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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 12, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South
The heat wave that started last week from the South to the southern half of the Plains is forecast to continue well into the upcoming week.

A heat index of 110-120 is expected across the Southeast Coast, 110-115 across the Ozarks, and 100-109 elsewhere around the South and Southeast.

The extreme drought is expected to continue across the Southeast over the next few days.
Scattered thunderstorms are probable along the Georgia Coast and across the Florida Peninsula.

Northeast
Temperatures throughout the Northeast are expected to be in the 80s and 90s.

Showers are possible around the eastern Great Lakes by afternoon.

Midwest
The heat index is forecast to run between 100-110 degrees from western Illinois to central Kansas and central Nebraska.

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are forecast across the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado.  There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms across the Dakotas and around Michigan.

West
An upper-level high pressure area moving westward is expected to increase temperatures across the Four Corners' states and the Desert Southwest.

A few showers are possible around the Pacific Northwest Coast. (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Flossie Update

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Sunday, August 12, Flossie continues as a Category Four hurricane, with the intensity adjusted to 135 mph. The current movement remains toward the west at 14 mph as Flossie tracks south of a subtropical ridge 875 miles east-southeast of the Big Island.

There is a general agreement for a west-northwest track for days 1 and 2. However there is uncertainty with the models beyond day 2 whether the track will move further northward or remain on the southern track.  The outcome will be dependent on the strength of the subtropical ridge and influence of the vertical shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures after day 2. The official forecast for now favors the previous forecast, with a small adjustment closer to the Big Island.

The expectation of Flossie approaching cooler sea surface temps in the next day or so, and atmospheric systems after day 2, should contribute to a steady weakening with the intensity forecast to drop below hurricane strength after day 3. It is important to note that although the current forecast keeps the center of Flossie south of the Hawaiian Islands, if Flossie is able to maintain its intensity, the track will be toward the northwest and close to the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore, it could still bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of the islands early next week based on the current forecast.

The current Hurrevac models on the present forecast track show Flossie passing 69 miles SSW of the Big Island on Wednesday, August 15, at 0600 EDT. Winds at that time are forecast to be in the 60-70 mph range.  Tropical Force winds extend outward up to 85 miles.

Local forecasts for the Big Island at this time include increased trade winds and showers in advance of Flossie beginning Monday.  Small Craft Warnings and High Surf Advisories for east facing shores can be expected as well. 

FEMA Region IX will have an on-call staff through Sunday and will activate to Level III at 10:00 am EDT on Monday, August 13. 

Region IX is activating and deploying ERT-A to Oahu on Monday, August 13 and deploying a State Liaison to the Hawaii State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) on Sunday, August 12.  Emergency Support Function (ESF) Three is also being activated.  No support from FEMA Headquarters has been requested at this time.

The SEOC is staffing a 12-hour hurricane watch, 7:00 am - 7:00 pm HDT (1:00 pm - 1:00 am EDT) on Sunday.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur at it moves westward into the Yucatan Peninsula at about 10 mph.

A strong tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.  Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization; however, conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system.  A tropical depression could form during the next day or two as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Sunday, August 12, 2007, Hurricane Flossie was located about 875 miles east-southeast of the Hilo, Hawaii and moving toward the west at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were 135 mph with higher gusts.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No new systems affecting U.S. interests.  .( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 4.4 earthquake was reported Sunday, August 12, 2007 at 3:43 a.m. EDT, off the coast of Oregon, 347 miles west of Portland, Oregon. Depth 6.1 miles. No reports of damage or tsunami.

A magnitude 4.6 earthquake occurred Saturday, August 11, 2007 at 4:12 pm EDT, 15 miles north-northeast of Hagatna, Guam.  Depth 80.4 miles.  No reports of damage or injuries. (USGS, NOAA, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center).

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
States Most Affected:  Montana and Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 11, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Heavy (304)
• New large fires: 10
• Large fires contained: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 42
• 2007 acres burned to date: 5,573,900

Weather Discussion: Windy weather conditions are predicted for the western states.  Thunderstorms are forecast for Montana and Wyoming today.  Warm and dry conditions are expected in California.   (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois - Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for Winnebago and Stephenson Counties are scheduled to begin on August 13, 2007 as a result of severe storms and flooding.

Ohio - The Small Business Administration (SBA) began damage assessments in Cuyahoga and Lorain Counties on August 9, 2007 as a result of flooding that occurred on August 7, 2007.

Minnesota - The State requested a Joint PDA for Public Assistance, as a result of the bridge collapse, to begin Monday, August 13, 2007.

New York - Individual Assistance PDAs for New York City are scheduled to begin on Monday, August 13, 2007, as a result of severe storms on August 8, 2007. (FEMA HQ)