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National Situation Update: Friday, September 14, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West: A trough will produce some precipitation along the Washington, Oregon and Northern California coasts.  A second trough and the tail end of the cold front extending from a low over the Texas panhandle will produce precipitation in the central Rockies.  Temperatures will range from the 60s in eastern Wyoming and Colorado to over 100 in the Desert Southwest.

Midwest: A cold air mass moving out of Canada will produce below average temperatures in the central Plains, northern Mississippi Valley, and northern Wisconsin.  While no accumulations are expected, northern Minnesota may see the first snowflakes of the season.  Temperatures will drop as low as the 20s in the northern Plains this morning.

South: Tropical Depression Humberto will continue to weaken as it tracks northeast and then east today. Its main impact will be the rainfall (1-2 inches) and flooding as the moisture interacts with the stationary front over the Carolinas. Check the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html ) for the latest information Flood watches are in effect for parts of central and northern Mississippi. Flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Vermilion River in Louisiana.  These rains will at least allow for some relief across drought stricken areas of the southeast.

Northeast: A cold front will move into the region later today. Look for showers and thunderstorms over the western half of New York and Pennsylvania through the evening. A few severe thunderstorms are forecast around Lakes Erie and Ontario later in the day. Temperatures will be on the decline through the weekend.(NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Ingrid

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Ingrid was located near latitude 15.1 north, longitude 49.2 west or about 805 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Ingrid is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend ward up to 50 miles from the center.

Based on the current warning the system will be approximately 400 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico at 2:00 am EDT on Wednesday 19 September.  

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical Storm Ingrid is discussed above, elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather located about 675 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico remains poorly organized.  Any development with this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves
generally westward.
Shower and thunderstorm activity located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco has decreased this evening.  Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves to
the west or west-northwest.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
.
Central Pacific:
No activity to report.

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity affecting United States territories.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Friday, September 14, 2007 at 2:03 am EDT an earthquake measuring 4.0 struck about 5 miles south of Spanish town, Virgin Gorda, British Virgin Islands.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and there was no tsunami generated

The swarm of earthquakes continues near the island of Sumatra, Indonesia ranging in magnitude from 4.2 to 6.2.  There have been media reports of damage, but no tsunami was generated..  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana (10), Idaho (5).
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 13, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 189 new fires.
New large fires:  4
Large fires contained:  5
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  18
2007 acres burned to date: 7,539,360

Weather Discussion:  Dry and windy conditions will prevail over the Sierra and Western Great Basin today.  Isolated thunderstorms with limited moisture will developed over portions of northern California and Nevada with the approach of a storm system from the west.  Elsewhere, windy conditions will persist in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains states.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

North Dakota:  FEMA-1726-DR-ND was amended effective September 13, 2007 adding Grand Forks  county for Individual Assistance.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)