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National Situation Update: Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: A Pacific Storm and associated frontal system is bringing additional rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest and spreading southward into northern California later today. A flood watch is in effect through this afternoon for portions of northwest Washington, west central Washington and western Washington - including the following counties; Clallam, Jefferson, Skagit, Whatcom, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston and Grays Harbor. Heavy snow is forecast for the Cascades and Sierras eastward to the Tetons and Wasatch.

Midwest: The low pressure system over the Lake Michigan has a trough extending northwest over Lake Superior, a cold front extending south to the Louisiana Gulf Coast and a Warm Front extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. The trough will produce a few inches of snow across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The frontal system will produce a rain/snow mix in Illinois, Michigan and southward to southeast Missouri without significant accumulation. Rain is forecast across Kentucky and the mid-Ohio Valley.

South: The cold front extending from the Great Lakes moving from west to east across the region will produce gusty winds, rain and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. Conditions will remain dry in the fire danger areas of Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Northeast: Warm air overrunning the cold air at the surface will produce sleet and freezing rain across Pennsylvania then spreading to Upstate New York and finally to New England by evening. Precipitation will begin as snow in New York and New England but change to rain later tonight. The Boston to New York corridor will have rain. (NOAA/NWS and Various Media Sources)

New Horizons Mission

Today at 1:24 p.m, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will make the first launch attempt for the New Horizons spacecraft. In the event of a postponement the launch window extends until Feb. 14, 2006.

After launch aboard an Atlas V, New Horizons will cross the entire span of the solar system in record time and conduct flyby studies of Pluto and its moon, Charon in 2015. No spacecraft has ever visited the planet, and not even the Hubble Space Telescope can spot details on its rocky, icy surface. The seven science instruments on the piano-sized probe would shed light on the bodies' surface properties, geology, interior makeup and atmospheres. Depending on its launch date, New Horizons could reach the Pluto system as early as mid-2015, conducting a five-month-long study possible only from the close-up vantage of a spacecraft.

New Horizons' electrical power comes from a single radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG). The New Horizons RTG, provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), carries approximately 24 pounds of plutonium dioxide (mostly Pu-238, a non-weapons-grade isotope). An RTG has no moving parts, and uses neither fission nor fusion processes to produce energy. Instead, it provides power through the natural radioactive decay of plutonium. The heat generated by this natural process is changed into electricity by a solid-state thermoelectric converter. RTGs enable spacecraft to operate at significant distances from the Sun or in other areas where solar power systems would not be feasible.

Risk Assessment and Launch Approval: Any mission that plans to use an RTG as a power source undergoes a safety analysis carried out by the DOE. The safety analysis report provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of a broad range of possible launch accidents. In addition to the DOE review, an Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP), which is supported by experts from government, industry and academia, is established as part of a Presidential nuclear safety launch approval process to evaluate the safety analysis report prepared by DOE. Based upon the INSRP evaluation and views from DOE and other Federal agencies, NASA may then submit a request for nuclear safety launch approval to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). The OSTP Director (i.e., the President's science adviser) may make the nuclear safety launch decision or refer the matter to the President. In either case, the launch cannot proceed until nuclear safety launch approval has been granted. The United States has an outstanding record of safety in using RTGs on 24 missions over the past 40 years.

The New Horizons mission risk analyses show that the probability of a launch area accident with a release of plutonium is about one in 350 launches. Even in the event of a plutonium release, the risk to the public and workers is low, because the most likely launch area accidents involve small releases of plutonium dioxide that lead to either no exposure or exposure to very low radiation doses to individuals (significantly less than the doses due to natural background radiation). No additional cancer fatalities in the launch area would be expected from doses at this level, even over a time span of 50 years. (Excerpts from NASA)

Augustine Volcano

The level of earthquake activity at Augustine Volcano remains relatively low since the last explosive event on January 14, 2006. Current level of concern color code: ORANGE

The level of seismic activity at the volcano remains above background. It is likely, but not certain, that further explosive activity will occur. Explosive events similar to those of January 13 and 14 could occur with little or no warning. Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) will continue 24/7 staffing and will be monitoring activity closely. (USGS/ Alaska Volcano Observatory)

Tropical Activity

There are no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and Pacific. (National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity during the past 24 hours in the United States or its Territories. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Red flag warning continues until 6 pm today for all of north Texas. Gusty northwest winds from 20 to 30 mph will combine with low humidity and very dry vegetation to create critical fire weather conditions. A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly.

Fire Outlook for January 2006:

• For the first half of January, the National Weather Service predicts a continued warmer and drier than normal trend for the Texas regional area. Upper level patterns indicate that very few strong disturbances will move through the region, limiting the potential for precipitation, and allowing temperatures to continue to be warmer than normal.
• The 30 day outlook is for continued above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the Texas area. This trend is also expected to continue through February and March with above normal temperatures coupled with below normal precipitation predicted for Texas and much of the southwestern conterminous United States. (Region VI, NIFC, and Various Media Sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)