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National Situation Update: Monday, February 12, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hazards for the Week

Heavy rain is expected for the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley from February 12-13.

Severe weather is anticipated for the Gulf Coast and northern Florida from February 12-13.

Heavy rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected for the mid-Atlantic states from February 13-14.

Heavy lake-effect snow is expected for the Great Lakes, except Erie, from February 13-16.

Severe drought will persist across portions of the central and southwestern United States.

National Weather Summary

Midwest
A developing storm center over northern Texas will generate a snowfall across the northern Plains. Up to 6 inches of wind-blown snow are likely over the Dakotas and Nebraska with a mix of light snow and rain across Kansas.

In the Midwest, a bit of light snow, with little or no accumulation, is expected to scoot eastward across Iowa and the lower Great Lakes.

Tonight, heavy snow may develop in parts of the lower Midwest as the storm really cranks up. Snow will increase from South Dakota and Nebraska to northern and central Illinois by 6 inches in some locations.

Farther south, rain is expected to spread across most of Missouri and Kentucky. A little wet snow is possible along the northern fringe of the rain shield in extreme northern Missouri and the mid-Ohio Valley.

South
A storm center over northern Texas will trigger showers and thunderstorms across the south-central U S. The heaviest activity will be reserved for eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, parts of Arkansas and maybe far western Tennessee. A few of the storms could turn severe, even tornadic, over eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex during the afternoon.

The threat of severe weather will then shift eastward tonight through Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

Other showers and storms during the day will erupt over Florida, mainly on the southern half of the peninsula.

Northeast
Arctic air will invade the Northeast, accompanied by scattered snow showers and flurries across northern New England, Upstate New York and much of Pennsylvania.

Farther south, a few rain and snow showers from a developing storm in Texas will pass across West Virginia and Virginia, but shouldn't amount to anything.

A lake-effect snow band off the eastern end of Lake Ontario may be going strong in the early morning, but is expected to shift southward and dissipate as the next arctic cold front moves through and winds turn northerly.

West
Precipitation in the West will be somewhat less widespread than it was over the weekend. The Intermountain region may see little if any rain or snow.

A weak Pacific front will bring showers to western Washington, western Oregon and northern California.

Generally light snow and snow showers will dot the Rockies while somewhat heavier, wind-blown snow assaults southern Montana and northern Wyoming.  (NWS, Media Sources)

FEMA Regional Activity Reports

Region I:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region II:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region III:

• National Weather Service Baltimore-Washington continues to monitor the possibility for a significant winter storm early next week. Snow is expected across the region possibly as early as Monday, lasting through Tuesday night. There is some uncertainty as to the exact track of this storm system and those finer scale details will become clearer by Monday morning.
  
• The Maryland Joint Operations Center is continuing to monitor a winter weather event that is forecast to impact Maryland. The Maryland Joint Operations Center will conduct a conference call with the National Weather Service at 2:00 p.m. EST Monday to obtain the latest weather forecast.
  
• MEMA reports that HF Radio (MJOC) SCIRR 2j: The FEMA National Radio System (FNARS) unit is out of service. A trouble ticket has been opened with MEMA Communications Staff. MEMA has no estimated time for restoration of service (ETRS).
  
• Pennsylvania EMA reports that a partial floor collapse has caused the Pittsburgh International Auto Show, which was scheduled to begin this weekend at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center, to be delayed until the April-June time frame.

Region IV:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region V:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region VI:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region VII:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region VIII:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region IX:

• Nothing significant to report.

Region X:

• Nothing significant to report. (FEMA Regions I-X, FEMA HQ)

Village May Set N.Y. Mark for Snowfall

Redfield, in upstate New York's snowbelt, gets a lot of snowfall during the winter, but last week's total, more than 11 feet, unofficially, might be an all-time record.

Before it began to wind down Sunday, persistent streams of squalls fueled by moisture from Lake Ontario during the last week consistently dumped lake-effect snow in this western New York region.

Redfield's total of 136 inches would break the state record of ten feet seven inches that fell in nearby Montague over seven days ending Jan. 1, 2002. A National Weather Service official will travel Monday to verify the amount. Redfield receives an annual average of 270 inches, more than 22 feet.

NWS spokesman said the proper way to measure snow requires taking readings about every six hours, to allow the light fluffy nature of lake-effect snow to settle.

The heavy snow is common along the Tug Hill Plateau, a 50-mile wedge that rises 2,100 feet from the lake's eastern shore. It usually gets about 300 inches, roughly 25 feet of snow a year.

Roads were mostly cleared Sunday as workers turned their attention to removing the snow and trimming down 10- and 12-foot-high snowbanks.

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

No significant activity. National preparedness level is 1 (lowest on a 1-5 scale). (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)