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National Situation Update: Monday, January 16, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South:Low pressure developing over Texas Monday will threaten much of the state with some rain, but only far eastern sections are likely to see enough to measure. Farther east, scattered showers and severe but isolated thunderstorms are expected to appear from eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma eastward into Tennessee and the Tennessee Valley.  Locally heavy rain and strong-to-occasionally severe thunderstorms will sweep the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast States.

A cold front will usher cooler conditions into the southern Plains and Texas Monday. Due to gusty winds and the on-going drought, the red flag warning will continue another day over parts of Texas.

It may be the dead of winter, but spring-like thunderstorms will develop in the South early this week as a cold front slicing down from the north will clash with warm moist air flowing up from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a strong jet stream will wrap under the belly of a storm system moving through the Midwest. The result will be strong to severe thunderstorms developing from east Texas to the lower Mississippi River Valley late in the day Monday. The strong storms will gradually shift to the east affecting a large part of the South on Tuesday. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Florida is primed for a frosty start Monday morning. High pressure over the Sunshine state will set up ideal conditions for traditional cooling. With a clear sky and calm winds, temperatures will drop to near freezing level across the interior peninsula. This will result in a widespread frost across the fruit growing regions of Florida and some locations will drop well below freezing, bringing the threat of a hard freeze.

West:Rain, gusty winds and mountain snow will return in earnest to the Pacific Northwest and northern California for Monday. The heaviest downpours will soak areas west of the Cascades while deep snow piles up in the Cascades. Snow levels are expected to start out quite low and rise from 3,000 to 5,000 feet, north to south, by afternoon. Farther south, strong northerly winds are expected for the mountains and canyons of Southern California overnight into early Monday. In New Mexico, light showers and mountain snow will dampen much of the state on Monday.

After a relatively quiet day Sunday, a new snow storm system will plow into the Northwest Monday. This storm will pack a combination of heavy rain and gusty winds. Along the coast, winds will average 20-35 mph with gusts past 50 mph. And with an already saturated ground, it will not take much to send already rain-swollen rivers and streams out of their banks.

Northeast:Strong, gusty northwest winds will continue over New England Monday. A few snow flurries in northern New England. High temperatures throughout the Northeast will be near to somewhat below seasonal averages, although West Virginia and western Virginia may manage to creep above average. Afternoon readings are expected to range from the teens in northern New York and northern New England to the 50s across southern Virginia. 

Overnight and Monday, strong northwest winds, significant wind chill and blowing snow will linger across New England as a powerful storm center stalls over the Canadian Maritimes. Winds even on Monday could gust between 30 and 45 mph especially over southeast Massachusetts.

Midwest:An upper-air disturbance and attendant surface low will drop generally light snow (or rain changing to snow) on the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday. Some spots may pick up 2 or 3 inches, and northern Minnesota could see up to 6 inches. The majority of Michigan and the lower Midwest, meanwhile, are expected to remain dry. On Tuesday, steady rain will move across the Ohio Valley while some light snow lingers in the Upper Midwest. 

The focus of wintry weather will shift to the upper Midwest Monday as a storm system gathers strength over the nation's midsection and moves toward the Great Lakes region. Cold air coming down from Canada will mix with moisture moving up from the south. Most of the snow will be concentrated over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, where 1-3 inches of snow is forecasted to fall. Flurries will fall farther south, but the most notable change will occur with temperatures. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

STARDUST Capsule Brings First Comet Dust To Earth

After a seven-year journey, a NASA space capsule returned safely to Earth in rural Utah near the Dugway Proving Grounds at 4:57 am EST on Sunday, January 15, 2006 with the first dust ever fetched from a comet, a cosmic bounty that scientists hope will yield clues to how the solar system formed.

The capsule's blazing plunge through the atmosphere lit up parts of the western sky as it capped a mission in which the Stardust spacecraft swooped past a comet known as Wild 2.  (NASA and Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grants

Approved January 15, 2006: #2620 Caddo Fire, Texas, threatening 120 homes in the area of Possum Kingdom and Caddo Bay, in Palo Pinto County.  (FEMA HQ)

US Geological Survey Officials Downgrade Volcano's Status

US Geological Survey officials on Sunday, January 15, 2006, downgraded the status of Augustine Volcano after a 30-hour period without any eruptions.

Seismicity declined to levels that made the USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) comfortable with taking the volcano from color code RED to ORANGE.

Seismic activity on Sunday was still higher than normal, but not as active as it was before and between the eruptions with several small earthquakes an hour. (FEMA Region X, USDOI/USGS/ Alaska Volcano Observatory/USGS, USDOC/NOAA/National Weather Service, Alaska Department. of Homeland Security and Emergency Services, and Various Media Sources)

Tropical Activity

There are no tropical systems worldwide. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude-3.6 earthquake was reported about 21 miles east of San Jose near the border of Santa Clara and Stanislaus Counties. No injuries or damage was reported. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Preparedness Level remains at 2.  Initial attack activity was light nationally with 20 new fires reported. Two new large fires were reported, and three were contained in the Southern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Nebraska, Texas, Georgia, Kansas, and South Dakota.

A Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) was approved for the Caddo Fire in Stephens County, Texas. The 2000 plus acre fire is in the eastern part of the county above Route 180 and is threatening Palo Pinto County. There are 120 homes in the immediately threatened area of Possum Kingdom and Caddo Bay. The fire is a rapid spread fire with spotty starts and is uncontrolled.

Firefighters are still fighting a wildfire near Aguilar, Colorado. The Mauricio Fire has scorched nearly 3900 acres in southern Colorado over the last week. The fire burned in both Las Animas and Huerfano Counties. Snow and calmer winds helped firefighters. So far the fire is 45% contained. The cost has reached more than $262,000 to fight.

Crews are now working to put out hot spots from a grass fire that sparked the Owasso Fire, north of Tulsa, Oklahoma. So far, at least one structure has been destroyed. Several other homes and structures were threatened, but firefighters say they have the situation under control at this time.

A blaze north of Stillwater, Oklahoma consumed 580 acres, another fire west of Beggs forced the evacuation of several homes and prompted the closure of State Highway 16 Sunday afternoon. That fire destroyed an estimated 375 acres.

A cold front will move through the fire prone areas of the south-central states Monday but will not bring relief in the form of rain.  Instead, it will produce strong north winds with speeds averaging 15-25 mph, with gusts past 35 mph.  As a result, expect numerous red flag warnings to be issued in eastern New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, northwestern Texas, and Oklahoma for Monday.

Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue over Florida. (Region VI, NIFC, and Various Media Sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)