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National Situation Update: Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:  Much of the West will see unsettled weather over the next few days as a cold trough of low pressure moves into the region. Areas from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies will see plenty of showers and higher elevation snow showers today.  The Southwest will become windy as temperatures begin to drop. There will be plenty of blowing dust to limit visibilities and the fire danger will be elevated.

High temperatures will range from the 40s in parts of the northern Rockies to just over 100 in far southwest Arizona and extreme southeast New Mexico. East of the Rockies 90s will extend northward into southeast Colorado.

Northeast:  A cold trough of low pressure aloft will keep the Northeast unsettled over the next couple of days.  Temperatures will be below average again and a pop up shower is possible anywhere over the region, especially during the afternoon hours.  Temperatures will range from the 40s in western New York state and far northwest Pennsylvania to the 70s in southeast Virginia.

South:  Most of the Southeast will be a little calmer today as a front drops southward toward the Gulf Coast.  There may be a few strong thunderstorms across extreme southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, but the Florida Peninsula will see only isolated thunderstorms.

Forecasts call for strong southwesterly winds across parts of Oklahoma and Texas.
Highs will range to over 100 in parts of southwest Texas and along the Rio Grande River. Much of the Gulf Coast region will reach the upper 80s. (NWS, Media Sources)

Northwest Snowmelt

Current Situation:
Regional rivers are high, and moderate flooding is occurring in Washington and Idaho. Specific river information can be found later in this report.  Today will be the peak of high water events affecting Northwest Rivers. Greatest impact to residences will be in Northern Idaho.  Although river flooding is widespread, potential damage appears limited.  WA and ID emergency management officials are monitoring the events and see little or no probability of requesting FEMA resources.

Washington:
The Naches River in Yakima County is experiencing high volume of water, causing localized flooding in the vicinity of Nile in Yakama County. Observations as of 11:15 a.m. PDT, May 20th revealed that none of the rivers in Okanogan County are above flood stage.

Yakima County declared an emergency on May 16th and Okanogan County on May19th for flooding. Neither county has requested any assistance from the state and have not exceeded their resources to respond to this incident.

Idaho:
Coeur d'Alene Lake level has reached Action Stage and is forecast to peak in Flood Stage on the afternoon of May 23rd.  Possible flooding of homes and businesses near the lake is forecast and conditions are expected to cause high levels in Spokane River for next several days.

Wyoming:
The WY Office of Homeland Security (WY OHS), and the NWS report flooding of the Little Snake River in the vicinity of Baggs.  On May 19, 2008 the NWS reported an estimated 2,000 acres of agricultural land flooded, the river running at bankfull and expected to rise one-half foot each night through May 21.  This will place the river at or just above flood stage each night, producing minor flooding, and as a result, sandbagging of the levee bordering the town of Baggs began on May 19. 

Local jurisdictions are responding as required.  The town of Baggs has declared a State of Emergency and has requested State assistance in filling and placing sandbags to protect infrastructure and homes.  The State is deploying National Guard personnel to assist with the sandbagging and communications to support the additional personnel. 

Montana:
There are several Flood Warnings for rivers throughout northwest and central Montana.  Forecasts are for minor to moderate flooding through May 21 - 22.  (FEMA Region VIII, FEMA Region X,)

NOAA Expects Slightly Below Average Central Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu expects three to four tropical cyclones in the central Pacific basin in 2008, a slightly below average season.  In a typical year, four to five tropical cyclones form or cross into the central Pacific, two of which on average reach hurricane intensity, according to NOAA's National Weather Service hurricane experts.

"Recent data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates La Niña conditions have weakened since February and may become neutral by summer's end," said Jim Weyman, director of NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "We typically see less tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific when La Niña is active or neutral and more activity during an El Niño cycle."

Among the factors considered in the seasonal hurricane outlook, added Weyman, are El Niño and La Niña cycles, decadal variations, and prevailing atmospheric conditions.
For the 2008 season, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is introducing new products and technology to improve customer service. An experimental graphical tropical weather outlook will provide a visual representation of the current text-based product. Tropical cyclone watch and warning products will summarize all current watches and warnings in one location. New video teleconferencing equipment provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency will facilitate collaboration between CPHC and local, state and national officials.

Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle and Lt. Gov. James R. "Duke" Aiona Jr. have declared May 18-24 Hurricane Preparedness Week in Hawaii. They signed a proclamation calling upon government agencies, private organizations, schools and the news media to share information about hurricanes preparedness and are asking everyone to take appropriate safety measures.(Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC))

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant Activity to report.
Eastern Pacific: No significant Activity to report.
Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. Territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On May 20, 2008 at 4:53 a.m. Aleutian Daylight Time (9:53 a.m. EDT),  a 6.0 magnitude earthquake occurred at sea off Rat Island, Aleutian Islands, Alaska at a depth of 29 miles.  This event was not reported felt. No Tsunami was generated.(USGS, PTWC)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, May 20:
Initial attack activity: Moderate (202 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 7

Weather Discussion: Scattered showers are expected today across southern and central Florida. A storm system in the West brought strong, gusty winds to the southern California and western Arizona Tuesday. Today, these winds will expand across the rest of the Southwest, west Texas, southern Great Basin and southern Colorado.   (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Arkansas:
The President has signed FEMA-1758-DR for the state of Arkansas.
The incident is for severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding from May 2, 2008 and continuing.
The FCO will be Kenneth M. Riley.
The designations are as follows:

10 counties designated for Individual Assistance
6 counties designated for Public Assistance. (Direct Federal assistance is authorized)
All counties are eligible for the Hazard Mitigation Grant program.

Nebraska:
Governor Heineman's is requesting a major disaster declaration for the State of Nebraska as a result of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flooding rains during the period of April 23-26, 2008. 
The Governor is requesting Public Assistance for Gage, Johnson, Morrill, Nemaha, and Pawnee Counties and Hazard Mitigation for the entire State.

Maine:
Amendment No. 3: FEMA-1755-DR-ME. The notice amends the notice of a major disaster declaration for the State of Maine. The incident period for this disaster is closed effective May 14, 2008.

Indiana
Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-1740-DR-IN. The major disaster declaration for the State of Indiana for Severe Storms and Flooding 7 Jan 08 and continuing is hereby amended to include Allen and Fulton Counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance.) (FEMA HQ)