 miles southeast of Athens TN at a depth of 12.3 miles.

Earthquakes in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone: The Eastern Tennessee seismic zone extends across Tennessee and northwestern Georgia into northeastern Alabama. It is one of the most active earthquake areas in the Southeast. Although the zone is not known to have had a large earthquake, a few earthquakes in the zone have caused slight damage.

The largest known (magnitude 4.6) occurred on April 29, 2003, near Fort Payne, Alabama. Earthquakes too small to cause damage are felt about once a year. Earthquakes too small to be felt are abundant in the seismic zone, and seismographs have recorded hundreds of them in recent decades. (Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS), Earthquake Hazards Program, FEMA Region IX)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Wildland fire activity was heavy throughout the nation with 300 new fires reported. Seven new large fires were reported: two in Florida, one in Minnesota, one in Missouri, and three in Oklahoma. Seven large fires were contained: two in Minnesota, and one each in Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia.

A red flag warning is issued for prolonged durations of low humidities in the Florida panhandle. Another red flag warning is for low humidities and strong and gusty southwesterly winds for western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.
A fire weather watch is in effect for strong and gusty southwesterly winds in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. A fire weather watch is also in effect for strong winds and low humidities for much of the eastern states.(NIFC, NICC, media sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1634-DR-TN: Effective April 10, 2006 the major disaster for the State of Tennessee (FEMA-1634-DR), dated April 5, 2006, and related determinations. The incident period for this declared disaster is now April 2-8, 2006. (FEMA HQ)