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National Situation Update: Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Storms Continue to Threaten the Midwest

Midwest:
Thunderstorms will continue to threaten the Northern Plains Tuesday in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Kansas. The storms may include damaging winds, drenching rain, large hail, and a possibility of tornadoes.

The Red River and the upper Missouri River valleys are at increased risk for flooding due to new rainfall. 

The storms will move slowly eastward during the next few days, dropping several inches of rainfall in areas that are already saturated from previous storms. 

West:
Scattered showers, thunderstorms, and snow in the higher elevations are expected Tuesday in the Great Basin, with heaviest precipitation forecast for Montana.

Highs will range from the 30s in Montana to the 90s in southern California and the desert southwest.

South:
There is a possibility of isolated severe storms in western Oklahoma and central Texas, otherwise the region will enjoy warm temperatures and sunny weather.

High temperatures will continue in the 70s-80s for most of the South on Tuesday. 

Unusually low humidity, lack of precipitation, and the continuance of the severe Southeast drought continues to create an environment of fire danger, particularly in southern Georgia and northern Florida.

Northeast:
Except for isolated showers, the Northeast region is expected to experience warm and dry weather for the next several days. Highs in the region on Tuesday will be in the 50s-80s.

Frost and freeze advisories for Tuesday morning have been issued for several parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and New England.(NWS, Media Sources)

Florida/Georgia Wildfires Update

The Southwest Incident Management Team has taken over management of the Big Turnaround Complex fire (110,767-acre complex fire) and the Bugaboo Scrub Fire (160,727-acre complex fire) in Ware and Charlton Counties (Georgia). The combined fire, now referred to as the Big Turnaround Complex fire (279,143-acre fire) is 45% contained. The fire is 10 miles southeast of Waycross, Gorgia. Folkston and other surrounding communities remain threatened.

Paterson Fire (Florida): 1,900 acres burned and is 60% contained. Estimated containment date is May 22. 

Florida Bugaboo Fire (Florida): The 121,401-acre fire in Baker and Columbia Counties is 90% contained.  All evacuations for the Florida portion of the Bugaboo Fire have now been lifted. Numerous structures in several communities remain threatened.

Dairy Road Fire (Florida): The 14,626 acre fire in Bradford County is 90% contained. Estimated containment date is May 22.

Deland Complex (Florida): The Deland Complex, composed of three fires, has burned 10,093 acres and is 85% contained. Estimated containment date is May 22.

BICY Complex (five fires - Florida): The fires are located in the Big Cypress National Preserve near Sunniland, FL in Collier County. Fires have burned 22,000 acres and are 55% contained.

Sweat Farm Road (Georgia):  The 61,112-acre fire in Ware/Charlton Counties had 376 firefighters assigned to the fire on May 21, 2007. Structures, a state forest and refuge remain threatened.

Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Georgia): The 5,585-acre fire in Clinch County is 55% contained. The fire is five miles east of Fargo and threatens numerous structures.  (National Interagency Fire Center, Georgia Forestry Commission)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: Typhoon 02W (Yutu), located approximately 86 miles east-northeast of Iwo Jima, is a rapidly weakening system that has clearly started undergoing extra-tropical transition. Based on the current forecast 02W poses no threat to U.S. interests. This will be the last advisory issued for Typhoon Yutu.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Initial attack activity Sunday was light with 82 new wildfires reported. There was one (1) new large wildfire. One (1) large fire was contained and firefighters continued fighting 17 uncontained large fires.

There are currently three (3) Type 1 Incident Management Teams (IMTs) committed and two (2) Type 2 IMTs committed.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center predicts a Critical Fire Weather Area for southern Georgia and central and eastern Florida on Tuesday. Primary conditions in the GA and FL areas will be affected by minimum relative humidity values below 35 percent, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and long term drought effects.   (National Interagency Fire Center, NOAA/Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Governor of Iowa has requested a major disaster declaration for the state, for damages caused by a severe weather system that produced high winds, heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, flooding, and tornadoes beginning on May 5, 2007 and continuing. The Governor has requested Individual Assistance for 11 counties, Public Assistance for 18 counties, including direct Federal assistance, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

FEMA-DR-1697-TX was amended on May 21 (amendment number 2) to include Atascosa County for Individual Assistance.   (FEMA HQ)