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National Situation Update: Monday, September 24, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

Midwest:
A cold front moving out from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Monday may cause severe storms from western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota southward into eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas. High temperatures are expected to range from the 50s and 60s in the northern Plains, to the well-above-average 80s and 90s in Michigan and portions of Wisconsin southward into Kentucky and Kansas.

West:
Scattered or isolated showers and storms are forecasted for southeastern Montana, Wyoming, much of Colorado and the Utah mountains as an upper-air trough pushes eastward.  Most of the shower activity is expected near the Wyoming-Colorado border. Some light snow could fall on the higher peaks of the Grand Teton and Big Horn Mountains in Wyoming.

South:
Moisture stemming from the remnants of Tropical Depression 10 is producing rain in parts of the Southeast and is responsible for spawning a few tornadoes in Florida.  Abundant moisture coming out the Gulf of Mexico is causing heavy rain and thunderstorms in portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.  High temperatures throughout the region will be near to above average with highs in the 80s and 90s.

Northeast:
A jet stream bypassing the northeast caused scattered showers and thunderstorms in northern New England and upstate New York.  High temperatures will range from the 60s in northern Maine to the low 90s in far western West Virginia. Most spots will max out in the 70s and 80s.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
At 500 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located about 995 miles west of the Azores. Jerry is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph.  A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today.  On this track, Jerry will remain far from land and pass in between the Azores and southeastern Canada today.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today and Jerry is forecast to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low pressure system by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.

A second area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 200 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.  This system has changed little in organization today but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the next day or so.  The system is expected to bring squally weather to the Windward Islands on Monday and this weather could spread northwestward into the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
The remnant low of Tropical Depression Ivo is centered about 60 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Redevelopment of this system is not expected as it moves slowly eastward.

 The remnant low of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E is nearly stationary and is located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Redevelopment of this system is not anticipated due to strong upper-level winds.
 
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity to report. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Multiple earthquakes continue near the Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia, ranging in magnitude from 5.0 to 5.8.  No tsunami was generated.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:  2
• States Most Affected:  Idaho 
• National Fire Activity as of Sunday, September 23, 2007:
  • Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 80 new fires.
  • New large fires:  0
  • Large fires contained:  0
  • Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  7
  • 2007 acres burned to date: 8,106,075

Weather Discussion:  Showers are expected over Idaho and Montana with dry weather along the west coast. Dry weather will also prevail from the Appalachians to New England.  (National Interagency Coordination Center).

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)