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National Situation Update: Thursday, April 3, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Surface high pressure will keep the Pacific Northwest generally dry with a few stray rain and snow showers in the northern Rockies and Sierra Nevada.  An upper-air trough of low pressure will produce precipitation in southeast Wyoming, Colorado, eastern Utah, northeast Arizona and northern New Mexico.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and evening for all of west Texas and southern New Mexico as strong winds, very low humidity and very high to extreme fire danger spread across the region. High temperatures are predicted to range from the 30s in the Rockies to the 80s in the southwest.

Midwest:
The frontal system stretching across the south will bring additional precipitation to the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. See www.nws.noaa.gov for current Flood Watches and Warnings.  The Ohio River Valley may see up to two inches of additional precipitation in the next 24 hours. Additional flooding is forecast.  Severe weather (thunderstorms, hail, gusty winds and even tornadoes) is possible from southern Missouri across southern Illinois and as far east as western Maryland.  High temperatures will range from the 40s to the 50s across the region.

South:
A frontal system extending from Texas to a low just off the South Carolina coast will produce extensive precipitation across the region.  Severe weather is forecast from west Texas eastward through western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The greatest risk for severe weather will be from south central Texas to Oklahoma and eastward to Arkansas and Louisiana. Locally heavy rainfall will result in localized flash flooding.  Elsewhere, only scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast for much of the Southeast.  High temperatures range from the 40s in the western Carolinas to the 90s along much of the Rio Grande Valley in Texas.

Northeast:
Under high pressure, most of the region will be dry this morning.  The approaching frontal system will bring showers to the Mid-Atlantic by this afternoon and to southern New England by tonight.  Highs are forecast to range from the upper 30s in far northern Maine to the 50s in the Mid-Atlantic. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Mississippi Valley Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION
As discussed above numerous flood warnings and watches remain in effect for the Arkansas/Red, Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio River basins.  Renewed flooding is anticipated with the additional precipitation expected today.  River gauges monitored by the NWS indicate two river locations experiencing Major Flooding and 119 gauges overall in some degree of flood.

STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
State EOC operating at Level III, 8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT (normal operations)
Major Disaster declaration, FEMA-1751-DR, declared March 26, 2008
Counties:  39 affected with 38 under State Disaster Declaration
Fatalities: 2; Injuries/ Missing: pending
Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding/inoperable treatment systems; boil water orders are in effect.
White River at Des Arc at Moderate Flood Stage and will remain at that level through April 07, 2008 
White River at Clarendon at Major Flood Stage; but is forecast to fall to Moderate Flood Stage, Friday April 4, 2008.
One section of levee at Pocahontas, AR remains underwater; locals may attempt to conduct temporary repairs when drainage permits. (USACE)
IA and PA PDAs ongoing:
PA PDAs requested: 39 counties; completed: 22 counties.
Six PDA teams in the field, expected to complete work by COB April 3 2008

Indiana
State EOC operating 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. EDT (normal operations)
All county EOCs have returned to normal operations
Counties:  6 affected with 4 declared States of Emergency
Fatalities:  1; Injuries:  8
Major/Moderate River Flooding:
White River at Petersburg, IN at Moderate Flood Stage; forecast to recede below Moderate Flood Stage by Thursday, April 6, 2008
The Patoka River at Princeton at Moderate Flood Stage; forecast to fall below Moderate Flood Stage Monday, April 7, 2008
The White River at Hazelton at Moderate Flood Stage; forecast to continue to recede through the next week April 7, 2008.
The Wabash River in Mount Carmel will fall below Moderate Flood Stage late Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Local and State PDAs ongoing. No request for Joint PDAs
No request for Federal assistance

Illinois
State EOC operating 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (normal operations)
Fatalities:  2
Major/Moderate River Flooding:
Des Plaines River at Gurnee, IL expected to enter Major Flood Stage, and crest by late night Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Mississippi River at Chester and Thebes, IL expected to enter Major Flood Stage, and crest by late night Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Ohio River at Grand Chain Dam, IL at Moderate Flood Stage; but is forecasted to rise slightly wit the addition precipitation. It will begin to recede on Sunday, April 6, 2008
Ohio River at Cairo, IL at Moderate Flood Stage; but is forecast to rise slightly with the additional precipitation. It will begin to recede on Sunday, April 6, 2008
Mississippi River at Thebes, IL has risen above flood stage and is forecast to rise to moderate flood stage by Saturday, April 5, 2008 before beginning to fall again
Big Muddy River at Plumfield and Murphysboro, IL to enter Moderate Flood Stage within the next 48 hours, and crest Sunday, April 6, 2008 at approximately 6 ft above flood stage, before beginning to fall again
Little Wabash River at Carmi, IL expected to enter Major Flood Stage, and crest by April 3, 2008. It will begin to recede on Monday April 7, 2008.
Illinois requested Joint IA PDAs for 12 counties. Four PDA teams will begin joint IA PDAs on Wednesday April 2, 2008

Louisiana
State EOC operating 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. CDT (normal operations)
On March 27, 2008, the Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency from March 24, 2008 to April 22, 2008. 
St Martin Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP) has submitted a Declaration of a State of Emergency
Mississippi River at New Orleans below flood stage; forecast to remain below flood stage through the forecast period
Mississippi River at Red River Landing is nearly 5 feet above flood stage, continues to rise.  The river is forecast to continue to rise to near 7 feet above flood stage through Sunday, April 6, 2008 
Mississippi River at Baton Rouge above flood stage, will continue to rise to over three feet above flood stage by Sunday, April 6, 2008
Atchafalaya River at Morgan City approximately 2 feet above flood stage; forecast to continue to rise to approximately three and a half feet above flood stage by Sunday, April 6, 2008
USACE projecting no overtopping of levees of the Mississippi based on the forecast from the National Weather Service.  The flooding that is projected is either between the levee and the Mississippi River or caused from backwaters such as bayous and streams that empty into the Mississippi River.
No problems have been identified and there has been no request for State assistance from local parishes.

Mississippi
State EOC at normal operations (24/7)
Risk of flooding increases along the Mississippi through the week.
Flood warnings continue for the Mississippi River at Arkansas City, Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez continue.
The Mississippi River at Arkansas City is experiencing moderate flooding and is expected to crest at approximately 4.5 ft above flood stage before beginning to recede on Sunday, April 6, 2008
The Mississippi River near Greenville, MS is at moderate flood stage today and is expected to crest 6 feet above flood stage by late Friday, April 4, 2008
The Mississippi River near Vicksburg, MS is expected to reach Moderate Flood Stage today and rise to three and one half feet above flood stage and maintain that level through Monday April 7, 2008.
The Mississippi River near Natchez, MS will continue to rise above moderate flood stage throughout the forecast period reaching 5 feet above flood stage. 

Missouri
SEOC activated at level I, 7:30 a.m.-4:30 p.m. CDT (Normal Operations)
A strong cold front moved into Missouri on Monday, March 31, 2008, producing severe storms, high winds and two tornados
The storms on Monday resulted in structural damage to homes, road closures, and power outages in several counties
No Federal assistance has been requested for this event
Fatalities:  5 and 1 missing
Homes damaged, destroyed or affected:  1,243
Businesses damaged or destroyed:  50 estimated
The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO is experiencing minor flooding and is expected to continue rising and crest at moderate flood stage on Friday, April 4, 2008. 
The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO has fallen to minor flood stage and is forecast to continue to fall through late Wednesday, and then plateau at approximately two ft above flood stage before beginning to rise again on Friday, April 4, 2008.
The 3 breaks in levee near Poplar Bluff, MO have been repaired. (USACE)
 IA PDAs for MO DR-1749 have been completed.  PA PDAs are ongoing
 (Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB,NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region VI
Region VI RRCC: Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (M- F)
FEMA liaison officers deployed to Texas EOCs
FIRST Atlanta arrived in Little Rock, Arkansas JFO for FEMA-DR-1751-AR.
Four PA PDA teams performing PDAs in Oklahoma for eleven counties for flooding that occurred March 17, 2008 and ongoing.
FEMA Region VII
Region VII RRCC: Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
IA PDAs in Missouri have been completed; PA PDAs began March 31, 2008.  (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.   (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-DR-1746-KY JFO will close April 9, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1734-WA JFO will close April 7, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1751-AR; at the request of FCO and State, FIRST Atlanta is currently conducting situational awareness operations in the vicinity of Batesville, AR. (FEMA HQ)