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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 19, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South:
Tropical Depression Erin is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall across eastern Texas and western Oklahoma into Sunday.  Rainfall from Erin could continue to create dangerous flash flooding situations.

High temperatures across the South are expected to be in the high 90s.    

West:
Lower temperatures and areas of scattered rainfall are expected for the Northwest through Tuesday. 

Highs will range from the 60s in the Pacific Northwest to the 90s in Colorado and New Mexico, to between 100-120 in Death Valley.

Midwest:
A fall-like front is dividing the Midwest, with cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s resulting north of the front.  Some thunderstorms are sliding along the front, with rain totals expected to be in the 2-6 inch range across the north-central Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes.

High temperatures south of the front are expected to be in the high 90s.

Northeast:
Cooler temperatures continue for much of the northeast, from Pennsylvania to Maine. 

High temperatures will range from the 60s-70s in the Northeast to the 80s-90s in West Virginia and Virginia.  (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:

Hurricane Dean:
At 5:00 am EDT August 19, 2007, the center of Hurricane Dean was located about 245 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 155 miles south-southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti.

Hurricane Dean, currently a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 145 mph, is moving toward the west at 18 mph and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the core of the hurricane will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti during the next few hours and will be near Jamaica later today.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. 

State and Federal response:

• DHS HQ: Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff has declared the Hurricane Dean threat to Texas to be an Incident of National Significance as of Saturday, August 17, 2007.
• FEMA HQ: The President has signed an emergency declaration (FEMA-3277-EM) for the State of Texas on August 18, 2007, in preparation for Hurricane Dean.  Specifically, FEMA is authorized to provide emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding.  32 counties have been designated.  Additional designations may be made at a later date after further evaluation.  The FCO is Kenneth Clark. 
• FEMA NRCC:  The NRCC will maintain Level II for the day shift only, 0700-1900, through Monday, August 20, 2007.  ESFs 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, and 15 are activated.  Effective 0700 Tuesday, August 21, 2007, the NRCC will assume Level I operations (24/7).  ESFs will execute their portions of the 2007 Hurricane Season Contingency Plan (CONPLAN) Execution Schedule through TS-24.  The DOD Liaison Officer remains on call.
• FEMA Region IV Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is activated at Level III (0700 - 1900 hours) until further notice. 
• FEMA Region VI Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is activated at Level I, beginning 24 hour operations at 0630 hrs CDT Sunday.  ESFs have been activated and are on standby at the Region VI RRCC.
• The Texas State Operations Center is operating at Level 1 (Emergency Conditions).  The Governor has directed the full activation of state response capability, to include, but not limited to, 10,000 members of Texas Military Forces with equipment, 250 Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Rescue Crews, 33 UH60 and 14 CH47 utility and cargo military helicopters, Task Force Lonestar, Texas Task Force One, Texas Task Force Two, the State Shelter Hub and Host Shelter System, Four Regional Incident Management Teams, and Statewide Mutual Aid.  The Governor has issued a Disaster Proclamation, effective August 17, 2007, and has requested Federal assistance from the President.
• The Texas Emergency Management Council (24 State Agencies, 6 Federal Agencies, and 38 Private Sector Organizations) is operating 24/7.  

Tropical Depression Erin:
At 5:00 am EDT, Sunday, August 19, 2007, Tropical Depression Erin was over central Oklahoma this morning, continuing to move toward the northeast and is supporting thunderstorms, strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.  Flash flood watches are in effect for north-west Texas into central Oklahoma.  Flood and flash warnings are in effect for several counties in southwest and central Oklahoma.  The Depression is moving northeast at 15 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 - 24 hours. 

Atlantic (other activity):
None of the tropical waves are showing impressive organization and there are not any large areas of convective activity.

Eastern Pacific:
The broad area of low pressure centered about 250 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is moving  northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Shower activity is poorly organized and environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for development of this system.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Typhoon Sepat struck China's Fujian Province on Saturday with maximum sustained winds near 111 mph. Sepat does not pose any threat to U.S. territories.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.
( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, FEMA Regions II, IV, VI, FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

Moderate earthquakes continue in the Adreanof Islands west-southwest of Adak, Alaska.  There are no reports of injuries or damage. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 18, 2007:

• New large fires: 12
• Large fires contained: 5
• Uncontained large fires: 63
• 2007 acres burned to date: 6,213,160

Weather Discussion: 
Dry and windy weather conditions are predicted for Idaho and western Montana today. The region from the Sierras and Cascades east toward the Rockies will have gusty winds with thunderstorms over Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. Hot and dry weather will continue over southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1711-DR-Kansas, Amendment #6:  The major disaster declaration for the State of Kansas is hereby amended to include Edwards and Pawnee Counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance.)

FEMA-1692-DR-New York, Amendment # 3: The major disaster declaration for the State of New York is hereby amended to appoint William L. Vogel to act as the Federal Coordinating Officer for this declared disaster.  This action terminates the appointment of Marianne C. Jackson as Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster. (FEMA HQ)