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National Situation Update: Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
Lake-effect snow will occur east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Snow will be heavier east of Lake Ontario, where some portions of the Tug Hill Plateau will see over two feet.  A weak area of low pressure will produce light snow over West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

A rain and snow mixture will take place across much of the Middle Atlantic region on February 20, 2008.

High temperatures will range from the teens in northern New York, Pennsylvania, and New England to near 60 along the southeast Virginia-North Carolina border.

Wintry precipitation will move into the region by Friday, February 22, 2008, with a wintry mix in the Middle Atlantic area and several inches of snow across New York and New England.

Midwest
Dangerous wind chills will prevail on February 20, 2008 across the northern Plains and much of the Midwest.

Wind chills may reach 40 below in North Dakota and Minnesota, and approach 10 below in Chicago, IL.

Wintry precipitation will move into the region on Thursday, February 21, 2008.  There may be icy conditions from Kansas to Kentucky and significant snow and sleet from Missouri to the Ohio Valley.

High temperatures February 20, 2008 will range from below zero in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, to the 30s in Kentucky.

West
A series of Pacific storms, each one stronger, will move through the West this upcoming weekend, February 24-25, 2008.

February 20, 2008 will feature rain from Oregon and California into the desert Southwest.

Snow will fall across the Sierra Nevada and then to the Intermountain region.

South
Freezing rain may develop late across the southern Plains into Arkansas on February 20, 2008, worsening into the night.

Kentucky will see a mix of snow and rain, while Tennessee will pick up some cold, light rain.

High temperatures will range from the 40s from the southern Plains to northern Tennessee to the 80s in extreme southwest Texas.

The Southeast has a good chance of accumulating some more much needed rain on Thursday night and Friday, February 21-22, 2008.

The same arctic air mass will keep temperatures only in the 30s and 40s across Oklahoma, into Arkansas.  (NWS, Media Sources)

January 2008: Cool and Wet West Contrasts a Warm Northeast

U.S. Temperature Highlights
The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. during January 2008 was near average, according to an analysis by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F, which was 0.3°F below the 20th century mean of 30.8F based on preliminary data.

Temperatures throughout most of the western U.S. were cooler than average and warmer than normal in the Northeast. The Northeast had its 20th warmest January on record while the western regions (Southwest, West and Northwest regions) had cooler-than-average temperatures. Uncharacteristic warmth in the Northeast reduced energy demand for heating.

U.S. Precipitation Highlights 
An average of 2.21 inches of precipitation fell across the contiguous U.S., which is only 0.01 inch below average. The West and parts of the Midwest were generally wetter than average, while drier-to- much-drier-than-average conditions affected the Plains and areas from the Southeast and mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.

Texas had its fourth consecutive drier-than-average month. By the end of January, moderate-to-severe drought had developed throughout much of the state, aiding in the development of many early-season wildfires.

January was wetter than average for much of the drought-plagued West, with heavy rainfall in areas that included Southern California and much snowier-than-average conditions in the Cascades and mountains of the Southwest. In contrast to the past several years, western snowpack was average to above average at the end of January throughout most of the region.

Wetter-than-average conditions in parts of the Southeast were beneficial to some drought-affected parts of the region. However, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, near the end of January, 26 percent of the contiguous U.S. remained in some stage of drought. This was approximately four percent less coverage than at the beginning of the year.  (Excerpt from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080214_coolwet.html)

Officials Mapping Out Plan To Ease Leadville Flood Threat

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) agreed Tuesday, February 19, 2008, to install a second pump to drain water from the Leadville (Colorado) Mine Drainage Tunnel.

This pump is in addition to one the EPA announced would be installed to avoid a blowout at the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel.

Federal officials plan to drill a shaft into the tunnel and pump water through a new pipeline to a water-treatment plant.

The US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) believes if a blowout occurs, it can provide at least a 24-hour warning.  USBR has several sensors placed inside the mountain.

Additionally, USBR denies there is any immediate threat to residents living near the tunnel.  (NICC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake occurred at 3:08 a.m. EST on Wednesday, February 20, 2008.  The magnitude 7.5 event occurred 960 miles northwest of Jakarta, Java, Indonesia, at a depth of 21.3 miles.  No tsunami warning was generated.  No reports of any injuries or damages.(USGS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)