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National Situation Update: Saturday, June 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

West:  A cold front extending from Lake Superior to northern Nevada will produce precipitation over Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. Thunderstorms are forecast for the northern Rockies and northern high Plains with severe thunderstorms expected in Montana, Wyoming and South Dakota. Ahead of the front highs will be 5 to 15 degrees above average and the Desert Southwest will reach 120.

Midwest:  The cold front extending from Lake Superior to northern Nevada will produce scattered thunderstorms from the northern Plains to northern Michigan.  Areas south of the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will see mostly sunny skies with high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. On Sunday, the cold front will move into the Dakotas and northwest Nebraska producing severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes over the Plains during the afternoon and evening.

South:  Low pressure aloft will produce thunderstorms and locally heavy rain from southern Oklahoma, Texas, southern Arkansas and Louisiana.  A trough of low pressure over the northwest Caribbean may trigger several inches of rain across the Keys, Everglades and Miami. Much of the region will see less thunderstorm activity and warmer temperatures this weekend as low pressure in the western Atlantic begins to move eastward. There may be a few thunderstorms across the Carolinas.

Northeast:  Precipitation will be confined to a few isolated thunderstorms, but thunderstorms may become more prevalent tomorrow from Maine to Virginia.  Temperatures across the region will be increasing as the low pressure in the western Atlantic moves east and reduces the northeast wind. High temperatures by tomorrow will range from the upper 70s in Maine to 90s in Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida and the northern Bahamas are associated with a trough of low pressure.  There are no signs of organization at this time and any development should be slow to occur.  Even if no development occurs locally heavy rains are possible across portions of southern Florida during the next day or two as the system moves slowly northward.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No significant activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Friday, June 15, 2007 at 9:18 pm EDT an earthquake measuring 5.7 struck about 1000 miles south southeast of Manila, Philippines.  At a depth of 28.7 miles. There were no reports of damage or injuries and there was no tsunami generated.

No significant activity within the United States or it territories during the last 24 hours.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  2
States Most Affected: Georgia and Florida
National Fire Activity as of June 15, 2007 at 10:00 a.m. EDT:

Initial attack activity: Light (135 new fires burning 1,624 acres)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 4
The National Preparedness Level remains at 2, while the Southern Area is at Level 3.
Nationally, there are two Type 1 and one Type 2 IMTs committed.

Predictive Services Discussion: Much of the West will be hot and dry today, along with dry, gusty winds over the Sierras and Great Basin. Interior Alaska can expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms will continue today over much of the Southeast.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, Joint Information Center FL/GA), media)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1699-DR-KS is amended effective June 15, 2007 to include Osage County for Individual Assistance.   (FEMA HQ)