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National Situation Update: Monday, April 9, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

South
Morning lows in the 20s, 30s and 40s.  Highs will reach the 50s and 60s; the southern two-thirds of Florida and southwest and southern Texas into the 70s and 80s.   Scattered showers is expected to stretch from southeastern Louisiana eastward across sout h Georgia and north Florida.   A few light showers in northern Texas. Gusty southeast winds in West Texas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Midwest
Cold will persist in the Midwest and Plains Monday as highs run generally 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages.  Maximum temperatures are expected to range from the 30s to 50s, north to south.  Light snow showers or flurries around the Great Lakes and adjacent parts of the lower Midwest.  Southeasterly winds over the High Plains.

Northeast
Highs are forecast to range from the 30s to the 50s, north to south.  A few 60s will be confined to southeast Virginia.  Snow showers and snow flurries over interior locations: northern New England, upstate New York, and western and northern Pennsylvania. Amounts should be an inch or two downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

West
Rain and mountain snow showers in the Pacific Northwest. Scattered thunderstorms, central Montana and western Wyoming, and into parts of northern California.  Portions of Colorado, New Mexico and eastern Arizona isolated thunderstorms and snow showers. Gusty winds will prevail in much of the Northwest, California and Great Basin.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Global Positioning System Is Impacted By Solar Radio Burst

During an unprecedented solar eruption last December, researchers at Cornell University confirmed solar radio bursts can have a serious impact on the Global Positioning System (GPS) and other communication technologies using radio waves. The findings were announced on April 4, 2007 in Washington, D.C., at the first Space Weather Enterprise Forum-an assembly of academic, government and private sector scientists focused on examining the Earth's ever-increasing vulnerability to space weather impacts. Solar radio bursts begin with a solar flare that injects high-energy electrons into the solar upper atmosphere. Radio waves are produced which then propagate to the Earth and cover a broad frequency range. The radio waves act as noise over these frequencies, including those used by GPS and other navigational systems which can degrade a signal.

NOAA, NASA and partner agencies in the National Space Weather Program are looking to the future needs of our highly technical society, and are anticipating seamless specification and prediction of the atmosphere from the ground to the edges of the Earth's magnetosphere and beyond to the Moon and Mars. The NOAA Space Environment Center is the nation's first alert of solar activity.

Forecasters from the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado, observed two powerful solar flares on December 5 and 6, 2006. These violent eruptions originated from a large sunspot cluster identified by NOAA. The December 6, 2006, solar flare created an unprecedented intense solar radio burst causing large numbers of receivers to stop tracking the GPS signal. Using specially designed receivers built at Cornell University as sensitive space weather monitors, Cornell scientists were able to make the first quantitative measurements of the effect of earlier solar radio bursts on GPS receivers. Extrapolations from a previous moderate event led to the prediction that larger solar radio bursts, expected during solar maximum, would disturb GPS receiver operation for some users.

"In December, we found the effect on GPS receivers were more profound and wide spread than we expected," said Paul Kintner, Ph.D., professor of electrical and computer engineering at Cornell University. "Now we are concerned more severe consequences will occur during the next solar maximum (approxmately 2011)."

"NASA wants to better understand this solar phenomenon so we can limit the adverse impacts on real-time systems," said Tony Mannucci, Ph.D., principal technical staff and supervisor, Ionospheric and Atmospheric Remote Sensing Group at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

There are three key points to remember about solar radio bursts.

"First, society cannot become overly reliant on technology without an awareness and understanding of the effects of future space weather disruptions," said Anthea Coster, Ph.D., MIT Haystack Observatory. Second, the December 6 event dramatically shows the effect of solar radio bursts is global and instantaneous. "Third, and equally important, the size and timing of this burst were completely unexpected and the largest ever detected. We do not know how often we can expect solar radio bursts of this size or even larger." (Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2831.htm )

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)