National Situation Update: Sunday, January 13, 2008
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Nor'easter Forecast for the Mid Atlantic and New England
Northeast:
A Midwestern low moving into the eastern Great Lakes will produce several inches of snow in the mountains of southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
A low developing along the stalled front off the East Coast has the potential to become a significant Nor'easter.
By tonight the low will be centered off southern New Jersey producing rain from the Chesapeake Bay area to New Jersey with wet snow over eastern Pennsylvania and rain changing to snow over the remainder of New Jersey and New York City. Tomorrow, rain will develop from eastern Long Island to southeast Massachusetts. Snow will fall from New Jersey to New England. Snowfall rates could reach two to three inches per hour and parts of New England could see snow totals of just over a foot. As the storm moves out to sea precipitation from the Mid Atlantic to New York City will end tomorrow morning, across southern New England and Boston tomorrow night and in northern New England by early Tuesday. Changes in the track of the storm will affect the exact location of the rain-snow line.
South
A low will develop near the Carolina Coast on the stalled frontal system extending from the Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Expect rain showers and even a few thunderstorms in Florida along the front. Precipitation in the form of light rain and light snow will spread across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Carolinas by evening. Temperatures will remain above average across most of the Region.
Midwest:
A weak low pressure system over the Great Lakes will produce light snow with minor (several-inch) accumulations from the Dakotas across the Great Lakes. Light rain will change to snow in the Ohio Valley. Flood warnings remain in effect for Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. Some areas, particularly along larger rivers, will remain in flood stage through Wednesday. See graphic at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/ and related links for specific forecasts.
West:
Under a high pressure ridge the Pacific Northwest will get a break in the precipitation. Except for a front moving through on Monday and Tuesday the Region will be much drier in the upcoming week. A strong upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific will shunt Pacific storms into Alaska and the Canadian Maritimes. A weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected across Southern California until Wednesday. Normally the combination of gusty northeast winds and single digit humidity's would trigger red flag warnings. However, due to the recent significant rains, fuel conditions are not sufficiently dry to trigger any warnings at this time. (NWS, Media Sources)
Midwest Severe Weather Update
Major flooding continues along the Kankakee and Wabash Rivers in Indiana however, most other rivers have crested and began to significantly recede. The Kankakee and Wabash Rivers are not forecasted to crest until Monday, January 14, 2008. Crests of the Wabash River is moving past Covington, IN, and is approaching Terre Haute with water expected to reach 8 feet above flood stage late Sunday night, January 13, 2008. Light rain continues to fall in central Indiana but will subside early Sunday morning.
FEMA Region V has identified members for Preliminary Damage Assessment Teams to respond if any States request assistance.
Indiana
The Emergency Operations Center will be partially activated with 24 hour operations through the weekend.
Flood Emergencies remain in effect for both Oakdale and Norway dams.
No State Disaster Areas have been declared, however; the following counties have been declared Disaster Areas: Newton, White, Pulaski, Jasper and Cass counties.
Indiana Dept of Homeland Security reports 6 shelters open with 45 evacuees.
Middlebury in Elkhart County reporting Sewer System Emergency.
Three fatalities were contributed to flood waters.
There have been no requests for Federal Assistance at this time. (FEMA Region V & IDHS)
Illinois
The Governor declared Livingston and Iroquois counties State Disaster Areas.
Emergency Management has confirmed two flood related fatalities.
ARC reporting one shelter open with 58 evacuees.
Emergency Management will begin conducting State level damage assessments on January 14, 2008.
There have been no requests for Federal Assistance at this time. (FEMA, Region V)
Eruption of Hawaii's Kilauea Volcano
Kilauea Daily Update issued Jan 12, 2008 10:26 HST Volcanic-Alert Level WATCH - Aviation Color Code ORANGE.
The eruption of Kilauea Volcano that began in 1983 continues at the cinder-and-spatter cone of Pu`u `O`o (pronounced Poo' oo Oh' oh) (high point on skyline). Lava erupting from the cone flows through a tube system down Pulama Pali about 7 miles to the sea.
Activity Summary for last 24 hours: The channelized `a`a (pronounced ah-ah) type lava flow that threatened the Royal Gardens subdivision has stalled and is only active within a few hundred yards of its source. There is no longer an immediate threat to the upper portion of the Royal Gardens subdivision. (Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO):
Volcano-Warning Scheme for the United States
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has adopted a common system nationwide for characterizing the level of unrest and eruptive activity at volcanoes. The new volcano alert-level system is now used by the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, the Long Valley Observatory, and the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.
| Table 1. SUMMARY OF VOLCANIC-ALERT LEVELS | |
| NORMAL | Typical background activity of a volcano in a non-eruptive state After a change from a higher level: Volcanic activity considered to have ceased, and volcano reverted to its normal, non-eruptive state. |
| ADVISORY | Elevated unrest above known background activity After a change from a higher level: Volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase. |
| WATCH | Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity (timeframe variable) OR a minor eruption underway that poses limited hazards. |
| WARNING | Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent. |
As part of the alert-level system, color codes (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red) are used to provide succinct information about volcanic-ash hazards to the aviation sector (Table 2). Volcanic activity threatens safe air travel when finely pulverized, glassy, abrasive volcanic material is explosively erupted into the atmosphere and dispersed as airborne clouds in flight paths of jet aircraft. The color codes are in accordance with recommended ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) procedures.
| Table 2. AVIATION COLOR CODES | |
| GREEN | Volcano is in normal, non-eruptive state. or, after a change from a higher level: Volcanic activity considered to have ceased, and volcano reverted to its normal, non-eruptive state. |
| YELLOW | Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background levels. or, after a change from a higher level: Volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase. |
| ORANGE | Volcano is exhibiting heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption, or, Volcanic eruption underway with no or minor ash emission [specify ash-plume height if possible]. |
| RED | Eruption is forecast to be imminent with significant emmission of ash into the atmosphere likely. or, Eruption is underway with significant emission of ash into the atmosphere [specify ash-plume height if possible]. |
(USGS, http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Products/Warn/WarnSchemes.html)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity
PDA's in Missouri and Kansas are ongoing. (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 14-Jan-2008 09:45:46 EST