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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 20, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Invest 93L Response Preparation/Actions

A Warning Order was published alerting the FEMA-NRCC Activation Team for possible activation pending further development of Invest 93L.  The NRCC is maintaining contact with FEMA Regions IV and VI and the Hurricane Liaison Team.

Region IV
Federal Actions:
The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Thomasville, GA activated at Level III, 19 September 2007 at 0700 EDT to monitor INVEST 93L.  Hours of operation will be 0700 - 1900 EDT until further notice.

R-IV RNA Team is on alert. The team is currently conducting a communications exercise in the Macon, Georgia area.

R-IV State Response Liaisons have been identified and put on alert status.

Contact with the affected States is being maintained. Staff will continue to participate on all conference calls as required.

The Resources Unit is activated at the R-IV RRCC in Atlanta.

State Status: 
Florida - Level III (Monitoring)
Minor beach erosion and minor flooding has been reported from Nassau County south to Brevard County.
In Duval County minor roadway flooding caused minor damage to two (2) businesses. The businesses remain open.

Alabama - Level IV (Monitoring)
No plans to activate at this time. Prepared to take necessary action as needed.

Mississippi - Level IV (Monitoring)
No plans to activate at this time. Prepared to take necessary action as needed.   (FEMA Region IV)

Region VI
Federal Actions:
FEMA Region VI will activate the Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) at Level 3 commencing at 0800 CDT Thursday, September 20 during normal duty hours.  The Region is in communication with Texas and Louisiana and the National Weather Service.

State Status:
Louisiana -
Began situational awareness calls with their Parishes September 19, 2007 and will continue to conduct daily calls; the Southeast Parishes call at 1:30 pm CDT, and the Southwest Parishes call at 2:30 pm CDT until the storm has passed

The Governors Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness is closely monitoring the weather disturbance located off the East coast of Florida (Invest 93L). Some weather sources indicate that this disturbance could develop into a tropical system as it makes its way across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Due to the probability of this scenario, the Governors Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness hosted the following conference calls today, September 19, 2007: The Southeast Hurricane Task Force at 1:30 pm CDT; and The Southwest Hurricane Task Force at 3:30 pm CDT.  (LA/OHSEP)

Texas - 
Will initiate their twice daily situational awareness calls Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 am CDT and 4:00 pm CDT daily until the storm has passed.   (FEMA Region VI)

Significant National Weather

South: 
A low pressure center (Invest 93L), probably destined to become a tropical or subtropical storm, will develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early today, September 20, 2007.  The low will continue to generate showery weather over Florida and along the Southeast coast as far north as Tidewater Virginia.
A strong influx of Atlantic moisture is expected to develop somewhere along the Carolina coast, well northeast of the low, producing sustained heavy rain. The exact location of this event is not yet determined, but a limited area of the eastern Carolinas can expect several inches of rain. (NWS, Media Sources)

Kivalina, AK Seawall Erosion

USCG District 17, US Army Corps of engineers (USACE), Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, FEMA Alaska Area Office (AAO), and Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC) and the American Red Cross continue to be actively engaged in mitigating and responding to the weather event and potential beach erosion affecting Kivalina.  No significant damage or erosion from current storm conditions has occurred, largely due to the direction of the strong winds blowing from the SE, which has reduced the storm surge impact. 

The Alaska Village Electrical Coop (AVEC) fuel farm remains the most prominent threatened structure due to potential beach erosion.  Remaining beach front has been verified and confirmed at approximately 62 feet; this is a 40% increase from what was reported September 18, 2007. 

Reinforcement of the seawall continues in the area of the AVEC tank farm.  This is being accomplished by removing sections of the seawall from near the lagoon inlet and moving them to protect the facility. (The lagoon entrance has not seen any wave action to date and the removal of the seawall does not pose a risk based on present conditions and short range forecasts.) 

On site Pacific Strike Team (PST) identified numerous portable bladders for use as potential emergency fuel storage.  PST developed courses of action based on three (3) scenarios using either organic or on/near-scene resources: 

Loss of beach - No impact to infrastructure.
Beach erosion causes fuel oil discharge from AVEC Fuel Farm - Village remains occupied.
Village abandoned - total removal of fuel oil.

Kivalina has lost about 100 feet of coastline in the past three years to waves and storm surges.  The seawall is a year-old, cost approximately $3 million to build, and made of cubes of chicken wire filled with 1-cubic-foot sacks filled with sand and gravel.  Construction was complete last year, and the wall was damaged by the very first storm to test it in November of 2006, and again in August 2007. 
Agency responsibilities have been clarified and listed below: 

Erosion Control and Emergency Response Planning

City of Kivalina and Northwest Arctic Borough are the lead agencies and have not requested State assistance
US Army Corps of Engineers:
Provided technical guidance concerning seawall reinforcement
Loaned heavy equipment & funding maintenance contract
Provided sandbags
Developed proposal for construction of 900 ft of 2 cubic yd temporary sandbag structure ($3 million).
Construction of riprap structure around entire southern end of peninsula.  (Plan includes 9 high-risk villages at cost of $14 million).   

Evacuation              

City & Borough primary efforts
RCC Anchorage would assist, if requested by Borough
CGD17 would support RCC Anchorage if requested.

Pollution Prevention

AVEC, Kivalina Store, and School District Marine-Transfer Related (MTR) fuel facilities are required to have USCG Facility Response Plans & Operations Manuals (33 CFR 154)
AVEC is required to have an EPA SPCC plan
All 3 facilities do not require State plans due to tank capacities. 

Pollution Response

USCG Captain of the Port (COTP) is the Federal On Scene Commander (FOSC) for discharges from the coast to 1,000 yards inland, as per Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Alaska Operations Office) and the U.S. Coast Guard Seventeenth Coast Guard District Concerning FOSC Response Boundaries for Oil Discharges and Hazardous Substance Releases (Dec 1994).
Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation would be the System Operation Support Center (SOSC).
AVEC, Kivalina Store and School are potential Responsible Parties.

Kivalina is at the tip of an 8-mile barrier reef located between the Chukchi Sea and Kivalina River. It lies 80 air miles northwest of Kotzebue. The community is located in the Northwest Arctic Bureau. The area encompasses 2 sq. miles of land and 3 sq. miles of water. 

Emergency Services have coastal and air access.  Emergency service is provided by volunteers and a health aide.  Kivalina's economy depends on subsistence practices.  Seal, walrus, whale, salmon, whitefish and caribou are utilized.  The school, City, village council, airlines and local stores provide year-round jobs.  The Red Dog Mine also offers some employment.  The major means of transportation into the community are plane and barge.  A State-owned 3,000' long by 60' wide gravel airstrip serves daily flights from Kotzebue.  Crowley Marine Services barges goods from Kotzebue during July and August. Small boats, ATVs and snow machines are used for local travel.   (FEMA Region X)

Butler II Fire - San Bernardino County

Per the OES Fire Duty Officer (FDO) and the OES Southern Duty Officer (SDO), the fire is at 14,039 acres, and is 86% contained on September 19, 2007.  The incident is being managed by a Type I Incident Management Team and is in Unified Command with San Bernardino County Fire, and San Bernardino County Sheriff. 

With the reduced threat to the Lucerne Valley and Apple Valley, CAL-FIRE is no longer in unified command.  Demobilization of resources began September 18, 2007 and will continue as progress continues in containment objectives. 

Mandatory evacuation orders remain in effect for the Fawnskin area from Big Bear Dam to Discovery Center.  All precautionary voluntary evacuations orders have been lifted. 

The ARC continues to provide a shelter at Pine Summit Christian School; there are currently 24 evacuee occupants.  The shelter remains open at the Lucerne Valley Senior Center. 

Hwy 18 between Running Springs and Big Bear Dam remains closed. 

The Town of Apple Valley de-activated their EOC at 8:30 am PDT, September 18, 2007. 

Big Bears EOC remains activated at a Level 1 until further notice. 

The San Bernardino County EOC demobilized staff on September 18, 2007 in anticipation of having their Duty Officer handle the activation overnight with Level 1 staffing September 19, 2007. 

Due to the incoming storm, the County's Flood Action Task Force (FAST) met September 18, 2007 to map out and implement strategies particularly for the burn areas. The NWS participated and made a video presentation on the incoming storm and its progress.

On September 18, 2007, flyers were developed in the EOC for door-to-door distribution in the burn area, which included safety tips, flood protection, and sandbag information.    (FEMA MOC/BOTHELL, CA OES)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure system is moving westward near 10 mph across central Florida.  Satellite images and radar observations indicate that the associated shower activity is limited and disorganized at this time.  However the environment is gradually becoming favorable for a subtropical or a tropical cyclone to form as the system moves westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today, September 20, 2007. 

Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. 

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles to the north of Puerto Rico is primarily associated with the remnants of Ingrid. Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development of this system..

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane IVO
Hurricane Ivo is located about 470 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico  Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest at 6 mph with an estimated minimum central pressure 987 MB (29.15 inches).  Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph with gusts to 92 mph.  The forward motion has slowed as Ivo makes its way around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  A slow northward motion is anticipated for the next 36 hours or so.  The hurricane is currently in a favorable environment for additional strengthening with warm waters and relatively weak shear.

Tropical Depression 13E
There are only a few remaining cells of deep convection associated with the depression.  The highest believable wind vectors were near 35 mph so the initial intensity is maintained at 35 mph. The depression is situated in an environment of modest easterly shear.  Although some of the numerical guidance indicates that the system will strengthen a little as it loops southward toward slightly warmer waters the current trend of the cloud pattern suggests weakening. 

As a compromise the official forecast maintains the depression at its current strength for about 24 hours before showing weakening. However if the system does not regenerate significant deep convection by later today, September 20, 2007 the tropical cyclone could dissipate much sooner than shown by this forecast.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within the next 12 to 24 hours. The storm is currently located about 40 nm west of Yap.  Available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time.  The system is moving north-northwestward at 10 mph.  Banding is developing in the northwest quadrant and beginning to wrap toward the Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC).  Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 21 to 25 mph. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb (29.68 inches).  The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to good.   (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake occurred at 7:22 AM EDT on Wednesday, September 19, 2007. The magnitude 4.6 event occurred 123 miles east from Anchorage, Alaska, at a depth of 16.81 miles. There were no reports of any injuries or damages and there was no Tsunami generated.

An earthquake occurred at 7:57 AM EDT on Wednesday, September 19, 2007. The magnitude 5.2 event occurred 119 miles south southeast of Adak, Alaska, at a depth of 11.1 miles. There were no reports of any injuries or damages and there was no Tsunami generated.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho 
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 19, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 111 new fires.
New large fires:  2
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  12
2007 acres burned to date: 8,064,011

Weather Discussion:  An upper low dropping southward through California will bring windy weather to portions of southern California and the Great Basin.  Showers are expected over northern California, western Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)