• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across most of the Deep South and Gulf Coast.  This is due to a front slowly moving southward into the region and combining with moisture from a tropical disturbance over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Locally heavy rain is likely in portions of southeast Texas for at least the next couple of days.  Minor flooding will be possible in areas south of Interstate 10. 
 
High temperatures across the South will be mostly in the 80s.  Central and south Florida should reach the 90s, while parts of west Texas are expected to be in the 70s.

Midwest
Portions of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin should experience frost and freezing temperatures early this morning.

High temperatures are expected to range from the 50s in northeast Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and far northern Michigan, to the 80s in western South Dakota, western Nebraska, and most of Kansas.

Northeast
The majority of the Northeast is forecast to be dry.  A few isolated showers over Upstate New York and northern New England are possible.

High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in New England to the 80s around the Chesapeake Bay.

West
A cold front will cross the Canadian border into parts of Montana and Wyoming today bringing gusty northerly winds and isolated showers. This front may bring a small amount of snow to the highest elevations of western Montana and Wyoming by Thursday. A few thunderstorms are expected across the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico.

Highs should range from the 40s in northern Montana to over 110 in extreme southeast California and southwest Arizona.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated in association with the broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands.  Conditions appear favorable for this system to develop into a Tropical Depression within the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward at five to ten mph. 

2. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has diminished this evening.  However, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system as it drifts slowly west-northwestward over the next day or two. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur as it drifts northwestward or northward during the next day or two.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical storm activity is not expected to impact U.S. interests during the next 48 hours.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 4.4 earthquake (originally reported as a magnitude 4.5) occurred at 7:46 p.m. EDT on September 11, 2007, in southern Alaska, 26 miles south-southwest of Skwentna, Alaska.  The reported depth was 62.5 miles.  There have been no reports of injury or damage, and no tsunami warning has been issued.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana (10), Idaho (5).
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 11, 2007:

Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 120 new fires.
New large fires:  3
Large fires contained:  5
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  25
2007 acres burned to date:  7,407,669

Moonlight Fire - Located eight miles northeast of Greenville, California, in the Plumas National Forest.  The Moonlight Fire is 64,271 acres in size and is 41% contained.  A Type 1 IMT is assigned. 

Weather Discussion:  Warmer and drier conditions are predicted for the Great Basin and eastern portions of Washington and Oregon. Cooler conditions as well as higher relative humidity are expected today with a return to onshore flow along the West Coast. The Southeast will see shower and thunderstorm activity. (National Interagency Coordination Center,)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Oklahoma - FEMA-DR-1712 Amendment seven adds:  five counties for Public Assistance (PA) Custer, Hughes, Jefferson, McIntosh, and Pawnee; one county for PA that had already been designated for Individual Assistance (IA) Payne County, and; three counties for PA Kiowa, Oklahoma, and Pottawatomie which had already been designated for IA and Emergency Protective Measures, and Category B, limited to Direct Federal Assistance under the PA program.

Ohio - FEMA-DR-1720 Amendment three adds seven counties for PA that had already been designated for IA; these are Allen, Crawford, Hancock, Hardin, Putnam, Richland, and Wyandot.  PA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) for these counties are ongoing.
Preliminary Damage Assessments in Illinois have been completed.  IA PDAs began in Illinois on September 4, 2007.  PA PDAs began on September 10, 2007, and are continuing.  (FEMA Regions, HQ)