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National Situation Update: Monday, September 17, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over much of the interior of the region, with the greatest concentration likely in southwest Colorado.  Isolated showers are expected in the Cascades and southwest Oregon.  Gusty winds are expected over the higher terrain of the Southwest.  High temperatures will be near to slightly below average, ranging from the 50s in the higher reaches of the northern and central Rockies to a little over 100 degrees in southwest Arizona.

Midwest:
Most of the Midwest and Great Plains are forecast to be dry, but a storm center moving along the Canadian border is expected to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from Minnesota and Wisconsin southwestward across eastern South Dakota and northern Nebraska.  Some of the storms from Minnesota into northeastern Nebraska could turn severe by late day or evening and possibly create isolated tornadoes.  Gusty southwest winds will prevail from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s in northeastern Minnesota to the 90s in most of Kansas.  Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected elsewhere in the region.

South:
Most of the region is forecast to be sunny and dry with seasonable temperatures.  Isolated showers or storms may pop up in eastern North Carolina and along the Gulf Coast.  Scattered showers and storms are likely along the Georgia coast, over the Florida Peninsula, and in west and south Texas.  High temperatures will mostly be in the 80s and 90s, although the 70s are likely in much of North Carolina, parts of South Carolina, far northeast Tennessee, and portions of northern Georgia.

Northeast:
Frost and freeze advisories are in effect from northern Pennsylvania into New York and much of New England.  Sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are forecast during the afternoon throughout the region.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Coast Guard Update - Potential Major Oil Fuel Discharge - Kivalina, Alaska

The latest USCG alert regarding Kivalina, AK states that the transfer of diesel heating fuel from the  Alaska Village Electrical Cooperative (AVEC) fuel storage tanks to additional tanks in the village is not possible due to the shortage of approximately 600 feet of transfer hose. The next storm is expected Monday night.  Sector Anchorage and Pacific Strike Team (PST) personnel conducted an on-scene assessment of Kivalina, and assess that Moderate beach loss has occurred as a result of the storm surge on Thursday. Severe weather will continue to impact the Kivalina area for the next 96 hours. The next storm front is estimated to arrive between Monday night and Tuesday evening.  A History Channel crew is in Kivalina for the filming of the "TOUGHER IN ALASKA" documentary. (USCG, DHS NICC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) - 2730 was approved on Sunday, September 16, 2007, for the Country Club Fire in Helena, MT. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Depression Ingrid
At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Ingrid was located about 120 miles east-northeast of Antigua.  Satellite imagery indicates tha Ingrid is dissipating.  Ingrid is moving toward the west near 9 mph.  The remnants of Ingrid are expected to move slowly to the west-northwest over the next day or so.  Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with an area of low pressure located about 550 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California. While upper-level winds are
currently not favorable for significant development of this system, they could become a little more favorable during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph.

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to show signs of organization. Conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Multiple earthquakes continue near the Island of Sumatra, Indonesia, ranging in magnitude from 5.3 to 5.7.  There have been no additional reports of damage.  No tsunami was generated. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Texas:  Joint Individual Assistance (IA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) for Hurricane Humberto are scheduled to begin Monday, September 17, 2007, in Jefferson, Galveston, and Orange Counties.  Joint Public Assistance (PA) PDAs will begin in Orange County on Monday, September 17, with additional counties expected to be added.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, September 16, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 97 new fires.
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  3
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  18
2007 acres burned to date: 7,943,050

California Wildfires:
Firefighters battled two raging wildfires in San Bernardino and San Diego counties that forced nearly 2,000 people from their homes.  The larger of the two blazes, the Butler Two Fire, burned approximately 15,433 acres of dense, dry bush in the San Bernardino National Forest and was 12 percent contained.  About 340 residents were ordered to leave the Fawnskin area and another 1,200 voluntarily left their homes.  Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency for San Bernardino County on Saturday, clearing the way for state government assistance. Evacuation centers were set up to for displaced residents.  In eastern San Diego County, a wildfire erupted Saturday, northeast of Julian, leading to the temporary evacuation of about 400 residents.

Weather Discussion:  Thunderstorms, some with limited moisture, are expected over portions of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.  Gusty winds are on tap over the southern California mountains and deserts, southern Great Basin, and over portions of Montana and Wyoming.  Windy conditions are expected east of the Cascades.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity(FEMA HQ)