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National Situation Update: Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Storm Flossie Update

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located 175 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii and about 280 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, Oahu. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue through today. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii. The hurricane watch has been canceled for the big island of Hawaii.

Trailing rain bands behind Flossie may still produce heavy rains today.

State and Federal Actions:

• Eleven shelters are open on the big island of Hawaii. FEMA PPDS sites have supplies cots and blankets for shelters. The current shelter population is 150.
• There has been no reported impact to nationally significant critical infrastructure and/or key resources. Hawaii County is reporting all schools closed. Hawaii county road closures include: Vacationland, South Point, Punaluu and Whittington. All other critical infrastructure sectors are reporting normal operations.
• FEMA Emergency Response Team-Advanced (ERT-A) arrived in Honolulu to manage potential federal response operations. A USCG-130 aircraft scheduled to fly post-storm assessment at 0800 HST (1400 EDT) with Coast Guard, United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and FEMA staff.
• State emergency operations center remains activated to support hurricane Flossie response operations. Hawaii county EOC is activated; Maui and Kauai EOCs continue to monitor weather conditions.
• Non-essential state employees on big island were instructed not to report to work on Wednesday, August 15, the second straight day that they have been kept from work.
• There is no request for federal assistance at this time.
• National Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) teams are on alert to deploy. Mobile emergency response system (MERS) communications units are on standby at Oahu, hi if needed. Region ix established a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Hawaii to allow the use of pre-positioned disaster supplies (PPDS) and generators. (Central Pacific Hurricane Center, State of Hawaii, the National Weather Service, the Coast Guard, FEMA Region IX, NRCC)

Tropical Storm Dean:

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Dean (formerly Tropical Depression Four) was located about 1,170 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Dean is moving toward the west near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Based on the current warning the system will become a hurricane and pass south of Puerto Rico at 8:00 pm EDT Saturday 18 Aug.

State and Federal Actions:

• Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region II response coordination center (RRCC) activated to level II during business hours. Region II RRCC plans to increase to 24-hour operations on Friday, August 17.
• Region IV RRCC activated at level III during duty hours.
• FEMA National Response Coordination Center is activated to level II for 24 hour operations. Region II will deploy emergency response teams - advance (ERT-A) on august 15 to both Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These teams will be operation by august 16.
• National Disaster Medical System (NDMS) has placed two Disaster Medical Assistance Teams on alert (DMAT) for possible deployment to Puerto Rico if needed. NDMS is also checking availability of other teams for deployment.
• Local responders in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands have command and control with FEMA Region II providing federal support.
• FEMA Emergency Response Teams-Advanced (ERT-A) deployed to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and expected to be operational on Thursday, August 16.
• No request for Federal Assistance at this time.(National Hurricane Center, Fema Region IV, NRCC)

National Forecast Summary

West: Most of the West will be hot and dry with scattered thunderstorms in Wyoming, Colorado, eastern Utah, northwest New Mexico, the higher elevations of Arizona and the Front Range of Colorado. High temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast to over 100 in the lower Colorado River Valley, Death Valley, San Joaquin Valley, northwest Nevada, and along the Snake River near the Oregon-Idaho border.

Midwest: A cold front dropping down from Canada will produce showers and thunderstorms across much of the Midwest. Locally heavy rain is possible across parts of southern Wisconsin, northeast Iowa, northern Illinois and Indiana. North of the front highs will be in the in the 70s are likely across northern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and the northern half of Michigan. South of the front temperatures will be above 100 for Kansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

South: There is no relief in the heat across the region anytime soon. High temperatures at or above 100 will continue from southern Plains to the Carolinas. Tropical Depression Five is forecast to become a tropical storm prior to making landfall near the lower or middle Texas coast by Thursday morning. Resulting in additional river flooding for waterlogged areas of south Texas.

Northeast: Much of the region will have fair conditions today but the front dropping south out of Canada will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern sections of New York and New England. High temperatures are forecast should range from the 60s in northern Maine to 90 or more from Philadelphia to Virginia. (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2720-HI was issued for the Waialua Fire on the Island of Oahu (City and County of Honolulu) in Hawaii was approved on August 14, 2007, at 6:25 AM EDT. The fire was threatening over 100 homes and 15 businesses in the community of Waialua.  The fire is within one half mile of the structures.  In addition, the fire is threatening two elementary schools, one high school, an agricultural center, and the area watershed.  A major communication tower used for the island's warning system is also threatened.  The fire started on August 12, 2007, and has burned in excess of 3,000 acres of State and private land.  The fire is zero percent contained. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
As discussed above Tropical Storm Dean (formerly Tropical Depression Four) was located about 1,170  miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
 
Tropical Depression Five:
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression Five was located about 365 miles east-southeast of Brownsville Texas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Texas coast from Freeport southward to the Mexican Border. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. The center of the depression is forecast to be near the lower or middle Texas coast by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm prior to making landfall. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the middle Texas coast with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Eastern Pacific:
As discussed above Tropical Storm Flossie is 175 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 450 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California,  Mexico has changed little in organization this afternoon. Significant development of this system is not expected.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
Super typhoon 09W (Sepat) located approximately 725 miles south- east of Kaoshing, Taiwan poses no threat to U.S. territories.  ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
States Most Affected:  Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 14, 2007:

Initial attack activity: Light
New large fires: 8
Large fires contained: 7
Uncontained large fires: 56
2007 acres burned to date: 5,831,842 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)