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National Situation Update: Friday, November 16, 2007

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather

West:
A cold front moving over the Pacific Northwest from a low pressure system in Canada is producing rain and snow in higher elevations over Washington and Oregon.  The precipitation will move eastward into Idaho and Montana through the weekend.  High temperatures will be slightly below average along the coast but the Desert Southwest will reach the 80s.

Midwest:
Under high pressure much of the region will be dry and sunny, except for some snow showers east of Lake Michigan and across northwest Ohio.  Highs will range from the 30s near the Great Lakes to the 70s in Kansas (5 to 15 degrees above average).

South:
Under a ridge of high pressure the regional forecast is for dry and sunny weather.  This cold air mass and clear night skies will produce a light freeze in some locations as temperatures drop to the 20s and 30s from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolina and Georgia coasts and northern Florida.

Northeast:
The northwesterly winds on the backside of a low over Maine will produce lake-effect snow across northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York with snow totals reaching five to 12 inches.  Parts of western Maryland and West Virginia could pick up two to five inches of snow by midday.  High temperatures will range from 30s and 40s over much of the region to 50s in Virginia. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various media Sources)

Possible Santa Ana Event Next Week

Northeast winds are forecast to strengthen early next week as a potentially strong Santa Ana wind event develops.  Although there is still some variability in the computer models, chances are good that a Critical Fire Weather Event will take place Tuesday and Wednesday with winds possibly in excess of 60 mph through and below passes and canyons, and humidity at or below 15 percent. (NOAA, National Weather Service)

Svalbard Global Seed Vault

Norway created the Svalbard Global Seed Vault 400 feet inside of a remote Arctic mountain, 300 miles north of the mainland. The purpose of the vault is to protect as many as 4.5 million of the world's agricultural seeds from climate change, plant epidemics, natural disasters or war. Currently, there are an estimated 1,400 seed banks, operated by countries for their own seeds.  The Svalbard vault was intended as a final backup for all other seed banks.  Norway will own the vault; countries sending seeds will own the material they deposit.  The vault is due to open February 26, 2008. (Media Sources)

NOAA Issues Final U.S. Winter Outlook for the 2007-08 Season

In the final forecast update to the U.S. winter outlook, NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters remain confident in predicting above average temperatures for much of the country - including southern sections of the Northeast - and below normal precipitation for the southern tier of the nation. Above average precipitation is still anticipated for the Pacific Northwest, and in the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley.

"La Niña strengthened during October, making it even more likely that the United States will see below-average precipitation in the already drought-stricken regions of the Southwest and the Southeast this winter," said Michael Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. "Recent sea surface temperatures indicate we have moderate La Niña conditions in place over the equatorial Pacific which we expect to continue into early 2008."
   
On average, for December 2007 through February 2008, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict:

• Temperatures are expected to be above average in the Mid-Atlantic states and southern sections of the Northeast in response to the long-term warming trend. La Niña favors drier than average conditions along the mid-Atlantic coast. As always, snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance.
• The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier than average due to La Niña, while temperatures are expected to be above average.
• In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should both be above average.
• The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also expected in the central Plains.
• In the Northwest, precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La Niña.
• Much of California is anticipated be drier than average in response to La Niña.
• Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average.
• Northern Alaska is expect to be milder than average.
• In Hawaii, precipitation is expected to be above average with above average temperatures in the western Islands.
  "Although we are expecting a warmer than normal winter, we do believe there will be fluctuations of warm weather and typical winter weather throughout the season," said Edward O'Lenic, chief, forecast operations, NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071115_winteroutlook.html )

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern and Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings affecting US interests.

Bay of Bengal:
Tropical Cyclone Sidr, with 150 mph winds, slammed Bangladesh's southeast coast late Thursday, killing at least 242 people and forcing the evacuation of 650,000 villagers.  Sidr came ashore at approximately 9:45 p.m. EST Thursday along the India-Bangladesh border as a Category 4 storm, with a 4 foot storm surge that left low-lying areas and some offshore islands under water.  The storm increased in speed as it approached shore and reached land earlier than forecasters had predicted.  As it crossed over land, it began to weaken but still brought torrential rainfall and floods to the low-lying area. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Media Sources)

Earthquake Activity

• At 3:43 a.m. EST, Friday, November 16, 2007, a 5.4 magnitude aftershock occurred near Antofagasta, Chile, 750 miles north of Santiago, Chile at a depth of 21.7 miles.  No damages or injuries have been reported and no tsunami was generated.
  
• At 10:12 p.m. EST, Thursday, November 15, 2007, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake occurred 150 miles south-southeast of Quito, Ecuador at a depth of 73.9 miles.  No damages or injuries have been reported and no tsunami was generated. 
  
• No significant earthquake activity affecting U.S. interests to report. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)