National Situation Update: Sunday, January 15, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast: The potent low-pressure system that unleashed its fury on much of the region with plenty of rain, snow, and wind on Saturday and Saturday night will head towards the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. However, the storms effects will still be quite evident across much of the region. Strong north-to-northwest winds will continue to pound the region and combine with much colder temperatures to put an extra chill in the air. Wind gusts will peak between 30 and 50 mph in many parts of the Northeast. Highs are expected to be between 5 and 10 degrees below average at best ranging from the teens and 20s along the Canadian border to the 40s and lower 50s in Virginia. The changeover from rain to snow will have completed its west to east journey through New England as Maine changes over Sunday morning. Snow will continue from New York to New England with additional amounts on Sunday ranging from 1-3 inches in Long Island and Southern New England to 3-8 inches across interior portions of northern Maine.

South: Precipitation will be absent from the region on Sunday and the winds will be calmer across the southeastern states. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the Southern Plains where winds will gusty at times leading to another day of high fire danger. Sunday afternoon temperatures in south-central states will be in the 60s and 70s combined with very low relative humidity and west to southwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph in western Texas and 25 to 40 mph elsewhere. The southeastern part of the region can expect temperatures to rebound on Sunday and Monday ahead of the next cold front. That cold front will dive across Texas and Oklahoma on Monday with rain and thunderstorms developing ahead of it from eastern Texas through the lower-Mississippi Valley.

West:  Snow will coat the Intermountain West and the Rockies as a cold front and associated upper-level system work across the region today. Gusty winds over the higher elevations will drift snow with storm total accumulations exceeding a foot in parts of Utah's Wasatch and Colorado's San Juan Mountains. Snow is expected in the lower elevations as well with Salt Lake City seeing the possibility of several inches by Sunday night. By Monday morning, Denver could also see some snow along with much colder temperatures. The Pacific Northwest will only see a few showers on Sunday as high pressure slides across the area. A new storm will roll into the region to start the week with the warm front sliding through on Monday and the cold front slamming in on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will be accompanied by plenty of rainfall for the lowlands and snow for the Cascades.

Midwest: A new area of low pressure will develop in the Plains today, but will have very little moisture to work with. However, some very light snow or freezing drizzle is possible right along the Canadian border. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions to rule the region from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes westward to the Plains. High temperatures will be as much as 10-25 degrees above average in Mississippi Valley and the Plains states. This translates into afternoon readings ranging from the 20s and 30s in Michigan to the 50s and 60s in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. Snow is expected to develop behind the new low-pressure system from western and central Kansas northeastward to the Upper Midwest as it heads eastward towards the mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

Carolinas Assess Damage After Tornados

A handful of homes were declared uninhabitable Saturday after a fast-moving storm system sent an unseasonable tornado whipping through a Gastonia neighborhood.

A second tornado hit rural Greene County about 60 miles southeast of Raleigh early Saturday as the storm system moved east overnight. Neither twister caused any injuries or deaths.

The storm, which traveled through the state from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning, unleashed gusts that cut power Saturday to more than 17,000 homes and businesses in North Carolina, mostly in the central and west.

The Greene County tornado took the roofs off several homes. By noon Saturday, 1,200 homes and businesses in Greene County were still without power.

In the western mountains, Progress Energy reported more than 1,000 homes and businesses in Black Mountain remained without power Saturday due to the storm.

Duke Power Co., which serves about two million customers in western and central North Carolina and South Carolina, reported more 27,000 customers without power across both states Saturday afternoon, spokeswoman Paige Sheehan said.

In South Carolina four tornadoes were reported Friday evening in Bamberg, Orangeburg and Clarendon counties according to the National Weather Service. Most of the damage was in the Clarendon County storm where eleven people were injured. Nine mobile homes were destroyed and another 18 were damaged, all within close proximity. (Various Media Sources)

Volcano Sprinkles Ash on Peninsula

Another eruption that occurred on Mt. Augustine around 12:15 a.m. (4:15 a.m. EST) Saturday, on top of the five blasts that were observed on Friday, is likely the start of a prolonged series of eruptions building toward an even bigger finale.

Volcanic ash and snowfall began sifting down on the communities of Nanwalek, Port Graham, Seldovia and Homer early Friday afternoon after the eruptions sent ash clouds more than six miles into the sky.

Alaska Airlines canceled many flights in and out of Anchorage, citing the clouds of ash drifting in the dark.

Scientists said similar eruptions are likely to continue into the weekend. Meteorologists with the National Weather Service said winds on Saturday were expected to continue carrying ash east toward the Kenai Peninsula. State and local emergency officials said they'd been told the wind could shift more toward the north and Anchorage by late Sunday.

A spokesman for Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) said that at some point the eruptions are going to open a route for magma to reach the surface in what would probably be a bigger explosive eruption releasing far more ash. Historically, this volcano tends to put out a series of eruptions, said the U.S. Geological Survey office in Anchorage but they do not expect the current eruptive activity to culminate in a large catastrophic event.   (FEMA Region X, USDOI/USGS/ Alaska Volcano Observatory/USGS, USDOC/NOAA/National Weather Service, Alaska Department. of Homeland Security and Emergency Services, and Various Media Sources)

Nations Convene To Mobilize Pandemic Flu Preparedness: International Pledging Conference in Beijing Seeks to Raise $1 billion

The International Pledging Conference on Avian and Human Influenza convenes in Beijing on January 17-18, 2006 with a goal of winning commitments of $1 billion or more to help combat outbreaks of bird flu and avert the emergence of a human influenza pandemic. 

The government of China, the World Bank, and the European Commission are jointly sponsoring the meeting; donor nations and affected nations are attending.  The World Bank has conducted a study estimating the costs of preparedness at between $1.2 billion and $1.4 billion.  A U.S. delegation will attend the Beijing meeting.

In 2005, the United States earmarked more than $50 million to help other nations control avian influenza and prepare for a possible human influenza pandemic.

In legislation signed at the end of December 2005, President Bush approved almost $280 million in additional foreign assistance to help other nations build capacity to detect and contain disease and improve animal and human health care systems.

The strain of avian influenza has made at least 150 people sick over the last two years, killing 78, according to the most current accounting from the World Health Organization (WHO).  Virtually all those people were infected through some contact with infected birds.

International health officials fear that this virulent form of bird flu - a strain known as H5N1 - will change to become contagious among humans, making conditions right for pandemic.  A human pandemic could cost millions of lives and produce enormous social and economic upheaval, and that is what has made international policymakers intensify their focus on the issue over the last several months.  (US Department of State)

U.S. States, Cities to Get Federal Pandemic Preparation Funds: Assistance Will Help Communities Meet Responsibilities, Health Secretary Says

To increase U.S. national preparedness for a potential influenza pandemic, the Department of Health and Human Services is allocating $100 million in federal funds among state and local governments, the department said January 12, 2006.

The allocation is part of a total of $350 million that Congress set aside for the improvement of state and local infrastructure when it passed a $3.8 billion emergency appropriation for avian flu preparedness in December 2005.  Funding will go to the governments of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, as well as seven U.S. territories and the commonwealth of Puerto Rico.  The governments of New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles County also will receive separate grants.  The funds are intended to reinforce state and local governments' efforts to develop plans for "practical, community-based procedures" to prevent or limit the spread of pandemic influenza. 

Each state will receive a minimum of $500,000, with additional allocation of funds by population.  In addition to the state grants, funds are being awarded to New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles County.  The remaining $250 million from the appropriation will be awarded later this year in accord with guidance that will require progress and performance.

States and municipalities will use these funds to accelerate and intensify current planning efforts for pandemic influenza and to exercise their plans.  The focus is on practical, community-based procedures that could prevent or delay the spread of pandemic influenza, and help to reduce the burden of illness communities would contend with during an outbreak.

Later in 2006, the department will decide how to distribute the remaining $250 million, based on measures of progress and performance.  (US Department of Health and Human Services)

Fewer Deaths Than 2004, But Earthquakes Still Kill Nearly 90,000 In 2005

According to the US Geological Survey, a component of the US Department of the Interior, although there were fewer deaths worldwide in 2005 due to earthquakes, more than 89,353 casualties were reported.  These statistics were confirmed by the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Nearly all of the fatalities for the year, more than 87,000, occurred when a magnitude 7.6 hit Pakistan on October 8, 2005.

The most notable U.S. earthquake occurred offshore Eureka, California.  This magnitude 7.2 event on June 15, 2006 was widely felt onshore and triggered tsunami warnings in several communities from Washington to Mexico along the Pacific coast. A series of smaller events on the southern end of the San Andreas Fault followed, with the largest magnitude being 5.2. The largest onshore earthquake recorded in the United States during 2005 was a magnitude 5.6 in western Montana that produced no fatalities, but was felt as far as Denver, Colorado, Seattle, Washington, and Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

In 2004, the third deadliest earthquake year on record, over 283,000 perished in the December 26, 2004 magnitude 9.0 Sumatra quake and related tsunami. This event was likely the trigger for a magnitude 8.7 quake, which struck the adjacent zone of Sumatra on March 28, 2005. This earthquake left 1313 people dead and was the largest temblor for 2005.

The deadliest quake of 2005 was the 7.6 in northern Pakistan, killing 87,351 and injuring more than 69,000. Extensive damage occurred in the Muzaffarabad area, Kashmir, where entire villages were destroyed, and at Uri where 80 percent of the town was devastated.

The USGS locates about 80 earthquakes each day or almost 29,000 a year. On average, there are 18 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 to 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or higher) each year worldwide. Several million earthquakes occur in the world each year, but many go undetected because they occur in remote areas or have very small magnitudes. In the U.S., earthquakes pose significant risk to 75 million people in 39 states.  (USDOI/USGS)

NASA'S Stardust Returns to Earth

At 4:57 a.m. EST, Sunday, January 15, 2006, four hours after being released by the Stardust spacecraft, the capsule will enter Earth's atmosphere at an altitude of 125 kilometers (410,000 feet) over Northern California. The capsule is scheduled to land on the salt flats of the Utah Test and Training Range at 5:12 a.m. EST, Sunday, January 15, 2006.  During reentry, the capsule will be visible over portions of California, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah.  In addition, it is possible for observers to hear the sonic boom "rumble" if they are not too far away.  (NASA)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity affecting U.S. interests in the Eastern, Central or Western Pacific Oceans. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

In the last 24 hours there were 5 minor earthquakes in Alaska with magnitudes of 3.0 to 4.5.  No injuries or damage reported. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

General
Valid through Sunday, January 15, 2006: Extremely critical fire weather area for much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle and critical fire weather area for extreme eastern New Mexico southwest into north-central Texas, central Oklahoma, and southwest Kansas.  The active fire weather pattern will continue through the weekend and conditions will perhaps be worse on Sunday. The weekend weather outlook calls for continued fire danger over much of the area on Saturday, but a storm system moving into the area should bring improving conditions for Sunday and Monday.

Valid through Monday, January 16, 2006: Extremely critical fire weather area for eastern New Mexico, the southern Texas plains, and western Oklahoma and critical fire weather area for eastern New Mexico southwest north-central Texas, most of Oklahoma, and southern Kansas.

  • Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in Nebraska and South Dakota.
  • National Preparedness Level 2.
  • Fire activity remains light nationally with 33 new fires reported.
  • Three new large fires were reported: two in Oklahoma and one in New Mexico.
  • The Plainview fire near Denver, Colorado was contained yesterday.
  • The fire in New Mexico also reached containment.
  • The majority of the firefighting activity is on State and private land.
  • Federal agencies are supporting the States by filling orders for requested resources.
  • High winds and low humidity's combined for extreme fire behavior in Oklahoma yesterday, while Texas avoided a major increase in activity.
  • Red flag warning areas today include east central and parts of coastal Texas, and central Louisiana.
  • Fire weather advisories remain in effect for much of Oklahoma, north Texas and central Florida.

Texas
Texas aircraft flew 509 missions and dropped 435,620 gallons of fire retardant Friday (January 13).  A total 2,220 sorties have been flown and 1,988,665 gallons of fire retardant has been dropped since December 26.

Texas Civil Air Patrol (CAP) flew 45 hours and detected 6 fires January 13.  CAP has flown over 503 hours and has detected 91 fires since 26 December.  In addition to the 211 County burn bans there are 65 local disaster proclamations.

Oklahoma
Fire crews from around the state contained a fire Saturday morning in Ratliff City that charred 19,200 acres, destroyed 23 homes and two businesses and killed 35 cattle.

Another major fire that started Thursday, in northwest Stephens County near Central High School, was contained on Saturday morning. The fire burned 5,760 acres and destroyed six homes.

Statewide, 26 homes, three mobile homes and two businesses were destroyed in Thursday's fires.  (Region VI, NIFC, and Various Media Sources)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Wednesday, 29-Mar-2006 14:57:05 EST