National Situation Update: Saturday, September 29, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather Summary
South
Easterly winds will create heavy surf along the beaches of the Southeast Coast this weekend from North Carolina to northern Florida. Beach erosion, minor coastal flooding and strong rip currents are all likely. Occasional showers will fall along coastal Florida.
By Monday and Tuesday, showers and gusty winds are likely to expand northward, expanding from Florida's Atlantic beaches up the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible that a subtropical area of low pressure could possibly develop.
Midwest
The Plains had to deal with gusty southerly winds on Friday, and the same can be said for Saturday. A cold front will approach this area later on Saturday, and thunderstorms will erupt by evening from northeast Colorado to South Dakota.
The thunderstorms will turn severe, with damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly a few tornadoes.
More thunderstorms are likely on Sunday from the central plains to the upper Mississippi Valley, as the front stalls out.
West
A series of cold fronts will ride into the northwest from the northern Pacific over the next several days.
As the frontal systems pass, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average, which means 30s and 40s at times in the Cascade, Bitterroot, Teton and Wasatch Mountains, and 50s in the lower elevations from Washington and Oregon to Montana.
Showers and mountain snow will become more common across higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin and the northern and central Rockies.
Snowfall may range from three-to-six inches across parts of Idaho and western Montana Saturday night, with locally higher amounts.
The fronts will kick up gusty winds across most of the West, enhancing the fire danger.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Karen
At 5:00 am EDT, September 29, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located about 590 miles east of the Leeward Islands.
TS Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, and a motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected for the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. TS Karen could weaken to a tropical depression in the next 24 hours, due to strong upper-level winds.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,008 mb (29.77 inches).
Tropical Storm Melissa
At 5:00 am EDT, September 29, 2007, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located about 260 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
TS Melissa is moving toward the west near 3 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours, which will take the depression farther away from the Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1,005 mb (29.68 inches).
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
The area of low pressure located about 390 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to improve in organization.
If current trends continue, a tropical depression could form on Saturday as the system moves toward the west at 10 to 15 mph.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific:
Nothing to report.
Western Pacific:
Nothing to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 1
States Most Affected: Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Friday, September 28, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity: Light with 117 new fires.
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres: 0
2007 acres burned to date: 8,162,690
Weather Discussion: Much cooler temperatures are expected today behind a cold front moving across the Great Basin and into the Rockies. Gusty winds will develop in many places across the West associated with this storm system. Widespread rain and mountain snow will accompany the cold front. The Northeast and Florida will continue to see scattered showers, while the remainder of the East will remain dry.(National Interagency Coordination Center)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 01-Oct-2007 07:58:09 EDT