National Situation Update: Friday, August 31, 2007
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Idaho Wildfires
East Zone Fire Complex, Idaho: The East Zone Fire Complex in Valley County, Idaho started on July 6, 2007 due to lightning and has burned about 213,290 acres. The fire is threatening the towns of Warren, Secesh, and South Fork in Valley County and has the potential to merge with the cascade Complex Fire (also in Valley County, Idaho).
Evacuations in Warren are voluntary and Secesh is under an evacuation advisory.
Both Warren and Secesh are surrounded by fire on three sides and the potential escape route from the towns is threatened.
There are six (6) homes, seven (7) outbuildings destroyed and 156 homes and 385 other structures are threatened. Three (3) roads/bridges and power lines are threatened.
Cascade Fire Complex, Idaho: The Cascade Fire Complex in Valley County, Idaho started on July 17, 2007 due to lightning and has burned 236,282 acres. The fire is threatening the towns of Yellow Pine, Warm Lake, and Paradise Valley in Valley County and has the potential to merge with the East Zone Complex fire.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Yellow Pine, and total evacuation of Warm Lake is ongoing. The status of evacuations in Paradise Valley is unknown. The fire is 1.5 miles from Yellow Pine, and Warm Lake is surrounded.
There are three (3) outbuildings destroyed along with 167 primary homes, 27 commercial, and 159 other out buildings threatened. A town hall and fire station (unknown which community) are threatened along with an airport, three (3) roads/bridges, and power lines. (FEMA HQ)
Midwest Flooding Update
Illinois
FEMA-1722-DR-IL declared on August 30, 2007 for Individual Assistance in Stephenson and Winnebago Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.
Pre-PDA Planning Meeting held August 30, 2007.
6 IA and PA PDA teams have been requested for Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Lake, and McHenry counties.
IA PDAs will begin on September 4, 2007; PA PDAs will begin on September 9, 2007.
Indiana
A PDA for Lake County is tentatively scheduled for September 5, 2007.
Wisconsin
IA PDAs completed for 9 additional counties: 226 affected; 122 minor; 24 major; 8 destroyed.
3 DRCs opened August 30, 2007 in La Crosse, Crawford and Richland Counties; SBA providing assistance at DRCs.
PA PDA for Dane County completed August 30, 2007.
5 of 6 counties surveyed for damage assessment met threshold for assistance.
5 Community Relations (CR) teams deployed to designated counties August 30, 2007.
Initial Operating Facility (IOF) hours of operation: 7:30 am - 6:00 pm CDT daily, including Labor Day.
Anticipate State requesting to add Public Assistance to the declaration for 5 counties and 9 additional counties for Individual Assistance. (FEMA region V)
Iowa
Conducting joint federal/state PDAs for PA and IA in fourteen counties. The PDAs for PA are anticipated to be completed Friday, August 31, 2007.
Missouri
Conducting joint federal/state PDAs for PA in seven southwestern counties. The PDAs are anticipated to be completed Friday, August 31, 2007. (FEMA Region VII)
Food and Agriculture (USDA) Disaster Report Summary for Midwest Floods
Based on the estimated losses in the report, estimate the total value of crop losses (at current prices) to be $122 million.
Losses by state are: Missouri $0.9 million; Ohio $59.8 million; Oklahoma $6.3 million; and Wisconsin $55.3 million.
These loss estimates reflect the farm value of crop lost and as such do not reflect potential losses to other industries, such as food processors. (FEMA HQ, USDA)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
FMAG FEMA-2725-FM-ID was approved on August 30, 2007 at 9:38 pm EDT for the East Zone Complex fire in Valley County, Idaho.
FMAG FEMA-2726-FM-ID was approved on August 30, 2007 at 9:40 pm EDT for the Cascade Complex fire in Valley County, Idaho. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 480 miles east of the Windward Islands is slowly becoming better organized. If current trends continue a Tropical Depression could form from this system on Friday, August 31, 2007. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, August 31, 2007, if necessary.
A small area of low pressure about 250 miles southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey is moving north-northwestward and is expected to Begin moving northeastward ahead of an approaching frontal system. While this system has changed little in organization during the evening there is still some potential for it to become a Tropical Cyclone before being overtaken by the front.
Shower activity associated with a westward-moving tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche has diminished this evening. This system Is moving inland over mainland Mexico and significant development is not expected. Nevertheless locally heavy rains remain possible over portions of eastern and central mainland Mexico over the next day or two and these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
A large area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered about 250 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands. Shower activity with this system is minimal and development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur.
Shower activity associated with the non-tropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast remains minimal and further development is not expected.
Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Eleven-E (TD 11-E)
At 2:00 am PDT (5:00 am EDT), August 31, 2007, the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E (TD 11-E) was located about 120 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 Hours. On this track the center is expected to move near and parallel to the Pacific Coast of Mexico today and tonight, August 31, 2007.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later this morning.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches along the south coast of Mexico with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible.
Tropical Storm Gil (TS Gil)
At 2:00 am PDT (5:00 am EDT), August 31, 2007 Tropical Storm Gil was located about 496 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.
Present movement toward the west at about 10 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure 1000mb (29.53 inches).
Max sustained winds 40 mph with gusts to 52 mph.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours. ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
Joint federal/state PDAs for PA and IA for fourteen counties in Iowa are ongoing. The PDAs for PA are scheduled for completion Friday, August 31, 2007.
Joint federal/state PDAs for PA for seven southwestern counties in Missouri are ongoing and are scheduled for completion Friday, August 31, 2007.
IA and PA PDAs for Grand Forks County, North Dakota were completed on August 30, 2007(FEMA Regions, FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 4
States Most Affected: Montana, Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 30, 2007
Initial Attack Activity was Moderate with 216 new fires
New large fires: 5
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 33
2007 acres burned to date: 6,908,449
Weather Discussion: Increasing thunderstorm activity in the Northwest, Idaho and Montana Thursday, August 30, 2007 and Friday, August 31, 2007. Hot weather will cover much of the West the next couple of days with gusty winds developing from the Sierras to Idaho and Montana on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Southeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, Media Sources)
Disaster Declaration Activity
FEMA-1722-DR was declared August 30, 2007, for Illinois, for Individual Assistance in Stephenson and Winnebago Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Friday, 31-Aug-2007 07:43:02 EDT