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National Situation Update: Monday, September 10, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

South
Scattered rain and thunderstorms will extend across the southern U.S. today in advance of a cold front. Rain is expected to reach from northern Texas and Oklahoma into Tennessee and far western North Carolina. There will also be scattered showers and storms over the Florida Peninsula.

High temperatures will range from the upper 60s in the Oklahoma Panhandle to the 90s from southern Texas eastward through the Carolinas and Florida. 

Midwest
An upper-air disturbance will spread showers from Nebraska and Kansas through Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Michigan.  There may be a few showers in the Ohio Valley and far northern Minnesota. High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in the Upper Midwest and most of the Plains to the 80s in portions of the lower Midwest.
 
Northeast
There will be showers and thunderstorms from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward through eastern New York and New England.  Scattered or isolated storms and showers are possible from West Virginia eastward to the Delmarva Peninsula. Tropical Storm Gabrielle will move out to sea well south of Long Island. Temperature highs will range from the upper 50s in far northern Maine to the 90s in southeast Virginia.
 
West
Unseasonably hot and dry conditions will affect areas west of the Cascades tomorrow due to offshore winds. There will be isolated showers over Colorado and eastern New Mexico. High temperatures in western Oregon to the coast will be in the 80s and 90s.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 50s in parts of the Colorado and Wyoming Rockies to over 110 in southwest Arizona.  Lows in the 20s and 30s will result in frost from central Oregon to the northern Rockies.

NOAA Reports La Niña is Developing

Scientists with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in last Thursday's release of its monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, say that La Niña is on its way.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, as compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, usually occurring every three years.

A spokesman for the Climate Prediction Center indicated that while they can't officially call it a La Niña yet, they expect that the pattern will continue to develop during the next three months, meeting the NOAA definition for a La Niña event later this year. Nearly all operational dynamical models, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System and many of the statistical models also favor a La Niña event.

With La Niña developing, seasonal forecasters expect wetter-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier-than-normal conditions in the already drought-stricken southwestern U.S. this fall.  Some areas experience drought during El Niño (La Niña), and this dryness can contribute to large-scale uncontrolled wildfires. (NOAA)

Wildland Fire Outlook - September through December 2007

Significant fire potential in September is expected to be higher than normal in California, Idaho, Montana, the northern Great Lakes and much of the Southeast. Below normal fire potential is forecast for portions of Texas, the Pacific Northwest coast and southern Nevada. The main factors influencing fire potential this outlook period are:

• Warmer and drier than normal weather should persist in the West with fire potential remaining higher than average in California, Idaho and Montana. Fire potential will decrease as usual in the fall, but is expected to remain high in southern California.
  
• A wet summer has resulted in an abundant growth of fine fuels in portions of the Great Plains.  This area will see above normal fire potential in the fall.
  
• Continued lack of precipitation and persisting drought will cause fire potential to be elevated in the northern Great Lakes during September, even though thunderstorms produced heavy rains just to the south.
  
• An ongoing drought and a very hot, dry summer have left portions of the Southeast primed for an active fall fire season. Fire season normally begins in late October, but is expected to begin earlier than normal this year.(National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression Gabrielle

At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Depression Gabrielle was located about 140 miles north-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
and about 375 miles southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts.

As of 11:00 p.m. EDT September 9, 2007 all watches and warnings were discontinued.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph.

The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph and a turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.  On this track, the storm will be moving away from the East Coast of the United States today.

As of  7:00 p.m. September 9, 2007, the North Carolina State EOC resumed normal operations.  The Region IV representative in the SEOC was released.  The Region IV RRCC returned to normal operations.

Local Forecast of Tropical Depression Gabrielle Impact
Flooding of low lying areas continues in extreme southern Craven County and central and eastern Carteret County, but is expected to improve now that the rainfall has stopped.  Portions of Highway 12 near Rodanthe, North Carolina, on Hatteras Island, and portions near Ocracoke, North Carolina, on Ocracoke Island, had water rises of close to three feet. 

Gusty winds will continue over the Outer Banks and northern coastal sections into the early morning hours today and then will decrease throughout the day. 

Swells from Gabrielle combining with high astronomical tides will continue to produce dangerous rip currents across area beaches.  Waves near five feet are expected along the Outer Banks with rough surf and minor beach erosion expected to diminish during the day today.

Other Atlantic Activity
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 875 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  This system has become a little better organized and it has the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the next couple of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 15 mph. 

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm Danas
Tropical Storm (TS) 11w (Danas) located approximately 483 miles east-southeast of Misawa, Japan, is tracking north-northeast at 12 knots.  Tropical storm activity is not expected to impact US interests during the next 48 hours.
(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred near the western shore of Columbia, 95 miles north-northeast of Tumaco, Columbia, on September 9, 2007, at 9:49 p.m. EDT at a reported depth of 6.2 miles.  The Pacific and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers issued Information Statements indicating that a tsunami was not expected in Hawaii or along the West, British Columbia or Alaska coasts.  There have been no immediate reports of damage or injury associated with the earthquake.

A magnitude 4.8 earthquake occurred in the Gulf of California, 66 miles northeast of La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico on September 9, 2007, at 8:20 p.m. EDT.  Reported depth was 6.2 miles.  There have been no reports of damage or injury.   (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  3
States Most Affected:  Montana (9), Idaho (9).
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, September 9, 2007:
Initial Attack Activity:  Light with 140 new fires.
New large fires:  2 
Large fires contained:  1
Uncontained large fires and complexes over 500 acres:  27
2007 acres burned to date:  7,318,929
Weather Discussion:  A warm, dry offshore flow is expected over northern California and western Oregon through Monday.  Winds will also increase over portions of the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountains with a weak low pressure system moving down from the north.  Thunderstorms are possible along the Rockies and in the mountains of southern California.  The Southeast will see a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.  (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)