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National Situation Update: Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Felix Discussion

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Felix has again strengthened early this morning.  The minimum central pressure has fallen to 939 mb.  Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph with higher gusts.  The satellite presentation has been steadily becoming more impressive.  Felix could reach Category Five status at any time prior to landfall.

Felix continues generally westward but appears to be slowing down a little.  The eye is only about three hours from making landfall along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, likely just south of the border with Honduras.  The ridge to the north of Felix should remain in place during the next three days, so a continued general westward motion is forecast with a slow Bend to the right.

Given that this relatively small hurricane will be interacting with the rugged terrain of Central America during the next couple of days, rapid weakening is forecast after the center crosses the coast, and dissipation is forecast after 72 hours. 

It is important to emphasize that this will not be just a coastal event.  Very heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides could occur well inland and many hours or days after this morning's landfall.

The Hurrevac model as of 5:00 a.m. EDT, given the present speed and direction indicates the closest approach to the Texas mainland is Cameron County, Texas on Friday, September 7, 2007, at 2:00 a.m. EDT, 685 miles east south-east from the eye of Felix.  Tropical force winds extend out 115 miles.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has lowered their five-day rainfall estimates valid from Tuesday through Sunday, September 9, 2007, to two-three inches of rain for some border counties in Texas.  Some inland counties of Texas will be experiencing higher rainfall amounts of three-four inches during the same period due to other weather systems.

National Weather Summary

South
The Southeast is expected to be warmer and drier, while areas west of the Mississippi River should see more showers and thunderstorms.  Highs will reach the 90s from Virginia and Kentucky down through Alabama, Georgia and Florida.  Areas west of the Mississippi River are expected to be in the 80s.

Northeast
The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are expected to be rain free.  Highs will range from the 60s over northern sections of New York and New England to near 90 around the Chesapeake Bay.

Midwest
Most of the Midwest is expected to be warm and dry, with the exception of a few showers across the northern Great Lake and scattered thunderstorms in southern Missouri and Kansas.  Highs are forecast to range from the 60s in parts of far northern Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, to the 80s and 90s in most of the Midwest and Great Plains.

West
Showers and cooler temperatures are forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest from the Cascades westward.  Isolated showers and storms are expected from Montana southward into the higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico.  Highs will range from the 60s in higher mountain and many coastal locations to over 110 in and near the lower Colorado River Valley. (NOAA, media sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG FEMA-2727-FM-OR was approved on September 3, 2007, for the George Washington Fire, located in Deschutes County, Oregon.  The fire was started by lightning on August 31, 2007, and involves 6,000 acres.  The fire is threatening the town of Sisters and the Black Butte Ranch.  There are at least 10 commerical buildings, five miles of roads (including Routes 20/126 and 242), a communications site, and a resort threatened.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for 1,200 residences.  The fire is five percent contained.  (FEMA HQ)   

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Hurricane Felix
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Felix was located
about 65 miles southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/ Honduras border.

A continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

On this track, the center of Felix is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased and are near 155 mph, with higher gusts.  Felix is an extremely dangerous Category Four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Additional slight strengthening is possible while the hurricane remains over water.  Felix could regain Category Five status just prior to crossing the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/ Nicaragua border; and for Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Honduras west of Limon, the Caribbean coast of Guatamala, and the entire coast of Belize.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Isla de Providencia, for Nicaragua from south of Puerto Cabezas to Prinzapolka, and for Honduras from west of Limon to the Honduras/Guatemala border, including Islas de la Bahia.

Other Tropical Activity - Atlantic
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located roughly 300 miles east of the northeast Florida coast.  This system has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves slowly eastward.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Henriette
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located about 115 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Henriette is moving toward the north-northwest near eight mph.  A continued north-northwest motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. 

On this track, the center of Henriette is expected to be near or over the southern Baja Peninsula by this afternoon.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts.  Henriette is now a Category One hurricane.  Little change in strength is forecast prior to landfall over the southern Baja Peninsula.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. 

The Government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning for the southern Baja Peninsula from Loreto southward on the east coast, and from Bahia Magdalena southward on the west coast, including Cabo San Lucas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Bahia Magdalena northward to Puerto San Andresito, for the Baja Peninsula from Loreto northward to Mulege on the east coast, and for the coast of mainland Mexico from Altata northward to Guaymas.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdalena northward to Puerto San Andresito on the west coast.

Heavy rain (and potentially flash flooding) as a result of Henriette is forecast across much of Arizona and New Mexico into Colorado from September 6-9.
 
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity impacting US interests is not expected during the next 48 hours.  ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Illinois:  Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs will begin on September 4, 2007; and Public Assistance (PA) PDAs will begin on or about September 9, 2007 for Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Lake, LaSalle, and McHenry Counties.  Region I providing staffing support for the IA PDAs.

Indiana:  IA PDA for Lake County is scheduled to begin September 5, 2007.

Ohio:  PA PDAs for Allen, Crawford, Hancock, Hardin, Putnam, Richland, and Wyandot Counties will begin on September 4, 2007.  Region II is assisting. (FEMA Regions, FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  4
States Most Affected:  Montana (14), Idaho (10).
National Fire Activity as of Monday, September 3, 2007:

• Initial Attack Activity:  Moderate with 208 new fires.
• New large fires:  4
• Large fires contained:  5
• Uncontained large fires:  34
• 2007 acres burned to date:  7,029,971

North Incident:   The North Incident fire started on September 2, 2007, in the Angeles National Forest, near Palmdale, California and is currently moving into Los Angeles County fire jurisdiction due to afternoon thunder cell activity that caused it to re-energize on Monday.  It is currently 700 acres in size and 20 percent contained.  Evacuations are in progress along Soledad Canyon and Ravenna Roads, with the potential for additional evacuations if the fire moves up the canyon near a mobile home park housing thousands of residents. 

Sawmill Complex Fire (four fires):   A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  The fire is located 22 miles southeast of Missoula, Montana, and is currently 58,033 acres in size and 22 percent contained.  Evacuations remain in effect; 170 primary structures, two commercial, and 240 outbuildings are threatened.

Jocko Lakes Fire:   A Type 1 IMT is assigned.  The fire is located eight miles west of Seeley Lake, Montana, and is currently 35,386 acres in size and 57 percent contained.  One primary structure and seven outbuildings have been destroyed; an additional 1,500 primary, 100 commercial, and 1,500 outbuildings remain threatened.

Chippy Creek Fire:   A Type 2 IMT is assigned.  The fire is located 24 miles north of Thompson Falls, Montana, and is currently 99,090 acres in size and 87 percent contained.  One primary and outbuilding have been destroyed; and 350 structures are threatened. 

Ahorn Fire:   A FUMT is assigned.  The fire is located 30 miles west of Augusta, Montana, and is currently 49,203 acres in size and 20 percent contained.  No evacuations have been identified; 162 primary structures are threatened.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Incident Information System)

Weather Discussion:  Hot, dry, and windy weather conditions are predicted for Idaho, Montana, northeast California, western Nevada, and eastern Oregon.  Southern California is expected to have thunderstorms.  The southeastern states will be mostly dry with some thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast states. (National Interagency Coordination Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)