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National Situation Update: Saturday, January 26, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West
A storm off the California Coast will move west then south offshore, before heading inland, and will produce heavy rain in northern and central California through Saturday, January 26, 2008.

The coastal range and Sierra Mountains could pick up as much as eight inches of rain.  Flooding and mudslides could become a significant problem.

Later Saturday into Sunday, January 27, 2008, rain will shift into Southern California, which has already received between two-to-eight-inches of rain.

Flooding and mudslides have already becoming a problem around Los Angeles, especially in the burn areas.

Gusty winds to over 50 mph will accompany the rain from the Sacramento Valley to Los Angeles.

On Sunday, January 27, 2008, rains and flash flooding could shift inland across southeast California, Nevada and Arizona, where local rain totals in the lower mountain elevations could reach one-to-three-inches.

Late Sunday and into Monday, January 28, 2008, the California storm and a Northwest storm will move into the Plains.

Monday, frigid arctic air will begin to return to northern Washington, northern Idaho, Montana and northern Wyoming.

South
A relatively moist and energetic west-to-east jet stream continues to overlay the South with cold and very dry air in place.

Freezing rain and sleet glazed Arkansas, Louisiana and parts of northern and central Mississippi.

Early Saturday morning, January 26, 2008, light sleet and possibly a few flakes of snow will affect Alabama and Georgia.

A cold front will sweep from west-to-east across the South Monday, January 28, 2008, through early Wednesday, January 30, 2008, with showers and thunderstorms.

On Thursday, January 31, 2008, another storm could generate heavy rain from Louisiana to Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia.

Midwest
On Monday, January 28, 2008, highs will be 5-to-20-degrees above average region-wide, ranging from 30s in the north to the 50s and 60s in Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky.

A strong, and possibly damaging cold front will move eastward across the central states, and rain will be falling from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes.

Behind the front, arctic air will move into the north-central states, plunging temperatures to the teens, single digits and below-zero readings, some 10-to-20-degrees below average.

The arctic air will continue into the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley by Wednesday, January 30, 2008, accompanied by lake-effect snow. (NWS)

Midwest Flooding Update

Indiana
Flood Warnings continue for the Kankakee River at Shelby, Indiana, affecting Lake and Newton Counties.  Minor flooding is occurring, and is forecast to continue, but has been forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday, January 29, 2008.

Illinois
Flood Warnings continue for the Rock River at Latham Park, affecting Winnebago County, with moderate flooding occurring and expected to continue.  Ice jam flooding will continue along the Rock River in areas north of Rockford and Machesny Park.

Flood Warnings continue for the Kankakee River near Wilmington, affecting Grundy and Will Counties.  Major flooding is occurring, and no significant changes are expected to occur in river conditions over the next 24 hours, due to cold temperatures.

Warmer temperatures and rain, forecast for late Sunday, January 27, 2008, and Monday, January 28, 2008, may weaken existing ice jams.

Michigan
A Flood Advisory continues for the Grand River near Portland, due to ice jamming, which is affecting Iona County.

Additional ice jams could form, due to cold temperatures.  Above-freezing temperatures are expected to arrive Sunday, January 27, 2008, which should mitigate the risk of flooding.  (FEMA Region V, NWS)

New Director at the National Hurricane Center

A veteran weather forecaster was named the new director of the National Hurricane Center.

Bill Read, the center's Interim Deputy Director since August, 2007, said Friday, January 25, 2008, he had much work to do on hurricane preparedness and public response toward storm warnings.

He also acknowledged meteorologists had not yet ``cracked the code'' on forecasting storms' rapid intensification or weakening.

"Bill has what it takes be the nation's hurricane center director.  He's spent 30 years of his career as a weather professional with NOAA, dedicated to protecting lives from severe weather, much of it hurricanes and tropical storms," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator.

The hurricane center in Miami monitors the movement and strength of tropical weather systems, and issues storm watches and warnings for the U.S. and surrounding areas.  The six-month Atlantic hurricane season officially starts in June.

Read will also lead the other two branches of NOAA's Tropical Prediction Center.  Those branches focus on satellite and radar analyses and developing new techniques for tropical weather analysis and prediction.  (FEMA Region VIII)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Oklahoma
The FEMA Logistics Staff has approved the request for closure of FEMA-1723-DR-OK on February 1, 2008. (FEMA HQ)