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National Situation Update: Friday, August 10, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Forecast Summary

South
Very hot and humid conditions are expected to continue throughout the region. High temperatures from the upper 90s to 105 are expected from Oklahoma and Texas to Tennessee and Alabama. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula.

West
High temperatures at or below average are expected along the West Coast. The Desert Southwest is expected to see highs between 110 and 120. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the southern Rockies.

Midwest
Very hot conditions are expected across the southern portions of the Midwest. The Plains are expected to see highs in the 90s and lower 100s.

Northeast
Localized heavy rain is expected across parts of eastern New York and New England. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Mid-Atlantic region. Virginia is expected to see highs ranging from 90 to 100.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Update - 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released the updated Atlantic 2007 Hurricane Season Outlook Thursday, slightly reducing the number of named storms, while maintaining its predictions for an above-normal hurricane season. 

The updated Outlook still calls for an above-normal hurricane season with 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.  This contrasts with the May 2007 forecast, which called for 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. In a typical season there are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Similar seasons have averaged 2-4 U.S. land-falling hurricanes.  There have been three Atlantic named storms so far this season, (Andrea, Barry and Chantal), but none became hurricanes.

La Nina conditions like cooler-than-expected ocean surface temperatures through early August has led the NOAA team to slightly tighten the ranges that had been given in their May outlook.

Severe Weather and Flooding in Southwestern PA

The Pennsylvania Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) was activated to Level III by PEMA on August 09, 2007 at 1720 hrs EDT due to severe weather and weather-related events including flooding in southwestern Pennsylvania. 

The Mayor of the City of Pittsburgh declared a State of Emergency for the City. Washington County, Westmoreland County, Indiana County, Somerset County, Beaver County and Fayette County report trees and wires down, basement and street flooding, and power outages prevalent throughout the areas.

The County of Allegheny is in the process of declaring a State of Emergency. Allegheny County has its Emergency Operations Center fully activated with all Emergency Support Functions staffed. 

Eight municipalities have declared and two additional municipalities are expected to declare an emergency as well. 

Power outages include approximately 125,000 customers and affect hospitals and public works facilities including traffic lights. Gas outages are sporadic throughout western PA due to localized flooding. Areas affected include parts of Allegheny, Fayette, Armstrong and Westmoreland Counties. Approximately 300 customers are without gas service in Millvale and Etna Boroughs. Utility companies are responding to outages and making restorations as conditions allow. 
 
Damages include building collapses, fires, trees and wires blocking roadways. No fatalities have been reported. Approximately six injuries are considered to be attributed to the event.

Shelters have been activated by the American Red Cross in Millvale, East McKeesport, Turtle Creek, North Versailles and Oakmont. Approximately 80 families have been evacuated from the Oakmont Commons due to rising water.
 
Allegheny County EOC remains open. The Westmoreland County EOC had been open, but terminated activities at 2204 hrs EDT. The State EOC will continue to monitor the situation and provide support as required. (FEMA Region III)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
Thunderstorms formed over the central Caribbean Sea just north of Jamaica southward in association with a surface trough. Any additional development is expected to be slow as the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Flossie was located about 1,525 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii moving towards the west at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained at 63 mph gusting to 75 mph.
In the next four to five days, the cyclone is expected to be over cooler waters and in a more sheared environment resulting in Flossie weakening a bit; however, the possibility remains for Flossie to still become a hurricane.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No new information to report.  ( NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level:  5
• States Most Affected:  Montana and Idaho
• National Fire Activity as of Thursday, August 9, 2007:
  
  • Initial attack activity: Light (139)
  • New large fires: 1
  • Large fires contained: 3
  • Uncontained large fires: 36
  • 2007 acres burned to date: 5,460,184

Weather Discussion: Wet and dry thunderstorms are predicted for eastern Oregon, central Idaho, and Montana. Warmer and drier conditions are expected for the western states. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)