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National Situation Update: Wednesday, January 4, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West: High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep precipitation at a minimum. Scattered snow showers are forecast in the northern and central Rockies and isolated showers west of the Cascades.

Midwest: A low pressure system centered over Wisconsin has an occluded front extending south to Missouri where the cold front extends to eastern Texas and the warm front extends to the Florida panhandle. Weather associated with this system will be limited to rain and snow showers from the Upper Midwest to just south of the Great Lakes. High temperatures will continue to run well above early winter norms with readings ranging from the 20s in northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota to the 50s from Kansas and southwestern Nebraska into the Ohio Valley and Kentucky.

South: Despite the cold front moving eastward through the South the weather will remain dry due to a lack of moisture associated with the front so there will be little relief for the fires in Oklahoma and Texas. High temperatures throughout the South will remain well above seasonal norms, ranging from the 50s to the 70s, north to south and areas around Laredo, Texas, may top 80.

Northeast: Except for a few showers pushing into western New York and western Pennsylvania ahead of cold front tomorrow, the Northeast should stay dry. (National Weather Service)

Western States Wind, Snow and Flood event (December 30-January 2)

A series of strong storms hit the western US over the past week, leading to widespread coastal and river flooding and local wind damage. The strongest of the series produced very heavy rains Friday and Saturday, leading to moderate to major flooding in western Oregon, northern California, and western Nevada. One more strong wave hit central and southern California on Sunday; this storm was colder with much lower snow levels. Monday presented more wind and rain to central and southern California. By late Monday evening, most rain had ended along the California coast and Sacramento Valley, with only one band remaining over the southern Sierras.

On Sunday, strong winds and high water caused a levee to be overtopped near Twitchell Island, CA and flooding continued Monday morning.

Significant wind reports include gusts to 97 mph in Humboldt Bay, CA, to 84 mph at Saint George, UT, to 80 mph in Neah Bay, WA Sunday and to 63 mph in Sacramento Sunday.

Snowfall as of Sunday evening in the Sierras left as much as 5 feet of snow at Mt. Rose Nevada, 46 inches at Agnew Pass, and numerous totals of 2 to 3 feet. In Idaho up to 26 inches fell near Ketchum, and in Utah up to 35 inches fell in the Wasatch mountains.

River levels at more than 50 forecast points exceeded flood stage. Among the most severe were:

• Truckee River - at Vista, crested at 20.3 ft., 5 ft above flood stage. Moderate to major flooding in downtown Reno and Sparks.
• Carson River - near Carson City - crested at 12.5 ft, 1.5 above major flood stage.
• Susan River - at Susanville - Crested at 13.9 ft. - major flood stage…with extensive flooding of many homes.
• Russian River - at Guerneville - crested at 41.9 ft, above major flood stage. Forecast to fall below flood stage Tuesday. At Hopland - Crested at 27 ft., 4 ft. above major flood stage; third highest ever recorded.
• Napa River - at Napa - crested at 29.8 ft., 2 ft. above major flood stage. At St. Helena, crested at 21.6 ft., which is the highest level ever recorded; major flood stage is 18 ft.
• Navarro River - at Navarro - Crested at 40 ft., 17 ft above flood stage; second highest ever recorded.
• Klamath River - at Klamath - Crested at 47 ft., 9 ft above flood stage; second highest ever recorded.
• Sacramento River - above Bend Bridge - crested at 30 ft., major flood stage. Further downstream, the river crested above flood stage at most locations but remained below major flood stage. Sacramento Weir was opened at 830 am PST, to divert water from the river into a bypass.
• South Fork Coquille River - at Myrtle Point - crested at 42 ft., major flood stage.
• Combination of high tides, winds, and seas lead to flooding along the coastline in Oregon and northern California.

In Sonoma County, the Russian River has dropped below flood stage and floodwaters are receding. Sonoma County Office of Emergency Services reports an initial estimate of $57 million for residential, commercial and infrastructural damage. Approximately 450 customers remain without power. A local assistance center was opened Tuesday afternoon in the most impacted town of Guerneville. The American Red Cross continues to operate a shelter in Sebastopol; a shelter at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds in Santa Rosa closed Tuesday afternoon.

In Napa County, local governments report an estimated 1,200 homes and 250 businesses damaged by floodwaters from the Napa River. Wine country vineyards were flooded but considered spared as harvests were completed in the fall. A local assistance center has been established in the city of Napa.

In Sacramento County, approximately 25 residents remain evacuated from leveed Twitchell Island as work crews attempt to secure a boil leak and strengthen the levee; concern remains among local and State officials that the levee may fail. Other levees of the Sacramento Delta continue to undergo maintenance and monitoring.

A new storm system nearing the Pacific Northwest on Friday is forecast to skirt the northern border areas of California. Clouds and light rain continue in many areas of Northern California. A storm system has passed through Southern California with minimal impact; despite moderate rain and heavy winds, no fatalities or damaged structures were reported in Southern California.

On Monday, January 2, the Governor declared a state of emergency for Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Napa, Sacramento, Sonoma and Trinity counties. As improved weather and receding rivers allowed for recovery and assessment of storm impact, additional counties requested a State declaration: Butte, El Dorado, Lake, Lassen, Marin, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Sierra, Siskiyou, Solano, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba. Additional counties may be included in subsequent declarations. All requesting and approved counties are in the northern half of the state. The State EOC downgraded its activation to duty officer status at 1700 PST (2000 EST) Tuesday January 3.

No request for Federal assistance has been received at this time. All immediate response requirements are being met at the local and state level. The FEMA Region IX RRCC is activated at level 3, with Duty Officer Watch. A FEMA Region IX State Liaison is assigned at the state EOC. FEMA Region IX is preparing personnel for assignment to joint preliminary damage assessment (PDA) teams in the event of a State request. (National Weather Service, Region IX)

Oklahoma Fire Response

The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) remains activated to support local fire departments and other first responders who continue to battle wildfires across Oklahoma.

On Friday, Oklahoma’s Type II Incident Management Team established an Incident Command Post (ICP) in Shawnee. The ICP continues to serve as a centralized point for coordination of the firefighting resources. The following agencies, departments and organizations are represented at the ICP: the Forestry Division of the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM), Oklahoma Military Department (OMD), U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), National Weather Service (NWS), and the Pottawatomie County/Shawnee Emergency Management Department.

Fires have now been reported in Beaver, Creek and Kay counties, bringing to 33 the number of Oklahoma counties experiencing wildfires since last Tuesday. The other counties are: Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw, Cotton, Garfield, Garvin, Grady, Haskell, Hughes, Johnston, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, Love, McCurtain, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Oklahoma, Okmulgee, Osage, Payne, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole and Tulsa. (Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management)

Texas Fire Response

The State of Texas continues to build immediate response capability to meet the immediate and future wildfire threat.  Governor Perry directed that the state pre-position all available resources to support local jurisdictions’ requests for assistance.  Currently the State of Texas has 92 aircraft, 88 bulldozers, 32 engines, and approximately 650 State personnel in direct support of wildfire operations.  Texas has requested and received out of state support from Wisconsin, Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, Florida and the US Forest Service.  The Governor additionally directed that actions be taken to ensure that local Volunteer Fire Departments (VFDs) have adequate fuel and maintenance support to enable them to continue their critical mission of initial response.  TXDOT and TFS are providing direct fuel and maintenance support to VFDs to fulfill that directive.  All state capability is prepared for immediate response.

Texas Forest Service is providing overall coordination of wildfire fighting efforts.

The Texas Military Forces have provided helicopters with crews to assist the Texas Forest Service in fighting wild land fires.  The Texas Army National Guard (TXARNG) is providing D7 bulldozers with operators available to assist in firefighting operations.  The Texas Air National Guard is prepared to support requests from the State of Texas.  Today, the Texas Air National Guard will fly a mission to Florida to pick up fire retardant for the Texas Forest Service.

The Department of State Health Services (DSHS) continues providing disaster mental health services in Cross Plains, Callahan County.  A team was deployed to Eastland County on Monday.  Today, actions will be taken to provide teams for Montague and Clay Counties.

The Salvation Army has deployed canteens and is serving meals to victims and responders as needed.  Currently, services are being provided in Eastland, Erath, and Montague Counties.

The American Red Cross (ARC) has three shelters/evacuation centers on standby and two service delivery sites open.

Texas Department of Public Safety (TXDPS) continues to provide traffic control and aerial surveillance assistance.

The Texas Civil Air Patrol (TXCAP), which was tasked to fly fire reconnaissance statewide, has mission ready 26 aircraft.  CAP is conducting daily fire detection sorties as directed by the Air/Ground Coordination Team of the Texas Forest Service.

Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) is providing heavy equipment and personnel.  Electronic highway road information signs have been updated to reflect the current burn bans in place.  TXDOT is supplying fuel to support volunteer fire departments efforts. 

The Federal Aviation Administration has issued a flight restriction for Eastland County.

60 families displaced due to destroyed homes are being provided with hotel accommodations.

The Governor’s Division of Emergency Management and the Texas Forest Service are closely monitoring the situation.  The SOC is at their highest level of activation (Level I - Emergency Conditions) to coordinate response to the increased threat of wildfires in the state.  Coordination conferen?ce calls are being conducted with responding agencies and organizations. (Texas State Operations Center(SOC))

Fire Management Assistance Grants

The most recently approved FMAGS: # 2608 Eufaula Fire in OK. Approved on January 3, 2006 at 5:37 pm EST, population of 2639, with 800 homes threatened. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Activity

At 4:00 am (EST) Tropical Storm Zeta was about 1,325 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The system is moving southwest but is expected to turn to the West later today with little change in intensity over the next 24 hours. TS Zeta poses no threat to land.

There is no tropical activity in the Eastern, Western or Central Pacific Ocean. (Source: USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A strong Earthquake (magnitude 6.7) occurred in the Gulf of California on Wednesday, January 04, 2006 at 03:32 a.m. (EST).  The epicenter is 425 miles southeast of Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Earthquakes of this size sometimes generate local tsunamis that can be destructive along coasts located within a hundred kilometers of the earthquake epicenter, in this case, the Mexican coastal areas along the Gulf of California.

Based on magnitude and historic tsunami information the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a tsunami damaging to California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska. However, some of these areas may experience small sea level changes. (United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)