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National Situation Update: Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Areas of heavy rain will create flooding problems for parts of eastern Texas and southwest Louisiana. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts. Hail and locally gusty winds will be the main concern, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. Rain will expand northward into Arkansas and Tennessee, and eastward through Mississippi.

Midwest
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected from the lower Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms could be severe over parts of Indiana, Ohio and northern Kentucky. Rain may change to snow showers over the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest.

Northeast
Showers will be expanding across the Northeast as a cold front approaches the region. Along with melting snow, rain will significantly increase the threat for river flooding across parts of Upstate New York and Pennsylvania.

West
Much of the West, especially the Southwest, will remain dry and very warm. Look for a few showers across western sections of Washington and Oregon plus rain and snow showers in the northern Rockies. Highs should range from the 30s in the northern Rockies to the 90s in southeast California and southwest Arizona. (NWS, media sources)

Spring Flood Risks

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued its 2007 National Hydrologic Assessment as of March 9th. 

According to the NWS assessment, recent heavy rain has caused ongoing flooding from parts of Nebraska through Iowa into Michigan and the Ohio Valley, contributing to the elevated risk for additional flooding this spring.

Plentiful snowpack in parts of Colorado has led to average to above average flood risk, while other areas with sub-normal amounts of snow have lower flood risk.

The combination of near to above normal precipitation over the winter and saturated soil conditions compensate for the lack of snow leading to an average flood risk in parts of the southern Plains and Midwest through to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic with an elevated risk for flooding due to river ice in Maine.

Drought conditions, dry soils and subnormal precipitation led to a below average risk of flooding across much of the western U.S. and the Southeast.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall at any time can lead to river flooding, even when overall river flood potential is considered below average and ice jams can cause rapid water level rises on rivers with significant ice accumulation. (NWS)

Spring Flood Concerns in the Regions

As spring approaches, so does the threat of flooding and ice jams along rivers and streams. Forecasted high day and overnight temperatures could cause a rapid melt of the snow packs and the potential flood condition in the FEMA Regions.

Region I continues to monitor the efforts to alleviate the ice jam on the Winooski River.

Region III is watching possible minor flooding in Pennsylvania due to incoming heavy rainfall later in the week.

Region IV reports minor to moderate flooding in South Carolina and Georgia.

Regions V along with state and local officials are monitoring river levels in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

Region VI is monitoring river flooding in various eastern and southeastern counties in Texas.

Region VIII watching minor to moderate flooding in southeastern South Dakota.

Region X has reported that rivers in the Pacific Northwest continue to recede after a heavy rain event in the last 72 hours. (FEMA Regions)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Fire fighters have contained the 2,036 acre Windy Ridge or "241" f ire, near Anaheim Hills (Orange County), California. No additional structures were damaged.

Stone Mountain fire, Lee County, Virginia; 300 plus acres. One structure lost and numerous others threatened. No containment date reported. (NIFC, Southern Area Coordination Center Morning Report)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1689 DR, for severe freeze in California January 11-17, 2007. Twelve counties have been designated for Disaster Unemployment Assistance and Food Commodities. The FCO will be Justo Hernandez. (FEMA HQ)