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National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest: 
A slow front may bring showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest on Wednesday.  These storms are not expected to be severe and will likely stretch from the lower Great Lakes back down through the Ohio Valley to the middle Mississippi Valley.
High temperatures will generally be in the 60s and 70s throughout the region with a few upper 50's across parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula and 80s from Oklahoma to southeast Ohio.

West:
Building high pressure and the retreat of the jet stream will allow temperatures to rise in much of the West after days of record or near record lows.
High temperatures will range from the 50s in parts of the northern Rockies to over 100 in southwest Arizona.

South:
Moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico combined with an approaching cold front may cause rainfall from eastern Texas to the Ohio Valley and from the coastal Carolinas to the Florida Peninsula.
Additionally, moisture from Tropical Depression 13 in the western Gulf is responsible for moisture moving to the north.
High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will be widespread over the region.

Northeast:
Scattered thunderstorms are forecasted across parts of the Northeast on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward.
Some storms, especially across areas of eastern New York state and northern and central New England, may be severe with high winds. 
Highs are forecasted to generally be in the 70s and 80s, north to south, but in the 90s around Boston and in parts of eastern Virginia ahead of the front.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Karen
At 0500 pm EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located about 1285 miles east of the Windward Islands.
Karen is moving toward the west near 14 mph and a turn towards the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.

Tropical Depression Thirteen
At 0500 pm EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located about 205 miles east-southeast of Tampico,  Mexico and 155 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico
The depression is moving toward the south  near 3 mph and a slow erratic motion is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.

Low Pressure Area 1
An area of cloudiness and a few thunderstorms is associated with a broad area of low pressure located near the Virgin Islands in the Lesser Antilles.  This system is poorly organized and upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for development for the next couple of days.

Low Pressure Area 2
Another area of disturbed weather over South Florida, western Cuba and the western Bahamas is primarily associated with a mid to upper level trough.  Slow development in this area is possible over the next day or two and this system could bring locally heavy rains to South Florida and the Keys during this period.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
States Most Affected:  Idaho 
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 25, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 119 new fires.
New large fires:  0
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  4 
2007 acres burned to date: 8,133,904

Weather Discussion:  Dry and warmer weather will prevail across most of the West except for showers over portions of Montana. Rain will stretch from Texas to the Great Lakes with dry weather over the East. Southern Florida will see scattered showers.(National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1729-DR
The President approved a major disaster declaration for the State of Illinois today for severe storms and flooding during the period of August 20-31, 2007.  The declaration is approved for DeKalb, Grundy, Kane, LaSalle, Lake and Will counties for Individual Assistance; DeKalb, Kane and LaSalle counties for Public Assistance; and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)