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National Situation Update: Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West:
Much of the region will be dry, but scattered thunderstorms are likely in the Four Corners area.  High temperatures will range from the 50s in the southern Rockies to the over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.

Midwest:
High pressure will dominate weather over most of the region.  An upper level disturbance will produce scattered thunderstorms with hail across parts of the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes later today.
The tail end of the cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms along the Texas and Louisiana coasts.  High temperatures are expected to range from the 50s around the upper Great Lakes to the 90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley.

South:
The cold front pushing out of the Midwest will produce showers and thunderstorms from the mid Atlantic to the Gulf Coast. The precipitation should reach the fires in southern Georgia and Florida tonight.  Cooler air will move in behind the front. High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in West Texas to the 90s in Georgia.

Northeast:
The frontal system associated with a surface low pressure area over New York will produce rain and thunderstorms from Upstate New York to the Mid-Atlantic and rain over New England. A few thunderstorms may turn severe with hail and strong winds and the possibility of tornadoes. Highs will range from the 40s in northern Maine to the 80s ahead of the front in eastern Virginia. (NWS, Media Sources)

Florida/Georgia Wildfires

Sweat Farm Road/ Big Turnaround Fire (Brantley, Charlton and Ware Counties): 

South of Waycross (Ware and Charlton Counties)

Acres:  136,306 acres (Sweat Farm Road: 46,264 acres; Big Turnaround:  90,042 acres).

Containment: Sweat Farm Road: 80 percent contained; Big Turnaround:  45 percent contained.  Estimated containment date for Sweat Farm is May 31.  No containment date has been projected for Big Turnaround.  Firefighters had a successful day of controlling minimal restarts within the fire perimeter. No new fire starts occurred. 
Evacuations/Closures:  Folkston and surrounding communities remain threatened.  The Okefenokee National Wildfire Refuge remains closed.

Bugaboo Scrub Fire (Ware County/Charlton County Areas):
Location:  16 miles west of Folkston
Acres:  136,565

Containment:  15 percent.  Crews and heavy equipment continue to strengthen lines on the southwest edge of the Okefenokee Swamp near Fargo and will continue to burn fuels along the southeast boundary of the fire within the National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), heading north towards the NWR Headquarters.

Evacuations/Closures:  Numerous structures are threatened.  Stephen C. Foster State Park remains closed.

Bugaboo Scrub 2 (Clinch /Charlton County Areas): 

Location:  5 miles east of Fargo

Acres:  2,628

Containment:  0 percent with no projected containment date.  Several communities are threatened.

Florida Bugaboo Wildfire:

Acres: 109,000

Containment:  50percent, The fire was very active on Monday and jumped the containment lines about 5 miles north of the Deep Creek Community at about 4:00 pm, moving in a westerly direction. Approximately 170 firefighters with equipment are located along U.S. Highway 441 to protect structures in the fire’s path. The crews worked through the night to contain this breakout.  Homes were evacuated on the west side of US 441 from Lassie Black Road, north to the Suwannee River.  (SACC, FEMA Region IV)

New Jersey Wildfire

The area burning is at the edge of the 1.1 million-acre Pinelands national preserve, about 25 miles north of Atlantic City.  The wildfire at the Warren Grove Gunnery Range started with a self-defense flare dropped by an F-16 on a training run - a flare that should have gone out long before it hit the ground, according to a New Jersey National Guard spokesman. 

That flare ignited a blaze that, fed by dry weather and whipped by a 30 mph southwest wind, has burned close to 12,000 acres in a 20-square mile area, forced the evacuation of thousands of residents and burned an undetermined amount of homes.

The fire is currently only 10 percent contained, according to a state forest fire warden. Firefighters from 150 units from five counties will continue to battle the forest fire. (Region II, local news media)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2695-NJ was issued at 12:33 am EDT, May 16, 2007 for the Warren Grove Fire near Warren Grove, New Jersey. Communities threatened are Pinewood Estates, Brighton, Warren Grove, Ocean Acres, Fawn Lake, Atlantic Hills and Ocean Breeze. Mandatory evacuation of 2500 people was ordered. There are 2500 residences, NJ State Highway 72, County Road 539, and County Road 554 are being threatened. Fire behavior is uncontrolled and rapidly spreading. Fire is on State and Private land.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant activity to report.

Eastern Pacific: No significant activity to report. The Eastern Pacific Hurricane season begins today, May 15 and runs to November 30.

Western Pacific: A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been issued for an area of convection near 8.9N 145.3E approximately 300 miles south of Guam. Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within the next 12 to 24 hours. Available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warning at this time. Winds in the area are estimated to be 17 to 23 mph. The system has undergone significant consolidation over the last 12 hours, as seen in animated infrared satellite imagery the system is expected to track west-northwestward to northwestward.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2 (On a scale from 1 to 5) Initial attack activity: 165 (Light); New large fires: 3; Large fires contained: 0; Uncontained large fires: 27; Type 1 IMTs committed: 4.

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office (JFO) for FEMA-3274-EM-Indiana closed 15 May 2007.

The Governor of South Dakota has requested a major disaster declaration as a result of severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of May 4-5, 2007. The Governor is specifically requesting Individual Assistance for 12 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

The Governor of Rhode Island has requested a major disaster declaration as a result of heavy rainfall and coastal storm surge during the period of April 15-16, 2007. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance and Hazard Mitigation for Newport County.

The Governor of Kansas has requested an adjustment to the Federal cost share of the Public Assistance program for FEMA-1699-DR, declared of May 6, 2007, for Kansas as a result of severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding.  (FEMA HQ)