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National Situation Update: Thursday, January 12, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: The rain in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California will continue as the next front moves ashore. Another couple of inches of rain are forecast, producing a potential for mudslides. A flood watch continues for portions of west central Washington and western Washington, including the counties of King, Lewis, Pierce, Thurston, and Grays Harbor. Snow is forecast to spread eastward to the Dakotas and as far south as Colorado

Midwest: A low pressure system over the Great Lakes has a cold front extending southward to Oklahoma. Expect light snow into portions of Minnesota and rain/snow mix for the Minneapolis area.  Scattered light rain showers are forecast for Iowa, Missouri and Eastern Kansas.

South: The fire danger remains high across the southern Plains. A "dry" cold front is dropping southeast through the area, lacking moisture it will increase the fire danger since it is forecast to increase the wind speed. Dry conditions should remain in the southern Plains into the weekend. The cold front will eventually find some moisture over the Southeast tonight and Friday producing a band of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures continue to run well above average with today's  highs forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.

Northeast: High pressure is forecast to move over the East Coast. Expect clearing conditions as drier air works back into the region. (National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

The Augustine Volcano in Cook Inlet, Alaska (180 miles southwest of Anchorage) erupted on Wednesday, January 11, 2006 at 08:44 am EST and 09:13 am EST. This prompted the current level of concern being raised from ORANGE to RED.

Level of Concern Color Code:

• Green: Volcano is in its normal "dormant" state.
• Yellow: Volcano is restless. Seismic activity is elevated. Potential for eruptive activity is increased. A plume of gas and steam may rise several thousand feet above the volcano which may contain minor amounts of ash.
• Orange: Small ash eruption expected or confirmed. Plume(s) not likely to rise above 25,000 feet above sea level. Seismic disturbance recorded on local seismic stations, but not recorded at more distant locations.
• Red: Large ash eruptions expected or confirmed. Plume likely to rise above 25,000 feet above sea level. Strong seismic signal recorded on all local and commonly on more distant stations.

The ash cloud was estimated at 30,000 feet above sea level and is being tracked. An ash-fall advisory was issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) at 10:44 am EST and by 11:40 am EST had drifted 25 miles east and 30 miles north. No reports of ash fall on the ground have been received.

The current activity is not associated with any tsunami hazard. The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) does not normally monitor volcano activity but is working in close coordination with the USGS watching the current activity at Mt. Augustine. The probability of a volcanic eruption triggering a damaging tsunami is low, but the possibility does exist and historically they have occurred. Such a tsunami could cause dangerous flooding of low-lying coastal areas surrounding the Lower Cook Inlet between the Barren Islands to the south and Kalgin Island to the north. Shallow depths of upper Cook Inlet would cause a tsunami to diminish considerably, making the risk to Anchorage extremely low.

Seismic activity has decreased dramatically to a quiet level currently, however, it is likely that stronger and further volcanic activity will resume according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). It is possible that this activity may mark the beginning of an eruptive phase if it follows historical eruption patterns of 1976 and 1986. AVO will continue to monitor activity on a 24-hour schedule and issue further updates as new information and analyses become available.

Unrest continues and additional eruptive activity could occur at any time.

State and local communities are monitoring the situation, and the FEMA Region X State Liaison is co-located with the State. However, there is no federal involvement anticipated at this time. (FEMA Region X, AVO, USGS)

Oklahoma Wildfires Update

Fire activity was low on Tuesday as light precipitation brought temporary relief to the fire situation in central Oklahoma.   However, not all of the state received relief as portions of southern Oklahoma did not receive any precipitation.  "It is important to realize that the light moisture received late Monday and early Tuesday provided us with only a very temporary pause from the fire situation," said Mark Goeller, Incident Commander.  A warming trend is expected to increase fire activity later in the week.  Rain chances remain near zero into the weekend. 

The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) remains activated and continues to work in conjunction with the Incident Command Post to support local fire departments and other first responders.  Joint federal-state damage assessment teams from FEMA, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) and the State Office of Emergency Management (OEM) continue to work with local officials in assessing community damages due to the wildfires.  (FEMA Region VI, OK OEM)

Texas Wildfires Update

The State of Texas experienced a lower fire suppression operational tempo resulting in a lower number of new fire starts on Monday.  This temporary reprieve allowed local and volunteer fire departments and state fire responders to take advantage of this time to perform repairs and maintenance on fire equipment, provide for a brief rest, reposition needed equipment to those areas of greater threat of fire occurrence, and conduct mop-up operations on contained fires.   All state resources and capability continue to be prepared for immediate response. 

Gusty south winds and low humidity continue to create a high fire danger in North Texas.  The light rainfall in Northeast Texas should help the fire situation there, and there are continued chances of rain towards the end of the week as models show a pattern change for the systems passing through the area, bringing a few showers and thunderstorms.  In Central Texas a cold front has brought much cooler and drier air to the area.  Moisture should return to the area resulting in low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle.  (FEMA Region VI, TX State Operations Center)

Tropical Activity

There is no tropical activity affecting U.S. interests in the Atlantic or and Pacific Oceans. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A moderate earthquake occurred at 5:02 am (EST) on Wednesday, January 11, 2006. The magnitude 5.6 event was located off the coast of Oregon. 264 miles west-southwest of Portland at a depth of 6.2 miles. No Tsunami was generated. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The most recently approved FMAGS follow:

• Approved January 11, 2006: #2617 Niederwald Fire, TX, threatening Niederwald, Hays County - 50 people evacuated, 1 home lost and 5 on fire. 55 other homes /businesses threatened. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1615-DR-Kansas Joint Field Office (JFO) has been approved to close January 31, 2006.

On January 11, 2006 the President declared a major disaster for Texas (FEMA-1624-DR-TX) for Severe Wildfire Threat for the period December 1, 2005, and continuing.

Designations and types of assistance:

• Individual Assistance: The counties of Callahan, Cooke, Eastland, Erath, Hood, Montague, Palo Pinto, Tarrant and Wise.
• Public Assistance: All 254 counties in the State of Texas for Category B emergency protective measures implemented on or after December 27, 2005. Emergency protective measures will include eligible costs as determined by FEMA to be resulting from wildfires that pose a significant threat to life and property in any county, or portion thereof, to be designated by FEMA, in consultation with the State, for as long as such areas are threatened by an urgent danger of such wildfires. This assistance will be provided at 75 percent Federal funding.
• Designation of specific counties eligible for reimbursement will be made on a weekly basis for the duration of the incident, and those designated for approved reimbursements will be based on measurable weather and fire conditions that identify areas threatened by an urgent danger from wildfires.
• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program: All counties in the State of Texas are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
• Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation. ( FEMA HQ)