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National Situation Update: Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South:
A cold front will move out of the central Rockies into the southern Plains and combine with warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will create a severe weather outbreak through much of the South, primarily central Texas, central Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
Thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds and significant rainfall is expected, resulting in potentially deadly flash flooding. Some locations may see two to four inches of rain with locally higher amounts.
Numerous tornadoes, some strong, are likely. The front will move eastward through Oklahoma and Arkansas overnight, and impact portions of the middle Mississippi River Valley by Thursday.

West:
A powerful winter storm moving out of the Pacific Northwest will affect the northern and central Plains today through Friday, generating Winter Storm Warnings and Watches. Significant snow is possible over north central Utah, western and north central Nebraska, and southeast Colorado, including both the mountains and parts of the plains. Strong winds and reduced visibility are expected due to heavy snowfall and blowing snow, especially in the higher elevations. Portions of the Colorado Mountains may see from six to ten inches of snow, while eight to fifteen inches are expected in the Utah mountains.

Midwest:
A significant storm that spread thunderstorms across the central U.S. earlier in the week is moving northeast into the Upper Midwest, resulting in severe winter weather. Six to ten inches of heavy snow could accumulate in central Upper Michigan and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan near Lake Superior by this morning. A Heavy Snow Warning is in effect for northern Michigan and east central Wisconsin through the late afternoon. Isolated locations around the Iron Range may see up to a foot of wet snow.
The western High Plains will see rain develop as a potent storm system moves over eastern New  Mexico. In southwest South Dakota and western Nebraska, snow could mix with rain. By Thursday, the front moving through Oklahoma and Arkansas will impact portions of the middle Mississippi River Valley, bringing rain and severe thunderstorms; large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible. Some areas may experience three to five inches of rain. The rain will increase the potential of flooding from Oklahoma to Illinois, where flood-related Watches and Warnings are in effect.

Northeast:
Coastal areas of the Northeast will be dry today, but a few showers will fall from western New York to West Virginia. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Severe Weather

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect through this morning, Wednesday April 9,2008, for a storm moving across the Great Lakes region. Four to eight  inches of snowfall is expected in northeast Wisconsin. A Flash Flood Watch continues through this afternoon for portions of east central Kansas and Missouri due to an expectation of thunderstorms and rainshowers of two inches generally, heavier amounts possible. Combined with already saturated ground, flash flooding is possible. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through the evening and into Thursday for locations in northern Arizona, southeast New Mexico, and far west Texas for very dry and windy conditions, and high to extremely critical fire danger. Sustained 20 foot winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph are forecast. Winds in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains are expected reach 40-50 mph, with gusts nearing 75 mph. NWS)

Voluntary Evacuation of Volcano, Hawaii

Hawaii County Civil Defense issued a voluntary evacuation order for Volcano, HI due to harmful sulfur dioxide emissions from Kilauea Volcano, in the Volcanoes National Park. Areas affected include the Mauna Loa Estates, Ohia Estates, Volvano Village, Keeauhou Ranch area, and the Volcano Golf Course subdivision. Approximately 2,500 people are affected by this incident. Two shelters are open with a population of three. The duration of the evacuation is unknown. The 93rd Civil Support Team (CST) is assisting County officials with training in plume data analysis and monitoring sulfur dioxide levels and wind direction. At this time, there has been no request for Federal Assistance. (FEMA HQ)

Mississippi Valley Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION

The western Plains will see rain develop today as a significant storm system develops over the southwest and moves into the Mississippi Valley. By Thursday, rain and severe thunderstorms will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and extend into the central Gulf Coast States, producing heavy precipitation over parts of the Lower Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Localized river flooding will continue over parts of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Flood Warnings are in effect for east Texas, portions of central and southern Louisiana, and up through the lower and central Mississippi Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley.

STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
The Arkansas State EOC is minimally staffed. The fatality total is now three, up from yesterday's total of two. Major Disaster declaration, FEMA-1751-DR, declared March 26, 2008. 35 counties are approved for Public Assistance (PA) and 11 counties are approved for Individual (IA). Six Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) teams in the field have completed PA PDAs for 37 of 45 counties that requested assessments. One shelter is open with a population of 29. There were 471 homes destroyed and 151 damaged. Levee and Major/Moderate Flooding update:

• Levees:
  • Green County had an agricultural levee breach which impacted one home.
  • The levee in Prairie County is being reinforced by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) through the use of barrels and sandbags to mitigate the problem. USACE will continue to monitor the levee.
  • One section of levee at Pocahontas, AR remains underwater; locals may attempt to conduct temporary repairs when drainage permits. (USACE)
• Mississippi River:
  • Arkansas City is at Moderate Flood Stage and forecast to steadily rise through April 12, 2008, cresting below Major Flood stage. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
• White River:
  • Newport crested at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to fall below Moderate Flood Stage later today.
  • Georgetown crested on April 8, 2008 at Moderate Flood Stage, and is receding.
  • Des Arc is forecast to crest on April 10, 2008, but remain at Major Flood Stage through April 13, 2008.
  • Clarendon will hold steady at Major Flood Stage through April 14, 2008.
• Black River:
  • Pocahontas is at Moderate Flood Stage. The river is forecast to drop below Moderate Flood Stage April 10, 2008.

Illinois
The Illinois State EOC is operating 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (normal operations). Two fatalities have been attributed to flooding. Nineteen counties are declared States of Emergency. USACE furnished 3 pumps to Brookport, IL and 4 pumps to Karnack, IL. Three pumps were also provided to Smithfield, KY. USACE also provided technical assistance for the community. Joint Individual Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) have been completed in the following counties: Alexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Marion, Perry, Pulaski, Saline, Union and Williamson.
(Region V;USACE)
Major/Moderate River Flooding:

• Ohio River:
  • Cairo is holding steady at Moderate Flood Stage.
  • Grand Chain Dam crested at Major Flood Stage; it is forecast to fall below Major Flood Stage on April 10, 2008, then slowly recede. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
  • Shawneetown is at Moderate Flood Stage and is expected to crest on April 10, 2008, then fall below Moderate Flood Stage on April 12, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
• Big Muddy River:
  • Plumfield crested at Moderate Flood Stage. The river is expected to fall below Moderate Flood Stage by April 10, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
  • Murphysboro is maintaining Moderate Flood Stage; it is forecast to fall below Moderate flood stage on April 12, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
• Little Wabash River:
  • Carmi is at Moderate Flood Stage and gradually receding. The river is expected to fall below Moderate Flood Stage by April 12, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)

Louisiana
The Louisiana State EOC is partially activated. On March 27, 2008, the Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency from March 24, 2008 to April 22, 2008. Nine parishes have declared States of Emergency. Levee and Major/Moderate River Flooding update.

• Levees and Spillways:
  • The New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness is monitoring the flood stages of the Mississippi River and New Orleans Levee system.
  • USACE is considering use of Bonnet Carre Spillway that protects New Orleans and other downstream communities by diverting flood waters into Lake Pontchartrain.
  • Water continues to seep though the needles of the spillway gate bays. The protection dike around the Circle borrow pit developed a 30 ft long breach and it is no longer in operation.
  • The levees around Baton Rouge, LA, protect to a river stage of 48 feet. USACE does not anticipate the levees being overtopped by the current NWS Mississippi River crest forecast of seven feet below max levee height on April 16, 2008.
  • USACE evaluation of flow of water on the river at the spillway has not reached a level where a decision to open the gates is required.
  • There is no expected overtopping based on the current river crest forecast by the NWS for Louisiana. (USACE) Based upon NWS and USACE assessments, no levees will be overtopped and river will crest well below the maximum protection height of the New Orleans levees. (NO OEP/NWS/USACE)
  • Based upon coordination and communication between Region VI, the National Weather Service and the River Forecast Center, there is not a significant predicted rise for river levels due to impending rain. (Region VI)
  • USACE has fortified over two miles of the "Potato Ridge" levee across the Fore Bay to the Morganza Flood Control structure and is continuing to provide engineering support (NICC)
  • The "Potato Ridge" levee was constructed by farmers in the Fore Bay area with the assistance of the State Guard unit. USACE was not involved in the construction; USACE provided technical assistance only.
  • Floodwaters overtopped the sand bags at "Potato Ridge" on April 7, 2008 flooding 3,500 acres of wheat. Sandbagging effort was to protect the wheat fields and its failure poses no danger to population or structures. LA State Police patrolling the "Potato Ridge" levee to prevent vandalism. In addition, they are providing air surveillance to monitor water levels and levee conditions.
  • LA DOTD providing 40 dump trucks to haul sand to sandbagging operations in Vidalia to control "sand boils" below the levees.
  • The ring levee surrounding Angola was intentionally breached to eliminate extensive damage to the levee if overtopped. 5,300 acres of farm and pastureland flooded.
• Mississippi River:
  • Red River Landing is currently at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to continue rising through April 13, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)
  • Baton Rouge is at Moderate Flood Stage and will continue to rise to Major Flood Stage on April 10, 2008. The river is forecast to steadily rise through April 13, 2008. River traffic and industrial activity will be affected. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service)

Mississippi
The Mississippi State EOC is at Level III (Partially Activated w/MEMA and key State agencies only).
There has been one drowning f and 95 people displaced. The Governor declared a State of Emergency for 33 counties on April 4, 2008. Two American Red Cross shelters are open with a population of 13. 18 roads are closed and/or damaged. Mississippi State PDAs indicate 3 home destroyed and 37 homes with major damage. Individual (I) and Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) are scheduled to begin in Hinds County on April 9, 2008. Major/Moderate Flooding update:

• Mississippi River:
  • Greenville is at Moderate Flood Stage and forecast to rise through April 11, 2008. Practically all areas between levees are flooded and approximately 50 buildings have water inside.
  • Vicksburg is at Moderate Flood Stage and rising. The river is forecast to continue rising through April 13, 2008.
  • Natchez is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to steadily rise through April 13, 2008. (Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB, NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
RRCC at Level III, 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. EDT (Mon-Fri).

FEMA Region V
RRCC at Level III, 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (Mon-Fri).
FEMA state liaisons identified for state EOCs, if requested.
IA PDAs for 12 counties in Illinois began April 1, 2008 and have been completed as of April 7, 2008.

FEMA Region VI
RRCC at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (Mon-Fri)
FEMA state liaison deployed to Texas EOC.
Conducting daily conference calls with Texas and the National Weather Service.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) New Orleans District is currently conducting levee patrols/inspections along the Mississippi River and providing technical Assistance as necessary.
PDAs are on-going in Arkansas.

FEMA Region VII
RRCC at Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (Mon-Fri)
FEMA state liaison deployed to Missouri EOC.
PA PDAs are ongoing in Missouri. (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, (Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB,NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The JFO for FEMA DR-1746-KY is closing today, April 9, 2008.
The JFO for FEMA DR-1731-CA is closing April 25, 2008.
The JFO for FEMA DR-1747-IL is closing April 25, 2008.
The JFO for FEMA DR-1745-TN is closing April 25, 2008. (FEMA HQ)