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National Situation Update: Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Rain and Snow Forecast for East and West Coast Areas on Tuesday

West:  Rain and strong winds are forecast to again hit the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California on Tuesday. There will be threats from localized flooding and mud slides especially in the coastal areas of Oregon and Washington. The cold front will move eastward on Tuesday bringing high winds and heavy snowfall to Idaho and Wyoming. Heavy snow is forecast to also hit the Cascade Mountains region. The recent storms have created an extreme avalanche danger in the mountain areas of the Pacific Northwest.  

Northeast:  Light rainfall is forecast for a large part of the Northeast on Tuesday, especially in the coastal areas. A coastal flood watch has been issued for eastern Massachusetts from Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Most of the area will see rainy, windy, and cooler weather. Highs will range from the 20s in northern Maine to the 50s in southern Virginia.

South:  Most of the South will be dry on Tuesday with moderate temperatures. The Southwest including Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico will continue to see dry weather and temperatures in the 70s on Tuesday. High temperatures in the Southeast will range from the 40s in Tennessee to the 70s in Florida.

Midwest:  Except for some light snow and rain in the areas near the Great Lakes, most of the Midwest will see dry weather and warm temperatures on Tuesday. Highs will range from the 20s in Michigan to the 60s in Kansas. (NWS, Media Sources)

Alaskan Augustine Volcano Continues to Cause Airlines Restrictions

The Augustine Volcano, located approximately 180 miles southwest of Anchorage Alaska, is continuing to propel plumes of ash into the air, mainly over Kodiak Island. Temporary Flight Restrictions have been issued for aircraft flying within 5 nautical miles of the volcano up to 50,000 feet. The ash caused the grounding of flights to and from Kodiak Island on Sunday and Monday. There were no reports of ash in skies near Anchorage. Eruptions are expected to continue. No injuries or damages have been reported.  (NOAA/NWS, Media Sources)

New Snowstorm Rating Scale Established

Scientists working with NOAA officials have developed a new system for rating snowstorms. The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale will be used this winter to rate snowstorms in the Northeast US immediately after they strike. The scale ranks storms from 1, Notable: 2, Significant; 3, Major; 4, Crippling; 5, Extreme.

Developers indicate the scale will not be used as a warning tool but rather will allow storms to be compared with others. The major rating factors are the number of inches of snow, the land area affected, and the number of people affected.

Although the scale will be initially utilized for the Northeast, there are plans to extend the scale to other regions in the future.

Using the newly-developed scale, two Northeastern storms in recent years fall into the extreme category, one of which was the March 12-14, 1993 storm in which nearly 67 million people were affected by 10 inches of snow or more, almost 20 million were affected by 20 inches of snow or more, and 1.8 million were affected by 30 inches or more of snow.  (Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Several minor earthquakes were reported in parts of Alaska during the previous 24 hours.  No reports of damages or injuries were reported. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs for 17 counties in Oregon are scheduled for January 30, 2006 through February 3, 2006 as a result of flooding that occurred from mid-December to January 22, 2006.    (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Interagency Fire Center indicated that wildfire activity was light nationally with 3 new fires reported. One new large fire was reported in Texas. Fire danger continues to be very high to extreme in Texas.

Severe drought conditions continue for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, Missouri, and the Midwest.

Severe drought conditions expanded this past week to cover more of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. (NIFC, NOAA)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Offices for FEMA-DR-1609-FL, FEMA-DR-1616-ND, and FEMA-DR-1615-KS will close on Tuesday January 31, 2006.

The JFO for FEMA-DR-1622-MN will close February 10, 2006. (FEMA HQ)