National Situation Update: Monday, May 19, 2008
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather
West: Temperatures will continue to retreat in the Northwest and Montana today, but will be on the rise in the Desert Southwest where Phoenix, AZ., may experience record heat through Tuesday. Excessive heat warnings and watches are in effect.
Precipitation will be limited throughout the region. A few showers may push into western Washington late in the day with isolated thunderstorms over parts of Montana and eastern Wyoming.
High temperatures are expected reach over 110 in the Sonora and Mojave Deserts. California's Central Valley will top out in the 90s and low 100s.
Midwest: A weak area of low pressure pushing eastward through Missouri today will trigger scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest. Most of the activity will focus in northern Kentucky, southern Indiana, central Illinois and northern Minnesota, but the precipitation won't amount to much.
South: With the exception of the southern half of the Florida Peninsula, where thunderstorms may erupt, the southern U.S. will be dry. Temperatures will be noticeably above average west of the Mississippi River, and near average east of the river.
Highs will range from the 70s across much of North Carolina and Tennessee to over 100 in portions of West Texas and along the Rio Grande River. (NWS, Media Sources)
Northwest Snowmelt
Current Situation:
High pressure over the region has resulted in dry weather with day time temperatures climbing 15 to 30 degrees above normal breaking many record highs through the region, and resulting in increased runoff and localized flooding from snow-laden drainages.
West of the Cascades will have increased snowmelt from snow-laden drainages until today, May 19th.
East of the Cascades increasing snow melt rises until today with flows tending to crest Tuesday, May 20th in most cases. By today snowmelt rises begin really picking up through the upper Snake River Basin in Idaho.
There was continued flooding this weekend in the Yakima as well as possibly further north off the east flanks of the Washington Cascades and there is a chance for some flooding in north-eastern Oregon.
Expect more widespread flooding from snowmelt runoff to develop through Tuesday, May 20th through northern Idaho and western Montana.
Idaho:
The Idaho EOC Manager reports no significant changes from yesterday's report. The State has an ongoing Declaration of Emergency for flooding which includes Idaho, Clearwater and Shoshone Counties.
Blaine and Kootenai counties have established county declarations but are not included in the State declaration. The EOC reported that USACE had concluded its "Advanced (protective) Measures" for the rivers in Idaho and is continuing its flood fight programs through the weekend.
Washington:
Washington Duty Officer reports no significant changes from yesterday's report. The State is monitoring the Flood Warning for the Naches, Stehekin and Spokane Rivers.
They are monitoring the Yakima River; in particular, a levee continues to potentially threaten a water treatment plant and major power transmission lines in the Nile area.
As of noon May 18th, Yakima County had not filed the State Emergency Declaration mentioned in yesterday's conference call, but did activate it's EOC.
Montana:
A Flood Watch remains effect for portions of central, north central, northwest and southwest Montana. As unseasonably warm temperatures rise from 80 to 90 degrees, above normal snow pack will result in rapid snow melt. There is the potential for streams and tributaries to exceed their banks resulting in minor flooding. (FEMA Region VIII, FEMA Region X, NWS)
2008 Tropical Storm Names
These lists are re-cycled every six years (the 2008 list will be used again in 2014).
Atlantic - Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Eastern North Pacific - Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda,. Zeke
Central North Pacific Names
List 1 - Akoni, Ema, Hana, Io, Keli, Lala, Moke, Nele, Oka, Peke, Uleki, Wila
List 2 - Aka, Ekeka, Hali, Iolana, Keoni, Li, Mele, Nona, Oliwa, Paka, Upana, Wene
List 3 - Alika, Ele, Huko, Ioke, Kika, Lana, Maka, Neki, Oleka, Peni, Ulia, Wali
List 4 - Ana, Ela, Halola, Iune, Kimo, Loke, Malia, Niala, Oko, Pali, Ulika, Walaka
The names are used one after the other. When the bottom of one list is reached, the next name is the top of the next list. (NWS, National Hurricane Center)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Florida Everglades Fire Scorches 33,000 Acres
Almost 33,000 acres of the Everglades National Park were burning Sunday, fire officials said, the latest in a series of wildfires that have scorched parts of Florida in May. The fire is about 30 percent contained.
The smoke cast a haze over parts of South Florida, including Miami, prompting a dense smoke advisory from the National Weather Service. The fire, which threatened private property as well as an endangered bird, started Friday, the Southern Area Interagency Management Blue Team said.
Fire crews were working to restrict it to the park while protecting the Cape Sable seaside sparrow, a federally protected species whose only habitat is in the Everglades. Windy conditions Sunday morning pushed the fire into the corner of the park closest to Miami, fire officials said. About 200 personnel battled the blaze in southern Florida Saturday night, but more crews were expected to join them Sunday.
More than 12,000 acres burned in the "Brevard Complex" fire near Palm Bay, on Florida's Atlantic Coast just south of Daytona Beach. That series of fires is about 75 percent contained and is expected to be fully contained on Tuesday, the National Interagency Fire Center said Sunday. The Brevard County fires have destroyed about 22 homes and structures, and damaged another 160 homes. (INCIWEB, Media Sources)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean: No significant Activity to report.
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity. The Atlantic basin shows a very peaked season from August through October, with 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (Saffir-Simpson Scale categories 1 and 2) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occurring then. Maximum activity is in early to mid September. Once in a few years there may be a tropical cyclone occurring "out of season" - primarily in May or December.
Eastern Pacific: No significant Activity to report.
The Northeast Pacific season is from May 15th to November 30th. This basin has a broader peak with activity beginning in late May or early June and going until late October or early November with a peak in storminess in late August/early September.
Western Pacific: No activity affecting U.S. Territories.
There is no official definition of typhoon season for this basin. The Northwest Pacific has tropical cyclones occurring all year round. There is a distinct minimum in February and the first half of March, and the main season goes from July to November with a peak in late August/early September.
Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st. For additional information see www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Saturday, May 18:
Initial attack activity: Light (109 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 8
Weather Discussion: Hot and dry across California and Arizona, with near record high temperatures in southern California. Significantly drier and warmer across New Mexico and Texas. Chances for showers and thunderstorm will increase across the southern Appalachians along a southward moving cold front. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue for the northern half of Florida. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Last Modified: Monday, 19-May-2008 08:24:22 EDT