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National Situation Update: Monday, August 20, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South:
High heat and humidity will continue to grip the south.  Isolated thunderstorms should do little to ease the effects of the heat and most areas will remain dry.  Areas likely to see thunderstorms are: along the Gulf Coast, southern Florida, northwest Arkansas, the southern Appalachians, parts of western and eastern Oklahoma, and western Texas.High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s across most of the region. 

West:
Much of the West should remain dry.  Southern Arizona and southern New Mexico could experience some rain showers.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest.

Gusty winds should increase wildfire danger in Montana, Wyoming, and areas in and around the northern Great Basin.  

Highs temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in much of the Pacific Northwest to around 110 in portions of the lower Colorado River Valley.

Midwest:
Heavy rainfall, with potential flooding, is expected to continue across portions of the lower Midwest through Monday.  Areas of greatest risk include southern Michigan and the northern portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.   Tropical Depression Erin, or its remnant system, may impact Missouri with heavy rains.  Southwest Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, and Northwest Iowa may receive heavy rainfall as well. 

High temperatures are expected to be in the range of 60s and 70s near the Great Lakes to the 90s in the central Plains and lower Oho Valley.

Northeast:
Heavy rainfall, with the threat of localized flooding, may impact parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. 

Autumn-like temperatures should continue across much of mid-Atlantic and northern New England.

High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s-70s in the Northeast to the 90s in southern Virginia.  (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

An FMAG was approved (FEMA-2723-FM-MT) at 11:11 pm Aug. 19 for the Ford Road Fire, which has burned 700 acres in Yellowstone County, Montana (Community of Lockwood, population 4,300). (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Hurricane Dean:
At 5:00 am EDT August 20, 2007, the center of Hurricane Dean was located about 115 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 495 miles east of Belize City.

Hurricane Dean, currently a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph, is moving toward the west at 21 mph and this general motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the center of Hurricane Dean will be approaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

Hurricane Dean could reach Category 5 strength within the next 24 hours. 

State and Federal response:

• FEMA HQ: The President has signed an emergency declaration (FEMA-3277-EM) for the State of Texas on August 18, 2007, in preparation for Hurricane Dean
• FEMA NRCC:  The NRCC will maintain Level II for the day shift only, 0700-1900, through Monday, August 20, 2007.  ESFs 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 15 are activated.  Effective 0700 Tuesday, August 21, 2007, the NRCC will assume Level I operations (24/7).  ESFs will execute their portions of the 2007 Hurricane Season Contingency Plan (CONPLAN) Execution Schedule through TS-24.  The DOD Liaison Officer remains on call.
• FEMA Region IV Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is activated at Level III (0700 - 1900 hours) until further notice. 
• FEMA Region VI Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is activated at Level I.  All ESFs have been activated at Region VI RRCC.
• The Texas State Operations Center is operating at Level 1 (Emergency Conditions).  The Governor has directed the full activation of state response capability, to include, but not limited to, 10,000 members of Texas Military Forces with equipment, 250 Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Rescue Crews, 33 UH60 and 14 CH47 utility and cargo military helicopters, Task Force Lonestar, Texas Task Force One, Texas Task Force Two, the State Shelter Hub and Host Shelter System, Four Regional Incident Management Teams, and Statewide Mutual Aid.  The Governor has issued a Disaster Proclamation, effective August 17, 2007, and has requested Federal assistance from the President. 

Former Tropical Depression Erin:
As of 11:00 pm EDT Sunday, Erin is no longer a Tropical Depression. The main threat for heavy rainfall includes northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and Missouri. Additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected across portions of these regions, with isolated maximum amounts up to 5 inches.  Moisture from this weakening system will continue to interact with a surface frontal boundary extending from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, enhancing rainfall there. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected from the Midwest into Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Wisconsin Flooding Incident Response:
The State of Wisconsin Emergency Operations Center was activated at 5:00 a.m. Sunday in response to widespread flooding in Vernon and Richland, and LaCrosse counties, located in the southwestern corner of the state. 

Overnight Saturday, thunderstorms produced 10 - 12 inches of rain washing out or closing roads and bridges. Power lines and trees are also down.  There are no reports of injuries or fatalities at this time.  More rain is expected overnight.

The Red Cross is currently sheltering around 120 people. The Red Cross and Salvation Army are coordinating on feeding operations, which are expected to begin tomorrow at open Red Cross shelters.

5 dams in Vernon County are overflowing into emergency spillways. The Department of Natural Resources is concerned about erosion at the Runge Hollow and Seas Branch dams.  Vernon County Emergency Management is evacuating areas downstream of both dams and is advising everyone to stay out of the areas around those two dams.

Officials with the Department of Natural Resources, Department Health & Family Services, Department of Transportation, Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, Department of Administration, National Guard, State Patrol and Red Cross are at the EOC.  The WI National Guard is also on standby and the Joint Operations Center is activated.  Two WEM Regional Directors are heading to Vernon and Lacrosse counties to assist.

The EOC will remain open 24 hours a day for at least the next 48 hours. The Governor is expected to visit the affected areas of flooding Monday.

A FEMA Region V Liaison is in route to the EOC.  There have been no further requests for Federal Assistance.  FEMA Region V continues to monitor the situation and is maintaining close contact with the State. (Region V)

Oklahoma Flooding Incident Response:
Heavy rains and powerful winds developed as the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin pushed across the state of Oklahoma. At the peak of the storm early Sunday, about 25,000 customers of Oklahoma Gas and Electric, mostly in the Oklahoma City area, were without power.

The Oklahoma Medical Examiner's Office confirms two disaster-related fatalities. Media reports three additional highway deaths related to the flooding. At least two people were injured in Watonga, Oklahoma where straight-line winds damaged several mobile homes.

Caddo County Emergency Management spokesman says hundreds of people were evacuated from their homes in Apache, Fort Cobb and Carnegie after the Washita River flooded its banks. In Kingfisher, officials have recovered all known stranded residents and are in the process of going door to door, making contact with all citizens to inquire about their health and welfare. The American Red Cross has opened the shelters to assist those displaced by the storms:

Flood conditions forced closure of Interstate 40 near El Reno. The interstate was shut down for several hours, and several people were rescued from vehicles swept off the roadway.

The Oklahoma Office of Emergency Management (OEM) has personnel in the field assisting local emergency managers with preliminary damage assessments (PDAs) in Comanche, Caddo, Kingfisher and Blaine counties. Additional PDAs are expected to take place tomorrow. OEM also provided two generators in Watonga to keep water treatment plants on-line in the community which is without electric service. To Geary OEM dispatched Oklahoma National Guard water trailers for the community which is without water.

The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) remains activated and the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM) is in contact with emergency managers in the affected areas. (Oklahoma OEM, media sources)

Atlantic Activity (other):
Significant development of a low pressure area associated with a tropical wave 300 miles east-southeast of Barbados appears unlikely. 

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave has increased slightly Sunday a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has mostly diminished in association with the area of low pressure centered about 375 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Further development of this system is not expected as it moves northwestward over cooler waters.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm Sepat was downgraded from a typhoon and has tracked inland into China.  Sepat does not pose any threat to U.S. territories.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.
( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Moderate earthquakes continue in the Adreanof Islands west-southwest of Adak, Alaska.  There are no reports of injuries or damage. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho, Oregon, and Wyoming
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 19, 2007:

• New large fires: 3
• Large fires contained: 9
• Uncontained large fires: 57
• 2007 acres burned to date: 6,309,979

The Zaca Fire in Los Padres National Forest grew an additional 11,500 acres to 183,408 acres at 75 percent contained. This fire is 15 miles northeast of Bulleton, California, and one of the largest wildfires in modern California history.  The Governor has declared a state of emergency for Ventura County.  Full containment is projected for September 7. Structures and power transmission lines are threatened. Evacuation warnings are in effect. (NICC, NIFC)

Weather Discussion: 
Dry, windy weather today from the Sierras to Montana and Wyoming. Thunderstorms are expected over Montana and Wyoming with showers moving into northeast Washington, northern Idaho and Northwest Montana late in the day. Hot, dry weather will continue over southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new information to report.