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National Situation Update: Monday, May 5, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

West:
Much of the Region will have mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.  However, a disturbance moving through the northern Rockies will trigger isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across northern Idaho and northwestern Montana.
An upper-level low off Southern California will push moisture into the Sierra-Nevada triggering isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Midwest:
A frontal boundary dropping out of Canada will produce widespread showers and isolated thunderstorm activity from Montana to the Great Lakes. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will move into the southern Plains and combine with a weak disturbance moving out of the southern Rockies to produce thunderstorms from the Texas Panhandle to Nebraska later today.  Highs temperatures north of the front will be in the upper 40s and 50s over northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan. South of the front, highs should reach the upper 60s to middle 70s.

South:
A high pressure ridge extends from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley producing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures over the Region. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Southeast coast during the day and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in North and South Carolina during afternoon and evening hours. Red flag warnings are in effect this afternoon and evening for all of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend due to expected long durations of low relative humidity. The southerly flow on the backside of the ridge will produce thunderstorms across western Oklahoma, western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

Northeast:
High pressure building into the Region will produce mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the middle 70s in the south. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Central US Severe Weather:

Widespread severe thunderstorms impacted parts of the Central United States May 1-3, 2008.
There were over 480 reports of severe weather with 70 to 80 reports of possible tornadoes.
Approximately 64 homes were destroyed, and over 852 damaged. There were approximately 10 businesses destroyed, 43 with minor to severe damage.  All States that were affected during the event, except Arkansas, have returned to normal operations.  At the height of the event, FEMA LNOs were deployed to Arkansas, Mississippi and Missouri and placed on alert for several additional States. (NWS, FEMA HQ)
Arkansas:
The State EOC is at Level I, Normal Operations.  The FEMA LNO remains on standby at the Arkansas JFO and is available to deploy to State EOC.  The tarps requested by the state arrived at the EOC May 3, 2008.  There have been seven confirmed fatalities and 23 injuries.  Damage to homes has been reported in eight counties; 33 homes destroyed, 386 damaged, seven mobile homes are either damaged or destroyed, seven businesses destroyed and six damaged.
Joint FEMA/State PDAs to begin today, May 5, 2008.  The Arkansas National Guard (NG) provided 36 Army National Guard soldiers for security. (Arkansas Department of Emergency Management SITREP, 12:00 p.m. CDT, May 3, 2008, Region VI).

Mississippi Valley Flooding

FEMA Regional Offices, State EOCs, and the NRCC continue to monitor Flood Warnings and Watches in the Mississippi River Valley. (Region IV, Region V, Region VI RRCC, National Weather Service, FEMA HQ)

Changes To The Tropical Weather Outlook

Effective May 15, the National Hurricane Center will institute changes in the text Tropical
Weather Outlook and the experimental graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.
The changes include:

• The issuance time of the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic basin will moved to 2 A.M., 8 A.M., 2 P.M., and 8 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The issuance times will be one hour earlier in November during Eastern Standard Time.
  
• The issuance time of the eastern North Pacific text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks will moved to 5 A.M., 11 A.M., 5 P.M., and 11 P.M. Pacific Daylight Time. These times will also become an hour earlier in November during Pacific Standard Time.
  
• The changes to the issuance times will permit the information to be based on the most recent global model guidance. It will also permit both products to be more easily incorporated into the late afternoon and late evening news broadcasts, and will be issued before the National Weather Service forecast offices prepare and issue their local forecasts.
  
• The issuance of the experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook will expand from two times a day to four times a day, coinciding with the issuance of the text Tropical Weather Outlook.
  
• The experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook will now include a three tiered categorical genesis forecast (color-coding) for potential development.
  
  • Yellow: Low-probability of development is less than 20%
    
  • Orange: Medium-probability of development is from 20-50%
    
  • Red: High-probability of development is greater than 50%
    Further information is located at: http://hurricanes.gov/aboutgtwo.shtml (NOAA, NWS, National Hurricane Center)
    

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant activity reported (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Friday, May 2, 2008:
Initial attack activity: Light (46 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires: 7
Weather Discussion:
Chance of thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico and west Texas today with continued low humidity in Arizona.
Southern California will see onshore flow today with mild temperatures and moderate humidity.
The Southeast should have lowering humidity over most areas today  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center,  NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)