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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 4, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Update - Recovery Operations in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Recovery operations continue at the I-35W Bridge collapse in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The State EOC reports a total of five fatalities. The City of Minneapolis reports 79 persons injured. Divers had better visibility on Friday, but did not recover any bodies from vehicles they were able to get to. Debris, currents, and ebbing continue to affect recovery efforts. The weather for today may impact operations, as there is a 60 percent chance of severe weather. 

Emergency Declarations have been issued by the Mayor of Minneapolis and the Governor. The State EOC remains fully activated and will be operational from 0800 - 1800 hrs CDT daily over the weekend.
The USCG established a safe zone on the Mississippi River between mile markers 847 and 854.

The Region V RRCC remains activated at Level III. The region has a State Liaison, Public Assistance and External Affairs Officer in the Minnesota State EOC. The FBI, USACE, USCG, EPA, DOT, OSHA and NTSB are on scene. First Lady Laura Bush visited the site and the victims' families Friday morning. President George W. Bush will visit the site today.

The Federal Highway Administration (DOT) confirmed that their Emergency Relief funds will cover bridge restoration costs, debris removal, and site security. (FEMA Region V, NGB JOC, DHS NOC, NICC, NRCC, Media).

Noted Hurricane Researchers Lower 2007 Hurricane Forecast Slightly

This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be calmer than initially expected, however Colorado State University researchers still predict 2007 will be more active than usual. Philip Klotzbach and William Gray are predicting a total of 15 named storms for the season, with eight expected to become hurricanes and four becoming intense hurricanes of category three or higher. In late May, the scientists predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes. The average between 1950 and 2000 is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. (Media Sources)

National Forecast Summary

South
Thunderstorms are expected across Florida, eastern South Carolina, and southern Georgia. High temperatures will average in the 90s across the region.

West
Showers and thunderstorms are expected from eastern Nevada and the lower Colorado River Valley to Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. This continues the heightened risk for additional, but localized flash flooding in the region. The air will be muggy across the Southwest, but high temperatures are expected to be as much as ten degrees below average.

Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms are expected from South Dakota to the southern Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorms could be severe and produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. Temperatures in the 90s will continue across the Central Plains, Missouri, and the Ohio Valley.

Northeast
The cold front that brought severe thunderstorms to the Northeast on Friday is expected to exit the New England coast and stall over the Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected across southern New Jersey and the southern Mid-Atlantic region. (NWS, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new information to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:
A strong tropical wave moving rapidly westward over the western Caribbean Sea is expected to bring showers and squalls to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras today.  Upper level winds have become a little more favorable for development; but proximity to the coast of Central America will likely hinder significant development.
 
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with a broad low pressure area located about 625 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  However, some slow development of this system is possible before it moves over cooler waters in a couple of days.

The area of disturbed weather centered about 675 miles south of Manzanillo Mexico remains poorly organized within the intertropical convergence zone.  Any development of this system is likely to be slow to occur.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Storm Usagi continues to weaken, heading out over the Sea of Japan. No further warnings on this system will be issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Alaska - A 4.9 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Andreanof Islands, Alaska (approximately 1,336 miles west-southwest of Anchorage, Alaska) at a depth of 3.3 miles, at 0040 hrs EDT.  An additional earthquake of magnitude 3.3 also occurred in the region at 0046 hrs EDT.  There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami warning was issued.(NOAA, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center).

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Missouri - As a result of severe storms and flooding June 10-30, 2007, Individual Assistance PDAs for nine counties, which began on July 16, 2007, and Public Assistance PDAs for 10 counties, which began on July 23, 2007, are ongoing as many areas are still inaccessible and underwater.

North Dakota - Public Assistance PDAs for Cass and Ransom Counties as a result of severe storms on July 15, 2007 have been completed.  (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level:  5
National Fire Activity as of Friday, August 3, 2007:

• Initial attack activity: light (148)
• New large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 33
• 2007 acres burned to date: 5,213,838

Continued Significant Fire Activity: Structures remain threatened and evacuations remain in effect for fires in the Northern Rockies Area, Eastern Great Basin Area, Northwest Area and Southern California Area. The National Interagency Fire Center notes that many of these fires will require a season ending weather event to suppress the fire due to fuels conditions and the location of the incidents.

California - Zaca Fire: The Santa Barbara County Sheriff's Department and Zaca Fire officials elevated the 1400 hrs PDT "Evacuation Warning" to an immediate "EVACUATION ORDER" for the residents and visitors of the Paradise Road and the Lower Santa Ynez River Road to Gibraltar Dam. A shelter has been established at Dos Pueblos High School in Goleta. The fire is moving toward Paradise, threatening an additional one hundred homes that are currently under an evacuation warning.

Montana - A Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT) is managing the Ahorn, Novak, Little Wolf Creek, and Meriweather Fires, located in Northwestern Montana. The Montana National Guard is assisting with the fires.

• The Meriwether Fire, 37 miles northwest of Helena, MT is threatening 91 primary and two outbuildings. The Lewis and Clark Sheriff's Office lifted several evacuation orders; however American Bar and Beaver Creek residents remain under an evacuation order. The Red Cross is operating a shelter at the Wolf Creek School.
  
• Mile Marker 124 Fire, 19 miles southeast of Missoula, MT is threatening 200 primary and 100 outbuildings. Power lines for three major utilities were downed by fire along with telephone service. Cell tower and aircraft navigation beacons are without power. A 12 to 36 hour evacuation notice was given to residents of Wallace Creek.
  
• The Sawmill Complex (three fires 22 miles southeast of Missoula, MT) is threatening 190 primary, seven commercial, and 340 outbuildings. As of 1548 hrs MDT the MT DES confirmed that the Granite County Sheriff's Department ordered a mandatory evacuation for Williams Gulch and Wild Rose areas in the South Rock Creek drainage immediately.

Weather Discussion: Thunderstorms and winds are the main concern over the weekend. Thunderstorms, some of them dry, will be scattered across Idaho and Montana, with wetter storms to the south. Winds will be on the increase from the Cascades through Idaho and Montana and along the sierra Mountains through Nevada.

Fire Weather Watches are posted for Wisconsin due to windy conditions and low relative humidity; and across Eastern Washington, northern Idaho, northwest Montana, western Nevada, and northeastern California for gusty wind conditions. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, InciWeb, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Vermont - On August 3, 2007 the President signed major disaster declaration FEMA-1715-DR for Vermont for severe storms and flooding that occurred July 9-11, 2007. Public Assistance for Orange, Washington, and Windsor counties was approved; and all counties in the State of Vermont are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The Federal Coordinating Officer is Michael L. Parker of the National FCO Program.

Oklahoma - Amendment No. 5 to FEMA-1712-DR-Oklahoma adds four counties for Individual Assistance only and eleven counties for both Individual Assistance and Emergency Protective Measures (Category B), limited to direct Federal assistance under the Public Assistance program.

North Dakota - Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-1713-DR-ND adds two counties for Public Assistance.(FEMA HQ)