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National Situation Update: Thursday, May 17, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West: Most of the west will be dry with above average temperatures.  Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Four Corners area northward into western Montana.  A stationary front will produce locally heavy rain and thunderstorms in New Mexico and Colorado.  Highs are forecast to range from the 50s in the New Mexico and Colorado mountains to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest: Most of the region will be under high pressure.  There will be a few showers and thunderstorms over southern Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and eastern Kentucky.  Isolated thunderstorms will develop in west Texas and along the Rio Grande Valley with the potential for heavy precipitation and localized flooding.  High temperatures will range from the upper 50s in Michigan to the 80s in Nebraska.

South: With yesterdays cold front offshore most of the region will be dry.  A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Florida to Virginia.  Unfortunately there will not be enough precipitation to affect the fires in Georgia or Florida. High temperatures will range from the 60s in Texas to the 80s in Georgia.

Northeast: With yesterdays cold front offshore precipitation will be limited to scattered light showers and thunderstorms.  High temperatures will range from the 40s in northern New England to the 70s in Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)

Midwestern Flooding

Major flooding is occurring and is expected to continue along the James River in South Dakota including Columbia, Stratford and Ashton. At 11 am CDT yesterday the stage was 17.5 feet (flood stage is 14.0 feet).

A flood warning continues until Friday evening for the Missouri River in Missouri affecting Jefferson City, Chamois, Gasconade, Hermann, Washington and St. Charles (NOAA's National Weather Service River Forecast Office)

Florida/Georgia Wildfires

Sweat Farm/ Big Turnaround Fire
Pines that were scorched several weeks ago continue to cast off dry needles. Those needles, combined with dried out underbrush, have created fuels with re-burn potential within the fire lines. Due to this potential, firefighters continue to keep a weather eye out for possible re-burns.
Firefighters continue building and improving control lines along the western swamp edge break and perimeter roads. Helicopters and ground crews are continuing to monitor and mop-up the northern boundary. Fire crews will continue to improve lines and patrol along the eastern boundary, south of the refuge headquarters.

Bugaboo Scrub Fire (Ware County/Charlton County Areas):
Crews are burning out fuels around the area adjacent to Stephen C. Foster State Park and the operation is going well.  Burnout is continuing slowly around the Moccasin Creek area, near the southeast corner of the fire within the Okefenokee Swamp, but the operation is producing lots of smoke.  

Florida Bugaboo Wildfire:
The fire perimeter is approximately 120 miles long, with 50 percent contained, meaning that the fire has burned to the man-made containment lines along some 60 miles.  Fire officials want the fire to burn up to the control lines to ensure that it will not flare up in the future. (SACC, FEMA Region IV)

New Jersey Wildfire

The fire, believed to have been sparked when a National Guard jet dropped a flare during a training exercise yesterday afternoon, blackened 19,000 acres of forest in little more than 24 hours.

Outgunned in their battle against the state's biggest wildfire in 12 years, firefighters this evening credited a "blessing" from above - a steady, soaking downpour - with helping them contain the blaze before it could spread beyond the forests of southern New Jersey into heavily populated suburbs. More than a half-inch of rain fell across the Pinelands. The fires are about 70% contained and have not spread beyond the initial report of an area of 19,000 acres. (Region II, local news media)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report.

Western Pacific: At 2:00 am EDT May 17, Tropical Storm (TS) 02W was located approximately 92 miles east-southeast of Yap. 02W is forecast to track to the northwest and then north over the next 72 hours and gradually increase in intensity. Based on the current warning 02W poses no threat to Guam. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A minor earthquake occurred at 10:20 PM EDT on Wednesday, May 16, 2007. The magnitude 5.1 event occurred 912 miles west southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, at a depth of 60.9 miles. No tsunami generated. No reports of any injuries or damages.  (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5)
Initial attack activity: 269 (Moderate);
New large fires: 5;
Large fires contained: 6;
Uncontained large fires: 21;
Type 1 IMTs committed: 4.

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1701-DR, for severe storms and Inland and Coastal  Flooding in Massachusetts April 15 to April 25, 2007. Eight  counties are eligible for Public Assistance, including Direct Federal Assistance and Hazard Mitigation, statewide. The FCO will be Michael L. Parker.

FEMA-1693-DR-ME is amended effective May 16, 2007.  Amendment 4 adds Washington County for Public Assistance.

FEMA-1694-DR-NJ is amended effective May 16, 2007.  Amendment 3 adds Atlantic and Warren Counties for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)