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National Situation Update: Monday, August 13, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Hurricane Flossie Update

As of 5:00 am Monday, August 13, Hurricane Flossie was a low Category 4 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds were near 135 mph. Flossie was located about 585 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii, and about 795 miles east-southeast of Honolulu Hawaii.

The intensity forecast remains dependent on the impact of increasing vertical wind shear that Flossie is expected to feel within the next 24 to 36 hours. Recent runs of the global models have been showing
this shear may be less than was expected in the runs made 24 hours ago. Therefore, the intensity forecast for Flossie remains uncertain. The current track, intensity, and wind radii forecast may require watches for portions of the Hawaiian Islands Monday morning.

The forecast closely follows the previous forecast, and keeps Flossie at hurricane strength as it passes south of The Big Island of Hawaii late Tuesday. The current track and intensity forecast may require watches for portions of the Hawaiian Islands early on Monday.

The current Hurrevac models on the present forecast track show Flossie passing 85 miles SSW of the Big Island on Wednesday, August 15, at 2:00 am EDT. Winds at that time are forecast to be in the 90-105 mph range.  Hurricane Force winds extend outward up to 40 miles.  Tropical Force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.  Tropical force winds are expected on the south-east side of Big Island.

Local forecasts for the Big Island at this time Tropical Storm force winds will extend out as far north as the southern Big Island. However, a northward shift in the track could potentially bring hurricane force winds to the big island. Torrential rainfall is expected across southeast and east slopes, with greatest
rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches possible across upslope Kau District Tuesday afternoon. Flash flooding likely, even with the fast movement of the storm (12-13 mph), and 10 to 15 feet surf on SE shores - no surge predicted. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect  for the Southeast waters on the Big Island until 6:00 a.m. August 16.

Region IX is activating and deploying ERT-A to Oahu on Monday, August 13, activating ESF-1, ESF-3, and ESF-8 to travel with the ERT-A.  A DCO has also been activated.  A State Liaison was deployed to the Hawaii State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) on Sunday, August 12. Region IX hours Monday will be 7:00 am to 7:00 pm PDT, going to 24 hours operations on Tuesday as a modified Level II.

The State of Hawaii EOC is activated 24 hours.  Hawaii County EOC is also activated

Hazards for the Week

• From August 13-18, severe weather is possible from the northern great plains to the central great lakes.
• From August 13-24, many above normal temperatures are likely from the central Great Plains, the middle and lower Mississippi valley and sections of the southeast.
• From August 13-24, scattered heavy thunderstorms, heavy rain and local flooding are likely in the southwest in association with on-going monsoon conditions.
• Large wildfires continue to burn in the Pacific Northwest, Idaho, and western Montana.
• Severe drought persists across California, much of the intermountain west, central high plains, upper Mississippi valley, eastern Ohio valley, Tennessee valley, southeast, and mid-Atlantic

National Forecast Summary

South
Scorching heat will continue throughout much of the region. Many locations will see high temperatures of 100 or above.

Temperatures in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida should remain in the 90s due to scattered cloudiness and isolated thunderstorms.

Northeast
New England and Virginia may experience patchy isolated showers or thunderstorms.

Midwest
Blazing heat is expected in the Great Plains from North Dakota to northern Texas.

The far eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa are forecast to receive a few severe storms later in the day. Parts of Minneapolis may receive damaging wind gusts and hail.

High temperatures are expected to range from the 70s around the northern and eastern Great Lakes to over 100 in much of South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and southern Missouri.

West
Thunderstorms and showers are expected over the mountains of southwest Colorado. Little to no precipitation is expected elsewhere in the region.

Portions of far eastern Colorado will experience temperatures over 100. Temperatures in much of the northern Great Basin will be in the 90s.

Temperatures are expected to be over 110 in parts of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Fire Management Assistance Grant FEMA-2719-FM-MT was approved on August 12, 2007 at 9:00 pm EDT for the Little Goose Fire in West Big Horn, Sheridan County, Wyoming. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity, associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low, extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into the Florida Straights. This system is moving west-northwestward about 10 mph, and is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. Development of this system, if any, could become favorable in a couple of days.

A low pressure area, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about 250 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. A small increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression as the low moves westward at about 20 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Monday, August 13, 2007 Hurricane Flossie was located approximately 585 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and 795 miles east southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. It is moving west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu has issued several Small Craft Advisories, but no hurricane advisories issued as yet

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Tuesday afternoon.

Western Pacific:
No new systems affecting U.S. interests. ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   5
States Most Affected:   Montana and Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 12, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Light (173)
• New large fires: 12
• Large fires contained: 4
• Uncontained large fires: 48
• 2007 acres burned to date: 5,590,643

Current Fire Situation:Wyoming - the Little Goose Fire started on August 10, 2007 and was caused by lightening. There are 190 homes threatened in a total of three subdivisons. Other resources threatened are a major communications tower, fishing streams, and wildlife/enviornmental assets. There are no additonal resouces available to fight the fire and it is zero percent contained. Winds are erratic at 15 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. The temperature is 98 degrees with 10 pecent humidity and weather is to remain the same for the next burn period.

Weather Discussion: Winds will increase over northern California, southeast Oregon, the Great Basin, Montana, Wyoming and the northern Plains. Isolated thunderstorms with limited moisture are possible in Montana, Wyoming, and parts of the southern Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions will continue in southern California. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois - Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for Winnebago and Stephenson Counties are scheduled to begin on August 13, 2007 as a result of severe storms and flooding.

Ohio - The Small Business Administration (SBA) began damage assessments in Cuyahoga and Lorain Counties on August 9, 2007 as a result of flooding that occurred on August 7, 2007.

Minnesota - The State requested a Joint PDA for Public Assistance, as a result of the bridge collapse, to begin Monday, August 13, 2007.

New York - Individual Assistance PDAs for New York City are scheduled to begin on Monday, August 13, 2007, as a result of severe storms on August 8, 2007.  (FEMA HQ)