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National Situation Update: Thursday, April 6, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

Midwest: Another significant severe weather outbreak is expected across the Great Plains today as a strong storm system moves out of the Rockies. From Nebraska and Iowa southward into Oklahoma and Arkansas, severe storms packing destructive winds, large hail, and tornadoes are expected to develop during the day. People across the nation's heartland will want to pay close attention to rapidly changing conditions and heed warnings for their county. Farther east, parts of the Mississippi Valley could see showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Late day showers may be seen as far east as Ohio. Only northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan look like they will escape with a dry day.

West: Across the West, heavy snow and strong winds will pummel the Rockies and Intermountain West. Winter storm watches and warnings are spread from Utah and Colorado into Montana. Heavy snow will fall through the next 24 hours, with two to three feet of snow possible in the highest elevations. Rainfall will be abundant in the valley locations. Additionally, winds gusting over 50 mph are possible across the area. Most of California, Arizona, and southern New Mexico will finally see some sun after several cloudy, and rainy, days. A weak system may bring a few late day showers to Northwest coastal areas. South: Mild temperatures will stretch from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic coast. There will be 80-degree readings across most of Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and into South Georgia. Seventies will be widespread across the rest of the region. Expect mostly sunny skies for the Southeast, including Florida. From northeast Texas through northern Mississippi and Tennessee, look for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon.

Northeast: After a cold and cloudy day that brought at least some snow to many parts of the Northeast, expect improved conditions for much of the region today. While only .1" of snow fell in New York City, that was just enough to bring the seasonal snow total to 40". This is the fourth consecutive year the city has received at least 40" of snow, the first time that has happened in recorded history. Other parts of New England picked up several inches of snow. Only a few spots in Upstate New York and Northern New England can expect to see additional snow today.(NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Incident Reports

Indiana: The National Weather Service confirmed F-1 tornadoes in Mitchell (Lawrence County), Seymour (Jackson County), and Romney (Tipppecanoe County).  All other damage was the result of straight-line winds.  Seven counties declared a State of Emergency: Daviess, Jennings, Knox, Greene, Johnson, Marion and Shelby Counties.

County Damage Reports: 22 homes destroyed (9 Mobile Homes) - 187 Major damage (19 mobile homes) - 262 minor (9 mobile homes) - 134 affected. These numbers are reported as county figures. The State did a flyover on 4/4/06 and they will be compiling data to report the state estimates. If a FEMA /State PDA is requested, it would not be initiated until mid next week.

Marion County power outages have been restored.  Sixteen miles of main line power poles are down near Princeton.  Numerous other power poles are down.  US-41 near Toyota Plant is closed due to power lines down.  Haubstadt, Princeton and Ft Branch were without power.

Red Cross establishing shelter in Mitchell (Lawrence county).  A National Guard Armory was opened as a feeding location and shelter 4/3. It was open Wednesday feeding people and will stay open Wednesday night as a shelter.

Vigo County Airport experienced significant wind damage.  30 hangars with significant structural damage.

The State EOC activated. INDOT assisted Shelby County at I-74 & London Road over the weekend.  Crews are assisting Daviess County (City of Washington) with debris clearing.  Crews are clearing debris from other State Routes at this time.

The FEMA Liaison dispatched to the State EOC was released at 1200 Wednesday. There is no request for Federal assistance at this time.  (FEMA Region V)

Kentucky: Beginning on April 2, widespread severe weather occurred including numerous super cell thunderstorms that tracked east across Kentucky, beginning in southeast Missouri late in the afternoon and exiting to the east of the region by midnight. 

Update as of : April 5, 2006, 4:30 pm CDT - There were no deaths, but 17 injuries (hospitalized) have been reported.   Several counties have reported sporadic power outages, downed trees and power lines, and varying degrees of damage to homes and businesses.

KY Emergency Management has requested a joint FEMA-State Individual Assistance (IA) preliminary damage assessment (PDA) to begin on April 7, 2006 for Christian County.  The Christian County local PDA team reported 88 homes destroyed, 54 with major damage, and 102 with minor damage.  Two counties (Todd and Christian) have issued local declarations.

Region IV has sent an acknowledgement of the PDA request to the KY Emergency Management Director.  Teams have been identified and deployed to KY to perform the PDA as requested.  The Regional Duty Officer will continue to monitor the situation and will remain in contact with the Commonwealth of Kentucky.   (FEMA Region IV)

California: Statewide, numerous reports of flooding have been reported.  In a few cases, residents are being sheltered.  Three counties have activated their Emergency Operation Centers (EOC) and declared States of Emergency.  The State of California has activated the State Operations Center (SOC) and one State Regional Emergency Operations Center (REOC) has been activated.  The three counties that report primary impacts are Calaveras, Stanislaus, and Merced Counties.

Calaveras County reports that a mobile home park in the Valley Springs area has been evacuated. Twenty residents are currently sheltered. California Department of Forestry (CDF) crews are working in three different areas sandbagging.  A local SAR team requested by Calaveras County is on standby.  DWR personnel are on scene evaluating a pond wall. 70 homes have been evacuated.  According to DWR, initial evaluation on the upper pond is not good, 25% of the embankment is gone and will continue to erode as long as uncontrolled flow continues out of the pond. The lower pond is being evaluated also as there is very little free board left.  USACE engineers are on scene along with flood fight specialist from DWR. Each pond estimated at 300 acre feet.

Stanislaus County is reporting overtopping of a canal in Oakdale which caused 3 residents to evacuate. There have been road closures. Hand crews have been requested and Swift Water Rescue is on stand-by status. They are watching Dry Creek as another potential problem.  Voluntary evacuations occurred in Oakdale (Orange Blossom Horseshoe area). Shelter Opened at Oakdale Community Center.

Merced County reports 9 CDF crews working today.  Four crews will be released tonight as they are stabilizing. They have evacuated 300 residences due to damaged homes. Two shelters have been opened, one in Atwater and the other at Merced High School.  The Le Grand canal bank failed in the Arboleda - Yosemite Avenue area, this will be a high priority.  State and local damage assessment teams are in the field to begin damage documentation.  Chowchilla is banking up their levees; they are 3 feet to the top. No increase to the Friant Dam release at this time.  Friant Dam is releasing at present 8,000cfs into the San Joaquin river bed; the maximum flow that the river can take is 12,000cfs and will cause flooding to a mobile home park 7 miles downstream from the dam. The number of mobile home units is unknown.  The Sheriff's Department is on standby to evacuate if required.

The flooding referenced above is occurring or has occurred outside the levee sites addressed in the FEMA Region IX coordinated Sacramento Valley Levee Response Plan Project (SVLRPP), the Governor's March levee emergency proclamation and the Delta region.  The Merced County breach is much farther south than the 24 sites referenced in the Governor's March emergency proclamation and east of the legally-designated Delta area. 

The California Office of Emergency Services (OES) reports that, Merced County has requested a Gubernatorial Disaster Declaration and Calaveras will make a request later today.  The SOC and the Inland REOC have been activated.  OES has issued 7 to 8 missions to assist local counties.  No Federal assistance has been requested at this time.  FEMA Region IX continues monitoring of events.  (FEMA Region IX)

North Dakota: The rapid snowmelt of heavy winter snow accumulations compounded by spring rains and sudden warm temperatures is causing spring flooding along the Red River Valley.

The NWS has forecast a 30-40% chance of light showers south of Fargo on April 06, 2006.  Forecasts for April 7-9, 2006, show a dominant high pressure system to the north producing sunshine and dry weather.  April 10-11, 2006, shows a 30-40% chance of moderate showers again in the southern portion of the valley.  Although moderate rainfall may occur, the limited precipitation is not expected to greatly influence the river heights and should simply prolong the flooding period. 

The Governor's office, State Water Commission (SWC), North Dakota Highway Patrol (NDHP), North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT), North Dakota Department of Health (NDDoH), North Dakota Department of Human Services (NDDHS), North Dakota National Guard (NDNG), North Dakota Air National Guard (NDANG), and the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services (NDDES) are monitoring the situation.

On April 5, 2006, Governor John Hoeven, the State Water Commission Engineer and the ND Division of Homeland Security Director made an aerial inspection of the Red River Valley along the border from Walsh County to Grand Forks, and later took a ground tour of flood-affected areas of the city. They met with the Grand Forks Mayor and other city and county officials to discuss flood conditions in the region and the community's preparedness for cresting waters.

On April 5, 2006, the ND State Operations Center (SOC) received the following updates from the respective agencies:

North Dakota National Guard (NDNG):  The NDNG currently has five soldiers on duty conducting maintenance and repositioning equipment to Grand Forks.  Engineering equipment includes: two dozers, one loader, one grader, four 20-ton dump trucks, and one sandbag machine. Liaison Officers are working with emergency managers.  NDNG's Quick Response volunteer lists have been updated.  To date, 28 NDNG personnel were involved in Lidgerwood dike response this past weekend; eight soldiers supported dike patrol operations in Wahpeton from March 31-April 3, 2006.

ND Highway Patrol (NDHP):  In addition to other locations previously reported, troopers are monitoring the Harwood area of I-29, where water is over the roadway.

ND State Water Commission (SWC):  SWC engineers continue to monitor and provide technical support.  

ND Civil Air Patrol (CAP):  CAP pilots conducted an aerial over-flight on April 3, 2006, and provided pictures to Cass County and SOC officials.

ND Department of Transportation (NDDOT):  NDDOT provided the following update on road conditions:
The ND Highway 44 is closed through Drayton due to diking on the roadway as a flood prevention measure for the town.
Water is crossing the roadway of ND Highway 54 east of I-29 (west of Oslo, MN.). Through-traffic is being allowed at this time; NDDOT is monitoring the conditions.

I- 29 at Harwood has water over the road. Local officials are working with NDDOT officials regarding traffic control.  Vehicles are being allowed to travel through the water on the roadway; however, if conditions worsen, traffic will be detoured.

On ND Highway 18, at mile post (mp) 8, south of Highway 11 in the Lidgerwood area, water is close to roadways. 

On U.S. Highway 81, mps 216 and 217, north of Glaston to Hamilton, water is on the roadway and traffic speeds are reduced.

North Dakota Highway 66 is closed between Drayton and the Red River due to flooding and debris on the highway.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): On April 5, 2006, USACE officials reported construction has been completed on an emergency levee in Grand Forks.  A contractor is on standby.  Emergency levee work has also been completed in Harwood and Lidgerwood.  Additionally, flood engineers are providing technical assistance to Grand Forks city officials. An emergency levee construction contract was issued on April 3, 2006, for the city of Drayton.  Work is expected to be completed April 5, 2006. The USACE also provided one hydraulic pump to the city of Harwood and two floating pumps to North River.

In Fargo/Cass County, the American Red Cross and Salvation Army have flood clean up kits and information available.  FEMA Region VIII continues to coordinate closely with state officials.   Other than the assistance from the U.S.A.C.E, there has been no request for Federal Assistance.   (FEMA Region VIII)

CA Faces New Storms; Crews Secure Berm

Crews shored up an earthen berm at a private golf course community Wednesday after heavy rains caused part of it to give way, damaging about 15 homes.  The National Weather Service is predicting more storms across the state through mid-April, with the next one forecast to move in Friday.
 
Gary Bardini, chief of hydrology flood operations at the Department of Water Resources, said state officials are working with the Bureau of Reclamation to release more water from reservoirs to make room for the additional rainfall.  In Marin County, north of San Francisco, a hillside home was deemed structurally unsound Wednesday after slipping a foot downhill in a slow landslide, said San Anselmo Police Capt. Jim Providenza.  Further soil movement could send the house tumbling down onto four homes below, he said. All the homes were evacuated Tuesday when the slide began.

The slide also threatened a water main that delivers water to 600 families nearby, Providenza said. Crews erected a temporary aboveground main to circumvent the site.
Rainfall also damaged crops, including strawberries, asparagus, peaches, plums and apricots.  (Media Sources)

ND Cities Think They May Escape Flooding

A levee and pump system under construction nearly a decade after flooding wiped out Grand Forks is passing its first big test.  The Red River was projected to crest Thursday at 48 feet - 20 feet above flood stage but well below the top of the new levee.  The other big city on the river, Fargo, also was feeling confident. The river has crested there with minimal damage, though meteorologists say it will stay high well into next week.  It's still too early to "pass the champagne and cigars," said Fargo's public works director, Dennis Walaker. He said it would take at least six days before the city reached a comfort level.

Grand Forks' $410 million levee system is about 85 percent complete. It includes a massive berm that stretches across the east edge of the city, a dozen water pumps and an extra channel cut through the earth to divert water.  Melting snow and heavy rain quickly pushed the Red River above its banks this spring, causing anxiety along the river that serves as the state line between Minnesota and North Dakota.  Gov. John Hoeven toured the city and outlying areas Wednesday and said he was impressed by the city's preparation.

In Minnesota, meanwhile, the Red and Wild Rice rivers crept toward flood crests near Hendrum, a small town about an hour's drive south of Grand Forks. An earthen dike kept the community mostly dry, allowing people to focus on sandbagging around farmhouses.
Workers pumped away water that seeped through the levee forming a square around Hendrum, one of many towns that beefed up flood protection after the 1997 flood.

The Wild Rice River reached 32.38 feet at noon Wednesday and was expected to crest at 32.6 feet Thursday morning. The town's levee, raised so that it stands 3 feet above the level that the water reached in 1997, protects to 36.8 feet.

Showers forecast for the Red River basin could prolong the high river levels but weren't expected to cause new problems, said Lynn Kennedy, a hydrometeorological technician with the weather service.  (Media Sources)

Active Hurricane Season Predicted for 2006

Forecasters expect another busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 17 named storms but not as many intense storms striking land as last year.

The 2005 season was the most destructive in recorded history, with 27 named storms and 14 hurricanes, including Katrina, which devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and killed more than 1,300 people.

This year's hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is likely to have nine hurricanes, five of them intense, according to Colorado State University researchers led by William Gray, who has been predicting hurricane activity for 22 years.

"Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006-2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons that follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005," Gray said.

Before the start of the 2005 season, Gray's team had predicted 13 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

For 2006, the team predicts an 81 percent probability that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline, and a 47 percent probability a major hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas.  (Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

PDAs for Individual Assistance is scheduled for April 7, 2006 for Christian County, Kentucky.
PDAs for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance are ongoing in Arkansas. (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Current situation:  The National Preparedness Level is 2.  Initial attack activity was light nationally with 123 new fires reported. Three new large fires were reported, one in Arkansas and two in Oklahoma. Two fires were contained. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Delaware, Illinois, and Indiana.

Red Flag Warnings: Northeast New Mexico, Eastern Colorado Foothills and Plains for strong winds and humidity.

Fire Weather Watches: Southeast New Mexico and parts of adjacent western Texas for strong winds and low humidity.

Outlook:  A surface low pressure system will create strong winds in combination with dry conditions for much of the Southwest, southeast Colorado, western Oklahoma, and southwestern Kansas. A large high pressure center will create dry conditions for the Southeast extending into the Mid-Atlantic States. (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1634-DR-TN was declared on April 5, 2006 for Severe Storms and Tornadoes.
FEMA-1635-DR-MO was declared on April 5, 2006 for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding.  (FEMA HQ)