• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Saturday, August 11, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South
Parts of the Southeast will remain hot and humid well into next week. The extreme drought will continue over parts Tennessee, Alabama and western Georgia as little or no rainfall is likely for awhile.

From Oklahoma and Texas to Tennessee, Alabama and into southern Georgia, high temperatures from the upper 90s to 105 will prevail. Dallas is likely to see its first 100 degree day of the season this weekend and well over 100 degrees by Sunday.
 
Northeast
Most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be mostly sunny and dry. Highs in the 70s and 80s on Saturday will creep up to the 80s and low 90s on Sunday.

By Monday, another cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms. After a very warm Sunday, temperatures will then fall behind the front.

Midwest
Scattered strong thunderstorms will push eastward from the Dakotas through Minnesota and into Wisconsin by late Saturday.

High temperatures at or over 100 will extend from Kansas to the lower Ohio Valley by Sunday as 90s surge into southern Wisconsin and southern Michigan.

West
The Southwest will be hot with highs around Death Valley approaching 120, but at least no 100s are expected to return to Idaho and Montana.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast each day over parts of the Four Corners' states and could eventually expand westward into southeast California and northward into Wyoming.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Flossie Update

As of 5:00 am EDT, Saturday, August 11, 2007, Flossie was about 1100 miles southeast of Hawaii, and continues due westward at about 14 mph.  Flossie has undergone rapid intensification overnight.  Based on this information, the initial intensity has been raised to 115 mph, and Flossie is now a Category Three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale.
 
For the next 36 to 48 hours, some further strengthening is anticipated, possibly even more than forecast, however after two or so days the cyclone should encounter cooler waters and an increase in vertical shear. 
 
Flossie continues to be steered westward, and the overall model guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will move toward the west or west-northwest for the next two or three days.  The official track forecast essentially splits the difference between the models, and is close to the previous forecast.

This is the last advisory on Flossie from the National Hurricane Center.  Future advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Based on Hurrevac, using current NHC forecast data, the closest point of arrival to the Hawaiian Islands would be Wednesday, August 15, 0600 EDT.  Winds forecasted to be in the range of 65-75 mph, 119 miles SSW of Hilo, Hawaii. With outer wind bands at 80 miles from the center, no damaging winds are predicted on the Islands. 

Local forecasts for Hawaii indicate increase in clouds and rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly the Big Island and Maui, and a general increase in the trade winds. High Surf Advisory conditions of at least the eight foot threshold would exist by Monday evening on the southeast shores of the Big Island.

FEMA Region IX has alerted all rostered Blue ERT-A and RRCC team members to be ready to activate and/or deploy as early Sunday, August 12, if necessary.  Region IX also advised and coordinated with other Federal agency ESF team members, FEMA's Pacific Area Office and the Hawaii Logistics Center regarding a potential activation for Hurricane Flossie. There have been no activations or deployments at this time.  

Region IX will continue to move forward with Hurricane Flossie monitoring activities in coordination with the National Weather Service and Hawaiian State Civil Defense.

Power Restoration after Severe Weather in Southwestern PA

Duquesne Light Company crews continue to restore electric service throughout the afternoon, and as of 10 pm, approximately 15,000 customers remain without service as the company has brought back 75,000 customers after yesterday's violent thunderstorms. The company is expecting system restoration by late afternoon Sunday.

Allegheny Power expects the remaining outages for customers in their areas to be restored by midnight Saturday.(Allegheny Power, Duquesne Light, NICC, FEMA Region III)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A broad surface trough over the western Caribbean Sea currently has minimal associated shower activity.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as it moves.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
As of 5:00 am EDT, Hurricane Flossie was located about 1,100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii moving towards the west at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 mph.  Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No new systems affecting U.S. interests. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 5.1 earthquake occurred Friday, August 10, 2007 at 4:11 pm EDT, 20 miles north of Hagatna, Guam. Depth 32 miles.  No reports of damage or injuries. (NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center).

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:   5
States Most Affected:   Montana and Idaho
National Fire Activity as of Friday, August 10, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (213)
• New large fires: 9
• Large fires contained: 3
• Uncontained large fires: 34
• 2007 acres burned to date: 5,548,273
  Sleeper Lake Fire: Sixty-one miles west of Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan.  Residences are threatened. 18,158 acres with 10% containment.  Reduction in acreage is due to more accurate mapping.

Weather Discussion: Windy over Idaho and Montana today.  A dry cold front will bring dry, windy weather along with some thunderstorms to Idaho and Montana.  Dry, gusty winds are also expected over portions of the Great Basin, Wyoming and the Dakota's.  Warm, dry weather is expected today over California.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois - Individual Assistance and Public Assistance PDAs for Winnebago and Stephenson Counties are scheduled to begin on August 13, 2007 as a result of severe storms and flooding.

Ohio - The Governor has requested a survey in Cuyahoga County from the Small Business Administration (SBA), as a result of flooding on August 7, 2007. The SBA survey has begun and they will also look at contiguous counties.

Minnesota - The State requested a Joint PDA for Public Assistance, as a result of the bridge collapse, to begin Monday, August 13, 2007.

New York - Individual Assistance PDAs for New York City are scheduled to begin on Monday, August 13, 2007, as a result of severe storms on August 8, 2007, and continuing.  (FEMA HQ)